Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 250542
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1242 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER NORTHERN WI THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST INTO THE
HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF RAIN AND WINDS AROUND 30 MPH OVER PINE COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

AT MID AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WAS FROM ABOUT INL TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MN. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN. SHOWERS WERE POPPING UP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SO FAR NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED...BUT WITH
MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE LI`S DOWN TO -3...MAY
SEE SOME LIGHTNING. NWRN WI IS STILL IN THE SLGT RISK THUNDERSTORM
CATEGORY...AND IF THESE CLOUD WOULD CLEAR OUT WE WOULD SEE A QUICK
INCREASE IN STORM STRENGTH. WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OF OVR 14,000
FT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH FOR HAIL...BUT COULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OUT OF NWRN WI LATER THIS EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND WARM
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM WANTS TO BUILD A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SWEEP IT EAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS OVERDONE AS DOES THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT THE GFS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THUS...HAVE GONE MORE WITH THE DRIER ECWMF AND CANADIAN MODELS.
THESE HAVE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND BUT NO
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.  OTHERWISE HAVE GONE WITH SOME PRETTY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH HAS SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONSISTENCY IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS...WHICH KEEPS MOSTLY CHANCE POPS...BUT THE
PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  IT REMAINS WARM AND STICKY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

OCCASIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND UNTIL
AFTER 12Z DUE TO FRESH MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS... AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. VIS/CIGS MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE TO MVFR/IFR
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  84  66  83 /  10  10  10  10
INL  60  87  63  86 /  10   0   0  20
BRD  63  85  64  86 /  10  20   0  10
HYR  61  84  63  85 /   0  10  10  10
ASX  63  86  63  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



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