Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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886
FXUS63 KDLH 152355
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
655 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS... GRADUALLY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SFC HIGH RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN. THIS "CLEARING" WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS A BROAD MID-LAYERED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH... AND A WARM FRONT SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW NORTHERLY ACCENT...
REACHING C MINNESOTA AND C WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING. THE STRONG
WAA WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S SATURDAY...
BUT NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER NEAR THE
LAKE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE TO THIS FORECAST WAS THE DELAY TO THE
ONSET OF PRECIP TO AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF/NAM IN A SLOWER NORTHERLY ACCENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER... ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO START EARLIER IN
THE AFTERNOON... PARTICULARLY AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...
WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM. SPC HAS CLIPPED THE SW SECTION OF OUR CWA WITH A
SLIGHT RISK... WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. PWATS
ARE ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WHICH WILL PROMOTE
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA ONCE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

A STORMY START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND
BEFORE THINGS QUIET DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL USHER IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AS WARM FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AS WELL. ON SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
MAY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT OF LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS GENERATE LIFTED INDICIES OF
AROUND -1 OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. FORECASTED CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000 J/KG
RANGE. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH COOLER LOWER 60S CLOSER
TO LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING ENDING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING OR BELOW EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY THAT
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON TUESDAY...GRADUALLY
WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS AROUND KHYR EARLY THIS
EVENING...GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS A SMALL THREAT FOR MARINE FOG AFFECTING THE KDLH TERMINAL
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL
ARRIVE IN THE KBRD AREA AFTER 22Z...SPREADING INTO THE OTHER TAF
SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  62  51  66 /   0  10  60  80
INL  39  72  58  68 /   0  10  60  90
BRD  49  74  63  72 /  10  50  80  90
HYR  46  77  63  74 /  10  30  60  80
ASX  40  66  56  72 /   0  10  40  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCLOVIN
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...GRANING






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