Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 111802
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
102 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Cold front has now pushed into southeastern IL near Interstate
70. Some of the radar returns in the southeast ahead of the
boundary are even eroding to the point of sprinkles instead of
measurable rain. Have pulled back the pops just a touch. Otherwise
the forecast is doing well with predominantly north/northwesterly
winds behind the front and highs in the mid to upper 70s/lower
80s. Brief clearing behind the precip will be limited as is being
overtaken by clouds building in from the north. Potential
regeneration of thunderstorms/precip this afternoon in vicinity of
Interstate 70 will keep the pops in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Convective cluster continues to weaken early this morning, and
basically is limited to showers and a few thunderstorms as of 2
am. The cold front hasn`t reached Illinois quite yet, but is
progged to reach the Illinois River valley toward 4-5 am and
should be in the southeast CWA by midday. What`s left of the
current rain should continue to fade out over the next few hours.
Some redevelopment is possible over east central and southeast
Illinois by late morning as the front reaches that area, and will
continue with a mention of scattered showers and storms in that
area until the front passes. Further to the northwest, some
clearing should take place in the afternoon as high pressure
begins to move southeast out of Minnesota, and the arrival of
drier air ahead of it will allow for temperatures to fall into the
50s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

A fairly tranquil weather pattern is expected to dominate this
period. While the GFS and Canadian models have an expansive
surface high which prevails until about Thursday, the ECMWF
features an upper wave that brings showers and a few storms into
areas from about I-72 southward late Sunday night and early
Monday. The NAM confines it further south toward the Ohio Valley.
For now, will side more toward the drier solution, as the general
consensus over the last few model cycles has been for a southern
track to this feature. The wave arriving in the Thursday time
frame is a bit more robust, although the ECMWF is much more
progressive and largely has it through our area as early as
midday.

While temperatures remain on the cooler than normal side to start
the week, the shift of the warmer pattern from the western U.S.
will be taking place around mid week. This will result in a slow
rise in temperatures during the second half of the week. However,
the Gulf will be cut off much of this period, so it may take until
Thursday to get the corresponding increase in afternoon humidity
levels to more summer like readings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Clouds retreating behind the exiting cold front this morning...but
clear air quickly filling in from the north. MVFR cigs just north
of PIA edging closer, and may be issuing an update shortly as
latest sat imagery is moving closer to the terminal...but will
hold off for BMI. Other than that, sct mid clouds in the wake of
the front, and northerly winds remaining generally less than
10kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...HJS



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