Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 210205
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A cold front will continue to depart to the southeast of Illinois,
as high pressure begins to build into IL from the west. However, a
broad area of cloud cover upstream in eastern Wisconsin and NE
Illinois will continue to stream to the SE and affect our forecast
area mainly northeast of a line from Peoria to Paris. The
additional cloud cover could keep low temps slightly warmer in the
NE areas. Western areas will have more favorable radiational
cooling conditions under clear skies and light winds in the face
of advancing high pressure. That should allow low temps to dip
toward 40 degrees in a few locations west and north of Lincoln.

Clouds should clear out of eastern areas Tuesday morning, for a
mostly sunny day and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Only minor adjustments were needed to low temps and sky
conditions, so no formal product updates will be needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois.  Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset.  Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation.  This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected.  However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west.  This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale.  The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover.  Remaining models not really
holding onto as much.  Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast.  It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck.  Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way.  Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains.  This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather.  As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday.  However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging.  As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA.  Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.

Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend.  Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal.  In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity.  If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains.  As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with mostly
clear skies. There remains some concern about the mass of clouds
in eastern Wisc pushing south-southeast into NE Illinois tonight
and coming close to affecting BMI and CMI. Even if a BKN deck
does develop near BMI/CMI later tonight in that airmass, the
clouds should still be VFR around 4k FT. Those clouds should
depart to the east Tues morning.

Winds will start out NW at 5-9kt this evening, then become
variable as high pressure from MN to KS gradually builds eastward.
After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become NNE around
8-10kt.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon






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