Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 260002
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
602 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUED TO PUSH AREAS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE CWA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE HAS PUSHED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WARMER
WEATHER WAS FOUND FROM MO TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE READINGS WERE
IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WITH JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ENTERING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS SPREADING AN INCREASING/THICKENING AREA
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. 12Z/25
UPPER AIR SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED 210 METER HEIGHT FALLS AT
LAS VEGAS AT 500 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MILD TEMPERATURES BUT REMAINING DRY IN SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE THICKER
CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST. COMBINED
WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH. THESE NUMBERS ARE WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE BUT THE CONCERN AGAIN WILL BE IF I AM A TAD TOO COOL.

FRIDAY...SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE MIDWEST.
INITIALLY THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT LOWER
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AS GULF MOISTURE
BEGINS TO BE TAPPED FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW
LEVELS ARE STILL STARVED FOR SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY
RAINFALL ON FRIDAY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE BY THE TIME WE GET TO
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MUCH
COLDER AND DRY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD.
MINOR INTER-SOLUTION ISSUES WITH RAIN AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS WITH PASSING DISTURBANCE.  LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH PRECLUDES ANY SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.
ANY SNOW TOTALS FAR NW SECTIONS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW AN INCH...IF AT
ALL...AND ON EXPOSED AND GRASSY AREAS.  TRACK OF PRECIPITATION SWATH
CONSISTENT FOR 36 HOURS.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH MOST SOLUTIONS
BL A BIT TOO MOIST.  HI-RES ECMWF THE MOST CONSISTENT PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS AND PREFERRED 70/30 WEIGHTING WITH GFS.  THIS SUPPORTS LIGHT
RAIN EVENT WITH MIXING TO SNOW OR BRIEF LIGHT PERIOD OF SNOW FAR NW
WITH PASSING OF WEAK DISTURBANCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST MOSTLY POST
FRONTAL RAINS WITH MIX OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS ENDS IN NW
1/3 OF AREA.  ALONG AND EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER...A NARROW BAND OF
RAIN OR A RAIN SHOWER SUGGESTED WITH NO APPRECIABLE SNOW. NW OF A
MANCHESTER TO WILLIAMSBURG LINE...SUGGESTS A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY
NEAR A HALF INCH OR SNOW NW SECTIONS OF BENTON AND BUCHANAN COUNTIES
WITH LITTLE IMPACTS TO ROADS DUE TO SURFACES AOA 32F.  TEMPERATURES
TO FALL OR BE STEADY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
ENDING BY MID DAY.  NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15+ MPH ON SATURDAY.  AGAIN
AREA PRECIPITATION TOTALS MOSTLY BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A
.1 OF AN INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES TO BECOME FAIR WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN TO NEAR NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.  AREA LOWS
MAY NEED TRIMMING A FEW MORE DEGREES NW SECTIONS FOR LATER SHIFTS
BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL PARAMETERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLDER AND MOSTLY FAIR TO FAIR AND DRY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY 10+ DEGREES
TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  TEMPS
MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WIND
CHILL VALUES OF -5 TO -15+ IN MORNING HOURS TUE/WED SUGGESTED WITH
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MINS COMMON NW AND LOWER TEENS SE AND WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15+ MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AM WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND
IFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING INTO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY AM...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW AT CID AND DBQ.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05




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