Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 121638
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1038 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

I`ve updated for current conditions and slightly higher winds this
morning, and looking at GFDI (grass fire danger) grids, we are now
seeing very high show up in a widespread basis. This warrants us
advertising this threat in the short term forecast graphics, HWO,
and web story, as well as SPS product. The strong winds of 20 to
30, gusts to 40 mph will diminish by sunset.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Light rain fell across the far northern CWA this morning as an
upper level system moved through the area. To the east of the
area, an baroclinicity zone was quickly turning into a surface low
leading to pressure fall/rise couplet across the area. This
deepening low and cold air advection will drive the weather in the
short term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Main forecast concern for the short term are the winds today as
CAA feeding cyclogenesis to the east of the area. H85 temperatures
will decrease to near -6C today across the area with winds near 50
kts. Mixing of this air will lead to lower temperatures in the 40s
and sustained winds near 20kts. Some gusts near 30kts are possible.
This will lead to a blustery Sunday. On the bright side, it will
be sunny today. Overnight, temperatures in the 20s with clear
skies are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Dry conditions continue and above normal conditions with minor
changes.

Long Term Forecast Assessment...Fair to Good or average to above
average confidence with no sensible weather.  Persistence from
yesterday again supports high temperatures most days with dry ground
supporting highs at least a few degrees higher than the warmest
guidance and the official forecast.

Monday and Tuesday...Very minor changes.  Fair and above normal
temps with highs in the 40s with some lower 50s still appear
possible south on Monday. Mins mostly in the 20s to lower 30s except
colder Tuesday night behind a dry cold front with mercury settling
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Wednesday...Colder with near normal temps. Highs mostly in the 30s
to possibly lower 40s south. Lows Wednesday night in the upper teens
to the 20s.

Thursday and Friday...a warming trend with highs Friday possibly
even warmer by 5 plus degrees.  Highs in the 40s to lower 50s.
Lows in the 20s Thursday AM and mostly 30s Friday AM.

Saturday...Very mild with signals suggesting near record warmth may
be possible, which would be highs well into the 60s or 25 plus
degrees above normal.  Lows in the 30s to near 40F.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

VFR conditions through the period with primary aviation concern
the gusty winds today across the area. Sustained winds of 20kts at
most locations with gusts approaching 35kts could be possible. As
sun sets, winds will slacken.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ervin
SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Nichols
AVIATION...Gibbs



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