Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 281116
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LINGERING STRATIFORM RAINS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF ENDING IN THE NORTH
AND EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY TODAY...AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT NOW IS
POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGHWAY 30 AND INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH IOWA INTO
ILLINOIS. THIS FRONT WILL SEPARATE A MILD DAY FROM ANOTHER COLD DAY
NORTH OF IT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TODAYS FORECAST WILL SEE A STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH FAR LESS WIND AND RAIN. SO IN A SENSE...THE
WORST IS BEHIND US...DESPITE SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH BEING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WHILE FOG MAY BE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
SOUTH EARLY TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SUN POTENTIAL THERE AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SHOULD BE REACHED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TODAY. FARTHER NORTH...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE...ALL DAY...THAT SAME STRATUS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP SOUTH AS WELL..BUT WITHOUT STRONG CAA...MILDER AIR SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY. WHILE THIS
WONT AFFECT A LARGE AREA...IT COULD IMPACT IOWA CITY THROUGH QUAD
CITIES AND ALONG INTERSTATE 80 WITH SLOW MOVING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS...LOCALLY CAPABLE OF A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. FARTHER
SOUTH...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...UNDER A BLANKET OF STRATUS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD NOT RISK ANY FROST GIVEN THE HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUD COVER.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON THE RETURN OF A RAINY AND CHILLY SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY FRIDAY THEN THE RAIN BEGINS TO RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO KS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MO. NICE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF YESTERDAY WHICH WAS TRYING TO BRING
DRY AIR INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA BUT APPARENTLY NOT. PWAT`S RISE TO
OVER 1.30 INCHES WITH WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH.
TOWARDS SATURDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARDS
EXTREME NORTHEAST MO WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THIS SET-UP SEEMS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THE EVENT
LAST EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THIS IS
BASED ON THE ECMWF BUT THE GFS HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING DOWN BY
ST. LOUIS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW OR NONE AT ALL FOR THE CWA.. AS OF NOW SPC
KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
COMPARED TO CONSENSUS MODELS WITH THE RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY
DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WITH A PERSISTENT BRISK WIND
COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH...AND THIS MAY STILL NOT BE COOL ENOUGH.

FOR SUNDAY WE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BASED ON THE ECMWF
BUT THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT MUCH QUICKER. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
MIDWEST SO WITH LESS CLOUDINESS TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO WILL ONLY MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CREATE ANOTHER EXTENDED DAY OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE DAY
AND NIGHT TONIGHT AS EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS CHANGE TO NORTH BY THIS
EVENING. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MINIMUM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
BETWEEN CID AND BRL...WHERE A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FOUND.
AFTER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY 15 TO 18Z TODAY...CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY AGAIN FALL TO PERSISTENT IFR BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS
COLDER AIR SLOWLY SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN



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