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000
FXUS63 KAPX 240801
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
301 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS EXITED EAST OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL TO OUR NW...
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THRU WISCONSIN INTO ERN IOWA.
WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN PER
LATEST BASE REF IMAGES. SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MINNESOTA ATTM...AND IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SNOW AS WELL.

MOISTURE WITH BOTH BOUNDARIES IS RATHER LIMITED PER LATEST NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS. HOWEVER... DEEP/BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES WILL
KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THRU TODAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN AIRMASS. THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY OF AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR SAGINAW
BAY. WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND ANY SNOWFALL REMAINING LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR (WELL UNDER
AN INCH).

SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU OUR CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. SYNOPTIC SNOW CHANCES SHOULD END BEHIND THIS
FRONT AS SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. CAA
SUFFICIENT TO ACTIVATE THE LAKES WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...BUT ONLY EXPECT SOME FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON SHORELINES AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND EVENTUALLY N/NE AND LOW
LEVELS DRY OUT EVEN FURTHER. WITH ONGOING CAA...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A MAJORITY IF
NOT ALL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRACKS THIS SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
AND KEEP MOISTURE JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH SO HAVE PULLED THE PLUG ON
POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR WITH IT. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER IN THE SERIES
OF SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING CLIPPER SYSTEMS THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
WEAKENING BUT MAY COMBINE WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA (ADDED CHANCE POPS). HIGHS IN
THE COLDER MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

INCREASING RIDGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER WILL THEN BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND LIKELY BRINGING FRIGID AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S TUESDAY...THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER
20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE TEENS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR THRU SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SWEEPS THRU THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THRU DAYBREAK AS
WELL. W/SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NW AROUND 10 KTS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MLR