


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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691 FXUS63 KAPX 250520 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 120 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today - Drier air moves in tonight and linger into Wednesday, could result in seasonally cool overnight lows tonight - Widespread rain chances return late Wednesday into Friday, with some locations seeing multiple rounds of heavy rain. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Current radar depicts isolated to scattered showers around northern MI this afternoon as the axis of deepest moisture, riding around a large upper ridge, continues to stream over head. A weak lake breeze has pushed in over NE lower and should allow some showers to strengthen and produce some thunder. Unfavorable wind profiles and deep saturation leads to very low chances for storms to have severe attributes with them. Training of brief heavy rain could be seen along and south of M-72 this evening (low chances). Surface high pressure will continue eastward over SE CAN, turning winds more northerly this evening and tonight. Drier air (Tds in the 50s) will seep in as this airmass reaches M-72 tonight. By this time, the axis of deep moisture will shift to the central/southern areas of the lower penisula. Clear skies are likely over eastern upper and near the tip of the mitt tonight, and when paired with drier air, could result in overnight low temperatures in the high 30s to low 40s over interior locations. Warmer lake surface temperatures and thick vegetation should curb lows reaching into the mid 30s. Wednesday morning, around 200% of normal PWATs move into the SD/MN/IA region. A rather large area of LL convergence exists there due to a quasi-stationay front that is draped all the way northeast into CAN (through central MI). Northern lower and eastern upper are eventually downstream of this action (rain/storm chances Wednesday night through early Friday) as flow around the ridge will put it on a favorable path. Per the CAMs (and the Maddox FF pattern), widespread rain with embedded convection forms on the north side of the stationary boundary (turning into a warm front later Wednesday) which happens to be over central MN/WI. Cyclogenesis will aid in strengthening convection and background forcing as it moves over WI later Wednesday. The warm front will begin to cross Lk MI later Wednesday (timing is still up for debate) brining widespread rain with embedded showers to central MI. Widespread rain with embedded showers will be seen most of Thursday for northern MI. There isn`t anything aloft that will move this cyclone quickly, so it will take its time as it moves over MI - keeping rain and storm chances around through early Friday morning. Heavier rain will be in waves during this time as the cyclone approaches MI (warm front over MI) early Thursday, then moves over MI late Thursday into Friday. The main threat with this will be training of the embedded convection, which at this time looks to occur Thurs afternoon through Friday morning. The W/E warm front will allow embedded convection to generate along the boundary and move from west to east repeatedly - which with PWATs 200% of normal could result in more than a healthy rainfall. Where this occurs is up for debate, but ensembles have been trending towards larger QPF amounts over MI (ECMWF members 24hr QPF mean jumping from 0.61" yesterday to ~1" today). Most locations will likely see a quarter to 1 inch falling over a longer period of time Wed night through early Fri morning, however swath of 2+ inches isn`t out of the question for MI. As for severe potential, 0-6km Bulk shear of 45 to 55kts isn`t bad - but model soundings show most of that above 12ktf (the exception is right along the warm front boundary). With a WCL of around 14kft, most chances for hail is out of the question and damaging winds will be tough to come by. Right along the boundary could foster an environment for quick tornadic spin ups, but still the chances remain low with this. The main threat will be heavy rain. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025 West winds will eventually move the anomalous moisture out of northern MI Friday, with some lingering convection possible through the afternoon hours. More chances for rain/storms this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Some MVFR cigs floating around overnight, especially near TVC/MBL. MBL is the most likely site to have MVFR cigs linger past sunrise. Otherwise VFR with quiet wx into Wednesday evening, though increasing chances for clouds/precip after that. Light n to ne winds. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELD LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...JZ