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000
FXUS63 KAPX 140206
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1006 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOW WILL
ADVANCE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND UP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE EXITING INTO
CANADA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION UP THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ALL RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BUT AN
EAST TO WEST TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA.

ON MONDAY...MUCH COLDER AIR SAGS BACK INTO THE STATE AND WILL CHANGE
ANY REMAINING RAIN OVER TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
BEFORE ENDING. THEN...COLDER AIR SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

...FLOODING EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...

RAIN HAS DEVELOPED IN ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THIS IS OCCURRING IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...AHEAD OF 996MB LOW PRESSURE A BIT SW OF THE QUAD CITIES.
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP IS ALSO OCCURRING IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE IN
FAR NE IOWA/SW AND CENTRAL WI. A SOGGY NIGHT IS CLEARLY IN THE
CARDS...AND MOST OF THE ROUTINE WX ELEMENTS NEED LITTLE CHANGING
IN THAT REGARD. WILL BACK OFF A BIT ON THUNDER WORDING...
RESTRICTING MORE TO SE SECTIONS PER INSTABILITY PROGS AND TRENDS
IN OBSERVED LIGHTNING DATA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR AREAL DISTRIBUTION THEREOF.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE M-72 TIER OF
COUNTIES AND SOUTH. M-55 AND SOUTH HAVE THE STRONGEST CASE...GIVEN
HOW MUCH RAIN THEY SAW LATE SATURDAY. BUT WANTED TO INCLUDE THE
PLATTE AND AU SABLE BASINS (BOTH OF WHICH HAVE INDICATIONS OF
BEING PROBLEM SPOTS PER RIVER GAGE DATA/FORECASTS)...AS WELL AS
THE URBAN AREA OF TVC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

FUN-FILLED FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE MOST
OBVIOUS FORECAST ISSUE BEING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
FLOODING CONCERNS. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A NICE BREAK
ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...COURTESY OF A BRIEF BOUT OF
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...A
QUICK GLANCE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOWS A BLOSSOMING SHIELD OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS A RATHER INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET FEATURE AND
PLENTIFUL GULF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS IMPINGING ON A STRONG LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOWN
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALL WHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING COUPLED JET
FORCING IS ONLY ADDING TO THE MIX. THIS WHOLE SETUP IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...HELPING SET UP A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WHILE THAT SOUTHERN WAVE
WORKS NORTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS: FROM A FORECAST PERSPECTIVE...ALL THINGS
ARE A GO FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...
AS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS OVERRUN WITH PWAT VALUES UP
TOWARD RECORD TERRITORY IN THE 1.2-1.4 INCH RANGE. COUPLE THAT WITH
A NOTABLE AXIS OF UPPER JET FORCING ADVANCING SQUARELY OVERHEAD
AFTER 03Z AND YOU HAVE THE MAKINGS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPLICIT THUNDER THREAT IS CERTAINLY THERE FROM A
BASIC SETUP STANDPOINT... AND WILL EVEN HAVE TO WATCH THE SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY SEVERE CHANCES AS PARTS OF THE CWA BRIEFLY
BREAK INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR LATE TONIGHT...WITH MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. FARTHER WEST...INTENSE UPWARD FGEN FORCING OVER THE TIGHT
BOUNDARY WILL NO DOUBT LIFT PARCELS RATHER HIGH UP...PROBABLY
SUFFICIENT TO TAP INTO RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROFILES ABOVE
800MB. THAT WILL ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT SHOULD ALREADY BE A
SOLID 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FOR MANY AREAS...HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. KIND OF A NO BRAINER THAT FLOODING WILL RESULT...WITH MORE
DETAILS TO BE FOUND IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

WINTER WEATHER: CAN`T FORGET ABOUT THE WINTRY WEATHER ASPECT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AS PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE MIX THROUGH
THE NIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z. SETUP CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MIX WITH
AND GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD IS STILL
ONGOING...WITH COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING WITH TIME. THROUGH 12Z...STILL
THINK MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND
MACKINAC COUNTIES...PERHAPS JUST INCHING INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOWER
TOWARD 11Z OR SO. WILL CARRY A GENERAL 1-2" FOR THOSE AREAS BASED ON
EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS...THOUGH ANY CONTINUED CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF
HERE MAY CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL. NO HEADLINES WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

TEMPERATURES: VERY TRICKY AS READINGS GET STUCK WITH ONSHORE FLOW
NEAR THE LAKES...WHILE LIKELY RISING THROUGH THE 50S/60S SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES AS THE SURFACE WAVE SLIPS NORTHWARD AND THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT DOES THE SAME. SHOULD END UP WITH A NICE RANGE BY MORNING AS
WELL...WITH LOTS OF 30S WESTERN COUNTIES...AND FAR SOUTHEAST SPOTS
LIKELY STILL TAGGING 50 BY SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM USHERS IN COLD AIR. RAIN BEGINS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL GREATLY EFFECT HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS OVER EASTERN
UPPER. RIGHT NOW THE THOUGHT IS A COUPLE INCHES...BUT IF THE TIMING
IS JUST RIGHT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO 4 INCHES. WITH OPEN WATER
TO CONTEND WITH AGAIN AND 850 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -16C...925MB WINDS
NNW AT 30 KTS...AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
SNOW IS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHWEST CWA! ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 3 INCHES. ONCE AGAIN...WINTRY WEATHER IN
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH STRONG VORTICITY
MAX TRAVERSES NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SPREADING
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN UPWARDS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS...MAKING FOR ALREADY COLD DAYS FEEL EVEN COLDER...WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL START OFF QUITE CHILLY...NEAR 10 TO LOW TEENS. AHEAD OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S OVER EASTERN
UPPER TO THE LOW 40S OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL QUICKLY
TURN TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 40 OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER. RAIN MAY
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL EARLY THURSDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...BUT CONTINUE TO
BE IN LARGE DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING...INTENSITIES...AND MOISTURE
AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME PERIOD IS NOT VERY HIGH AT ALL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S DURING THE DAY
AND RIGHT AROUND FREEZING FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

LOUSY FLYING WX THRU THE FORECAST.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE FROM FAR NE IOWA...CROSSING
CENTRAL LOWER MI AT DAYBREAK MONDAY. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS
EXPANDING NORTH BACK INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT ONCE THIS ARRIVES. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
BEFORE DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...INCOMING AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MI. EXPECT PLN/MBL/APN TO IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE DAY.

NNE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK N AND NNW OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. VERY GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

NO DOUBT FLOODING REMAINS THE BIGGEST ISSUE OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WITH A SOLID 1-3 INCHES SOUTH OF
M-72...HAVE TO BE MOST CONCERNED WITH THOSE COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT.
WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP PLAYS
OUT...BUT AS EXPECTED NOW...ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES WILL CERTAINLY
PRODUCE AREAL FLOODING CONCERNS...AND CAN FORESEE THE NEED FOR
EVENTUAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MANY OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. RIVERS
ARE ALSO RUNNING HIGH...WITH BOTH THE RIFLE AND MANISTEE RIVERS NOW
IN FLOOD STATUS...AND ONLY GOING UP FROM HERE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH THE BOARDMAN AND AU SABLE RIVERS (AND TOBACCO AND PLATTE
RIVERS - NOT FORECAST POINTS) FOR SOME PRETTY GOOD FLOODING...WITH
THE PLATTE SHOWING A HUGE SPIKE DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THE FORECAST FOR THE MANISTEE RIVER AT SHERMAN CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE RECORD FLOODING AT 17.2 FEET...AND IF THERE WAS EVER A
SETUP THAT COULD DO IT...THIS WOULD BE IT (HEAVY RAIN AND SATURATED/
FROZEN SOIL)...SO WILL OF COURSE BE KEEPING A VERY WATCHFUL EYE DOWN
THAT WAY. FARTHER NORTH...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH THOUGH MANY
SPOTS NORTH OF M-72 RECEIVED LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT...SO WE CAN HANDLE A LOT MORE UP THAT WAY BEFORE ISSUES
CROP UP. STILL...IF WIDESPREAD 2 INCH AMOUNTS OCCUR...THERE WILL NO
DOUBT BE SOME ISSUES HERE AS WELL.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MIZ016>036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JZ
HYDROLOGY...LAWRENCE