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000
FXUS63 KAPX 220351
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1151 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FIDDLING WITH CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. STRATOCU HAS BEEN
EXPANDING OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND NEARBY AREAS SINCE SUNSET.
THERE IS A SURFACE TROF SITTING FROM WESTERN SUPERIOR TO ROGERS
CITY THIS EVENING...AIDING 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA.
THIS TROF IS PROGGED TO LOSE DEFINITION OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SW FLOW TO EVENTUALLY CARRY THOSE CLOUDS OUT OF
HERE. UNTIL THEN...SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS REQUIRED IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS
NOT GOING TO BE A PLAYER HERE UNTIL TOMORROW (OTHER THAN SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE

OVERVIEW: FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOWER 48 WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW.  COLD FRONT WELL TO
THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTA/S AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.  HIGHER MID
LEVEL THETA-E AIR SLOWLY SLIDING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
GRADUAL UPTICK IN HUMIDITY LEVELS.

TONIGHT: A QUIET NIGHT FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS MAIN
FORCING/STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO COLD FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT. BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE AS ALL OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS WEST OF
THE AREA. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
COMBINED WITH EXTRA CLOUDINESS FROM THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
RESULT IN VERY MILD CONDITIONS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S. A
TOUCH OF LIGHT GROUND FOG POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF I-75...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF ALASKA MOVING ALMOST DUE
SOUTH TOWARDS PACIFIC NW. TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLOW MOVING PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL
FORCE THE RIDGE OVER MIDDLE OF THE U.S. TO PINCH/RETROGRADE WEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ENERGY DROPPING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE
/ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 110KT UPPER JET/ DROPS INTO
HUDSON BAY HELPING TO DEVELOP A QUICK MOVING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE GETS
CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST...FORCING THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THAT
SAME SHORTWAVE THEN DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...AND CARVES OUT A
DEEPER AND MORE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

NEAR TERM (TUESDAY): HOT. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES
/FIRST TIME FOR MOST AREAS THIS SUMMER/ WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CONVECTION FROM MINNESOTA MCS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST...WEST OF
OUR REGION. MEANWHILE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE NORTH OF REGION IN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET/UPPER DIVERGENCE. INSTABILITY FROM
WARMING LOW LEVELS WILL BE OFFSET BY WARMING MID LEVELS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES PEAKING AROUND 700J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO OVERCOME CIN VALUES OF
100-200J/KG DURING THE DAY AND AFTERNOON. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
FROM MCS EARLY IN THE DAY BUT LITTLE ELSE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AS FRONT GET CLOSER AND MOVES THROUGH IN THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY): AS RIDGING RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF EXPECT ANOTHER EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL ON WEDNESDAY WITH SLOW
WARM UP TO END THE WEEK. NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR THRU AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON...THEN CHANCES FOR BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA INTO MID-EVENING. LLWS OVERNIGHT MBL/PLN/TVC.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM FAR NW MN...CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR
TUE AFTERNOON. A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME FOG VERY LATE TONIGHT...
BUT FOG HAS BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...
SUGGESTING A MINIMAL THREAT AT BEST. A PRECIP THREAT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN TSRA
ARE A POTENTIAL (THOUGH NOT CERTAIN) PROBLEM LATE AFTERNOON TIL
MID EVENING.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BREEZY S TO SW WINDS DEVELOPING TUESDAY. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST OFF THE DECK TONIGHT...AND HAVE MENTIONED
LLWS MENTION AT MBL/TVC/PLN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WITH
GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORE AREAS ON NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LIGHTER WIND
REGIME IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JK/KF