Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 312331
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
731 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR
LABOR DAY...ALONG WITH A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAKE A RETURN INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

..QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT...

TIGHT SHORT WAVE ADVANCING EAST OUT OF NRN LAKE HURON THIS
AFTERNOON. STRUNG OUT SFC TROUGH STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC BACK ACROSS
NRN LAKE HURON AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT HAS BEEN RELAXING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STILL ABUNDANT STRATUS BACK ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING/MIXING INTO A STCU DECK...
ALTHOUGH THAT PROCESS IS FINALLY ACCELERATING THANKS TO LATE
AUGUST SUNSHINE...JUST IN TIME FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET. UPSTREAM...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET CORE PUNCHING INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EROSION/MIXING OF STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MUCH OF THE REMAINING STCU FADES THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS...SUSPECT THAT SOME COMPONENT OF STATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE NRN/NE PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG DECAYING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THUS HAVE STRETCHED
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE
CWA. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE INTO THE S/SW AND
SHOULD FINALLY KICK REMAINING STRATUS OUT OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
JUST IN TIME FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE
OF TOMORROWS SYSTEM.

STILL A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND DEWPOINTS
STILL AROUND 60F. BUT WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS/LIMITED MIXING AND
LIGHT WINDS...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD BET ALTHOUGH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND ERODE FOG
FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

A FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
COMING DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/SURFACE FRONTS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF GOOD
CHANCES FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE TYPICAL "NORMALS" THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
OFF NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THEN POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
WIND FIELDS ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40 TO 50 KNOTS).
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
EASTERN UPPER TO THE MIDDLE 80S NORTHEAST LOWER) PUSHES MODEL ML
CAPES TO UPWARDS OF BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. SO THERE REMAINS
DECENT POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

MONDAY OVERNIGHT...FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH LOW CLOUDS (STRATUS)
LIKE TODAY (SUNDAY). MEANWHILE...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO START WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY SLOWLY DECREASE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY RETURN
SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (RESULTING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES) FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AS HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE 80S
WITH MORE CHANCES WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING
FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR TO IFR FOG TONIGHT. TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAS FINALLY HELPED CLEAR OUT THE LOW
CIGS THAT LASTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...WITH PLN/APN LOWERING TO
IFR. TVC/MBL WILL BE MVFR AT TIMES...THOUGH MBL COULD ALSO SEE
SOME STRATUS INTRUDE FROM LAKE MI.

LOW PRESSURE IN SE MANITOBA WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
MONDAY...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY
MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY VEER SW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH QUITE A
BIT OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME MARINE FOG WILL IMPACT THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND SOUTHWEST LABOR DAY...INCREASING TO GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE AND LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LABOR DAY. WILL HOIST THOSE ADVISORIES NOW TO GIVE SOME LEAD
TIME TO POTENTIAL BOATERS. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY...BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THOSE POSSIBILITIES.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...LATER MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM





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