Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 280502
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
102 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. AS EXPECTED...EASTERN UPPER
LAKE BREEZE INDUCED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER HAVE WANED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LOOKS
LIKE A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT REMAINS ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION...
ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS ARE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AND
SHORT TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN TRIES TO DEVELOP A BIT OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OF
NORTHERN LOWER. WITH RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE OF FOG DEVELOPING AND A
LACK OF OVERALL COVERAGE...HAVE REFRAINED FROM INTRODUCING IT IN THE
GRIDS AT THIS POINT - SOMETHING TO KEEP ONE EYE ON OVERNIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED DOWNSTATE. RATHER TOASTY OUT
THERE...WITH TEMPS NEAR 90F IN MANY LOCALES. A COUPLE OF STRONG
TSRA QUICKLY DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL LUCE COUNTY ALONG THE SUPERIOR
LAKE BREEZE FRONT IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. THE SURVIVING CELL IS
NOW IN WESTERN MACKINAC CO...AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT RIDES
OVER THE LAKE MI LAKE BREEZE. WE HAVE PERHAPS SEEN A BRIEF
SPRINKLE OR TWO FORM IN ALCONA CO IN NE LOWER. VISIBLE SAT
CONFIRMS THAT THESE AREA HAVE THE MOST DEVELOPED CUMULUS.

WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN WESTERN CHIP/MACK THRU EARLY
EVENING...AS AIRMASS IS ALREADY TRYING TO RECOVER BEHIND THE
INITIAL CELLS AND CU ARE REDEVELOPING ON THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE
FURTHER NORTH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY ALSO BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF
ALCONA/IOSCO/OSCODA/OGEMAW COUNTIES IN NE LOWER...WHERE THE CU
FIELD IS MOST VIGOROUS.

CU WILL DISAPPEAR MID/LATE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS STARTING TO MIX OUT AGAIN...AND NOTING
THAT SOME SPOTS DIPPED INTO THE 50S THIS MORNING...HAVE EDGED
GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER. BUT LOWS WILL STILL MOSTLY BE
NEAR 60F TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: NO SURPRISES...WITH NOW WELL
ADVERTISED PATTERN SHIFT TO ONE OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL
UNDERWAY. IMPETUS BEHIND SUCH CHANGES CONTINUES TO BE DIGGING
NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH...WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING
RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERHEAD RIDGE
WILL REACH MATURITY TUESDAY AS WESTERN TROUGH ROTATES NORTHEAST UP
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY EVENING...WITH THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY
FLATTENING SAID RIDGING AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SLICE ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...
POTENTIALLY GIVEN US A SHOT AT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND KNOCKING
BACK TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGHOUT
AND ADDRESSING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: ONE WARM AND DRY TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE REACHES PEAK
INTENSITY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. STILL SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTING TO KICK
OFF SHOWERS/STORMS IN LAKE BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONES. JUST
NOT BUYING IT GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WELL OVERDONE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GUIDANCE PROGS. AS EVIDENT YESTERDAY AND AGAIN
TODAY...INCREASINGLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS REALLY STARTING TO DISPLAY
A POSITIVE FEEDBACK RESPONSE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH LITTLE
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED TODAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER (SO
THAT MEANS READINGS BACK UP TO NEAR OR INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST).

NOW...ABOUT ALL THOSE MUCH NEEDED RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THEIR JUST NOT LOOKING AS GOOD
AS EARLY ADVERTISED. UPSTREAM FRONT MAKES STEADY HEADWAY...REACHING
LAKE MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURE...THERE ARE INGREDIENTS
THERE FOR SOME DECENT RAINS...MOST NOTABLY NICE CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND RATHER INTENSE PRE-FRONTAL (ALBEIT NARROW) MOISTURE
CHANNELING (PWATS UP NEAR 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING). HOWEVER...
THERE IS PLENTY OF NEGATIVES...TOP THREE OF WHICH ARE UNFAVORABLE
UPPER JET LOCATION...SHEARING MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND UNFAVORABLE
FRONTAL TIMING. BASED OFF RECENT HISTORY AND SIMPLE PATTERN
RECOGNITION...JUST GOTTA BELIEVE THESE NEGATIVES WILL ESSENTIALLY
WIN OUT...ALLOWING A DECAYING (BOTH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY) LINE
OF SHOWERS/FEW EMBEDDED STORMS TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE AREA VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN
LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH FORCED
ASCENT VIA LOW LEVEL JET RIDING ATOP LAKE MICHIGAN INDUCED STABLE
LAYER. COLD FRONT CLEARS EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
DEPENDING ON MORNING CLOUD TRENDS...MAY ALLOW JUST ENOUGH TIME FOR
PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL...WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION BEING ABLE TO POTENTIALLY TAP
INTO 35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LATEST DAY 3 SPC CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL WORDING JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SOMETHING TO
MONITOR FOR SURE.

RATHER REFRESHING AIRMASS FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
A RETURN OF OUR ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR TROUGHING AND NORTHWEST FLOW.
UNLIKE MOST FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATUS...
GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF RAPID CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY. HIGHS BY
THURSDAY WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BRING THE OCCASIONAL
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
PRODUCING ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG AND RESULTING TEMPO IFR VSBYS
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME LOCATIONS...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVERHEAD
THRU TODAY AND WILL THEN SLIDE EAST OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STILL APPEARS THAT ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AFTER 06Z. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES THRU TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT CHOPPY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTH END OF LAKE MI...BUT FOR NOW DO
NOT ANTICIPATE NEEDING ANY ADVISORIES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GILLEN
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ


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