Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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298
FXUS63 KAPX 181726
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
126 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER EASTERN WI THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE
PUSHING 70F ALONG THE WI LAKE MI COAST...BUT ARE IN THE LOW 40S IN
THE NW CORNER OF THE STATE. THERE IS NO PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT...IN FACT THERE IS NO CLOUD COVER ALONG THE FRONT...THOUGH
POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER IS SUBSTANTIAL. CLOSER TO HOME...PATCHY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHERN MI...A BIT THICKER ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

A COUPLE OF POINTS OF CONCERN TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALONG IT LOOKS TO
BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SE...AS A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING AND
WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROVE A SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLE. WE MIGHT BE
ABLE TO MUSTER 500J/KG OF SBCAPE IN FAR SE SECTIONS. THE MOST
RECENT HRRR AND RUC RUNS DO TRY TO POP SOMETHING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHRA EARLY/MID AFTERNOON FROM OSC TO
STANDISH.

THE OTHER ISSUE IS ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WX CONCERNS. JUST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT IS A CLASSIC SUMMER FIRE WX PATTERN FOR US...AS WITH STRONG
HEATING WE TEND TO DRY OUT FASTER THAN WE COOL OFF. HOWEVER...
IDEALLY COLD FROPA WOULD HAPPEN A FEW HOURS EARLIER...IN THE
MORNING AS OPPOSED TO THE PM. HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS A BIT DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE ALSO DONE THE SAME TO LATE-DAY TEMPS AS
THE COOLER AIR MAKES INITIAL INROADS. SO DON/T HAVE RH LEVELS
GOING BELOW 35 PERCENT OR SO.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

ALL REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE EXITED NE OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH NO ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY PRESENT
UPSTREAM AS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REMAINS FIRMLY WITHIN THE DRY SLOT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA.
SKIES HAVE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARED IN RESPONSE TO THIS DRIER AIR
WORKING ITS WAY INTO MICHIGAN. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE DRY
SLOT THRU MUCH OF TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MAKES SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS THRU UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO QUEBEC BY 00Z
TUESDAY. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY ALONG WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FOR MOST OF OUR CWA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN WHERE CAA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL INITIALLY BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR NRN
LWR MICHIGAN (COOLER NEAR THE LAKES)...GIVING US ONE LAST DAY OF
SUMMER WARMTH BEFORE THE REALITY OF NRN MICHIGAN IN MID MAY KICKS
BACK IN ON TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL WRAP BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THE CAA BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE
RAPID AND IMPRESSIVE THRU THE NIGHT...AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP FROM +13C
THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND -2C BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THINK
THE ONLY LOCATION THAT WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE NW
CHIPPEWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE CAA AND LOW LEVEL
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKE PLACE SOONEST. THE REST OF OUR
CWA SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...BUT WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY SOME OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO CAA...WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING
MAINLY INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: TUESDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL
FOR N LOWER.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: HOW FAR WILL THE TEMPERATURES FALL TUESDAY
NIGHT.

(05/19)TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST,
THE COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PRETTY MUCH GO NO WHERE AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALL FROM AROUND 0C TO ABOUT -4 OR -6C DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE
ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO BACK OFF ON THE -8C AIR THAT IT WAS
ADVERTISING THE LAST 2 RUNS, WITH IT AROUND -6C AT ANJ. WHILE THE
GFS WILL BE AROUND -4C. WILL HAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
BY IN E UPPER. THE MOISTURE DOESN`T LOOK DEEP ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION IN N LOWER SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THERE, JUST MOSTLY
CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT, THE RH AT 850 MB AND IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL
DROP TO LESS THAN 20% ON BOTH MODELS BY 12Z. AND WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MAINTAINING AROUND 0C OR BELOW, AND, AT LEAST ON THE
ECMWF, THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY DECOUPLE, FROST IS PROBABLE, AND
MAYBE A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE PATCHY AND AREAS OF
FROST, BUT THIS IS LOOKING MORE WIDE SPREAD IF THE WINDS DROP OFF
LIKE THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST.

(05/20)WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES, BELOW NORMAL (LOOKS LIKE
NOW AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW) IF THE MODELS PAN OUT. OVERNIGHT,
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ONLY THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WOULD
INCREASE, IF ANY AT ALL. SO WILL EXPECT THAT THE NIGHT WOULD REMAIN
DRY. MAY IDEAS IS THAT THE SKY REMAINS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY, SO
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S, SO ANOTHER FROST
NIGHT? PUT PATCHY IN FOR THE INLAND AREAS, AND LEFT THE LAKE SHORES
FROST FREE WHERE THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH THAT
PARKS ITSELF OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STARTING TUESDAY AND HANGS THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY, THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ALLOWING THE 500
MB RIDGE TO BUILD IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN
FOR THE LONG TERM? SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAMP OUT IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK, KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND THE 500 MB PATTERN WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WHEN THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN GAYLORD AND SAULT STE. MARIE ARE IN THE UPPER 60S. SUNDAY, THE
MODELS BEGIN TO KEY IN ON THE NEXT 500 MB LOW THAT MOVES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES UP THROUGH THE
STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT PLN/TVC/MBL.

LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO QUEBEC THRU THIS EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MI THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMAL RISK OF
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN
THE MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED AT PLN/TVC/MBL LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO TUE
MORNING. APN WILL STAY VFR.

SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY (20-25KT) THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS VEER W AND
NW TONIGHT...BECOMING LESS GUSTY FOR A PERIOD...BEFORE
BLUSTERINESS RETURNS TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AS CAA DEVELOPS ON THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER CRITERIA...SO WILL
NOT ISSUE A SCA AT THIS TIME. STRONGER NW WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ON TUESDAY AS CAA STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR NEARSHORE AREAS THRU
THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MLR



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