Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 230345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD NIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. PATCHY FOG LATER
TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME
QUITE THE AMPLIFIED ONE...WITH DUAL STRONG SHORTWAVES HELPING CARVE
OUT DEEP WESTERN NOAM TROUGHING...ALL THE WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES UP INTO ONTARIO. ACTIVE MCS TRACK
DISPLACED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG GREATEST INSTABILITY
CORRIDOR...WHICH LOOKS IN NO HURRY TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH...A RESULT
OF VERY LITTLE EAST PROPAGATION TO LONGWAVE FEATURES. EARLIER
OVERHEAD MULTI-LAYER CLOUD DECK NOW SHOWING SOME HOLES...LEADING TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BECAUSE OF SUCH...WITH SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST LOWER
PUSHING 80 DEGREES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: VERY LOW END SHOWER CHANCES
FOR SOME INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURE/CLOUD/FOG TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.

DETAILS: BASICALLY...SIMPLE PERSISTENCE WILL BE USED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS LARGER SCALE FEATURES CHANGE VERY LITTLE. NEXT
ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOOKS TO PASS ONCE AGAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...WITH A COMBINATION OF LITTLE FORCING AND
MINIMAL INSTABILITY LEADING TO ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. STILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO NEAR AND SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AND INSOLATION
TO PERHAPS DRIVE SUCH. AS ISOLATED IMPLIES...THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/SOME STRATUS TO
DEVELOP. THESE SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD...BUT TARGETING THE
TRADITIONAL FOG PRONE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING THE DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING AND VERY WARM AIR NOSING UP THROUGH
THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTING UP THE
CLASSIC "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN. LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION MISSED NRN
MICHIGAN COMPLETELY...FAVORING DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE SFC WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHER UPSTREAM...STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW
THAT WILL CARVE OUT SUBSTANTIAL TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
BY TOMORROW LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM SHARP RIDGING POKING UP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO BE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES.

WEEKEND FORECAST...VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST. SFC LOW/ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT AND SHARPENING LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS GETS SHOVED WELL
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO CANADA BY SUNDAY...ARCING BACK
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AND NEVER GETTING THIS FAR NORTH
INTO THE STATE. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FLOW/FORCING FOR RENEWED
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST AND INTO ONTARIO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
LARGELY KEEP NRN MICHIGAN HIGH AND DRY. BUT WITH A WARM/HUMID
AIRMASS...CERTAINLY COULD SEE A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND DECAYING UPSTREAM
CONVECTION COULD POTENTIALLY SPILL INTO NRN MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO.
BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND THE PATTERN...HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT AS MOST AREAS WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY. WILL HANDLE ANY ROGUE CONVECTION ON A SHORT TERM
BASIS. TEMPS...WARM...BUT LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
SPANS THE GREAT LAKES. FULL OUT SUNSHINE NOT ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY
WITH FOG/STRATUS TENDENCIES AT NIGHT. THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A
BIT THROTTLED. BUT...SOLID UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S SHOULD BE
ATTAINABLE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
ROCKIES EVENTUALLY DISLODGES AND ADVANCES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL KICK SHARP SHORT WAVE RIDGE/THERMAL AXIS JUST
A BIT EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...WHILE WEAK-ISH COLD FRONT
SLIPS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AS
STRONGER S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE ALTHOUGH OF COURSE
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE. BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP CONVECTION
CHANCES INTACT FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONGER FLOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO FOLD THETA-E AXIS INTO THE STATE AND WE BEGIN TO GET SOME
BETTER QG-UPWARD FORCING INTO THE REGION. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
SHAPING UP TO BE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SLIPS ON BY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TO ROUND
OUT THE WORK WEEK. HAVE A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING AS LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/APN). VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY MID MORNING AS THE STRATUS AND FOG MIX OUT INTO A CU
DECK. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MARINE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...NORTH OF A FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS REMAINS HUMID...AND FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IN THE NIGHTS/MORNINGS. WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING ON ITS
APPROACH...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MSB





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