Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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426
FXUS63 KAPX 300505
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
105 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY CHILLY OUT THERE AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
NO BIG CHANGES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY SEE CURRENT MID CLOUD DECK
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SNEAK INTO EASTERN UPPER BY MORNING. INHERITED
GRIDS IN GREAT SHAPE...WITH ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR REAL-TIME TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

PRETTY QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED EAST OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PULLING LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS
OUT OVER LAKE HURON. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND THIS EVENING. THE NEXT
UPPER LOW/WAVE DROPS THRU ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN IT AND
CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST...EXPECT MAINLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...COOLEST IN NE LOWER
AND INLAND LOW LYING AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

                ...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION:

A RATHER DISORGANIZED/LOOSE/BAGGY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THIS TIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGHING MESHES WITH
DECAYING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE SW CONUS...WHILE RIDGING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA REPOSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE ROCKIES. NRN MICHIGAN
REMAINS IN GENERAL TROUGHING WITH TWO PARTICULAR SHORTWAVES TO DEAL
WITH...AND IN A GENERAL EASTERLY LIGHT WIND FLOW WITH MINIMAL
THERMAL ADVECTIONS WHICH CONTINUES OUR COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST WAVE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AS IT DROPS IN
FROM ONTARIO SATURDAY...THE OTHER (WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHOWERS STORMS ACROSS TX/AR/OK) WORKS EASTWARD AND ACROSS SRN LOWER
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AS IT MESHES WITH THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGHING.

THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE INITIAL ONTARIO WAVE IS RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED...SEEING AS
THERE IS NO DETECTABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS ONTARIO NOW. THIS WAVE
WILL NOT GET ANY MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO IT AS IT DROPS INTO MAINLY
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THERE IS A LAYER OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THERE HOWEVER...AND BELIEVE THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DEVELOP...WHETHER AS A SOMEWHAT TRAPPED MOISTURE/INVERSION DEAL...OR
AS THIS MOISTURE MANIFESTING ITSELF IN A DIURNALLY DRIVEN DECK OF
CLOUDS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SEEING SOME SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT OTHER DATA DOES NOT POINT THAT WAY. SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT
THIS JUNCTURE. IN NRN LOWER...A FAIRLY DECENT DAY OF MOSTLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WHILE EASTERN UPPER SEES A DECREASE IN CLOUDS INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...NRN LOWER WILL SEE SKIES INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH...AS THE SHORTWAVE AND INITIAL EJECTED ENERGY FROM
THE SW CONUS EVENTUALLY LIFTS OUR WAY. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT SOLD
ON THIS IDEA...SOME WEAK FGEN OR DEFORMATION LIGHT RAINS COULD SNEAK
INTO AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 ON THE FAR NRN PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS ESE AND THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES THE MOST BAGGY/LOOSE WITH SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRYING TAKING PLACE WITH NRN MICHIGAN IN A
"FORCING-FREE" ZONE. THE WHOLE REGION IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER SUNNY
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS. SCATTERED AT BEST
CONSIDERING THE SFC DEW POINTS LIKELY TO NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH IN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME.

HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S DURING THIS
TIME...A SHADE WARMER INTO THE LOWER 60S IN DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NW LOWER. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOW 40S.

SMD

              ...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

EXTENDED FORECAST: RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST OPENING
THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER POLAR AIR MASS TO SPILL SOUTHWARD IN THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.  WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME RAIN IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR PROGRESSES INTO THE
AREA.  SOME BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST...SO NOT A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO AFFIX SPECIFICS
TO A PARTICULAR DAY.  BUT A COOLING TREND EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK AND
PROBABLY DRY AS WELL.  WILL WAIT AND SEE ABOUT THE GFS IDEA OF
ROLLING A BOWLING BALL DOWN INTO THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF INCREASING MOISTURE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME E/NE AT AROUND 10 KTS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THIS TIME. THE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP THIS WEEKEND...AND LOW END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE MET. WILL START
WITH THE NW LOWER COASTLINE FROM GTB LIGHT SOUTHWARD...WHERE
FUNNELING THROUGH THE MANITOU ISLANDS WILL HELP ACCELERATE THE
WIND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...FARINA
LONG TERM...DICKSON/JPB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...DICKSON



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