Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 170535
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
135 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS...WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE SOME SNOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
TODAY...WITH A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THURSDAY. SOME SUN AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS A CANADIAN SYSTEM PUSHES
OVER ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

OVERVIEW: WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES
WITHIN BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW CHANCES AND ACCUMULATIONS.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
EVENING...DAMPENING OUT AS IT LIFTS THRU THE NRN LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  MODEST JET FORCING AND TIGHT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING WITH DRY SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  TOP DOWN SATURATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SWATH OF
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING NORTHWEST LOWER INTO EASTERN UPPER.  SNOWFALL
WILL BE DRIVEN BY JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS...PWATS OF
0.4"...PERSISTENT ADIABATIC OMEGA AND H8-H7 F-GEN.  FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL EXTEND LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND SHORT LIVED NATURE
OF BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS.  SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MAY PICK UP
A QUICK LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWFALL
INTO THIS EVENING LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE 1-3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE.

ONCE THE PRIMARY WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW PUSHES TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...NOT MUCH HAPPENING THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WEST/NORTH OF
THE AREA.  SOME LIGHTER SNOWS POSSIBLY CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER.  LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

...SOME PRECIPITATION NORTH THURSDAY/DRY AND COOL FRIDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LINGERING HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES (WITH HYDROGRAPHS ON AREA RIVERS ON THE RECESSION LIMB).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN FEATURES BROAD LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THOUGH OVERALL IS
PRETTY PROGRESSIVE WITH AN ACTIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN.  SEPARATE
SHORT WAVES ROTATING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...WITH A SPLITTING
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NATION`S MIDSECTION THIS WEEKEND.
NOT A PARTICULARLY WARM PATTERN TO START WITH PASSING WAVES
REINFORCING THE COOLER REGIME OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION NEXT
WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A WEAKENED STATE THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING HEIGHT FALLS FRIDAY AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING INTO MICHIGAN SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRECIPITATION WITH PASSING
SURFACE LOW THURSDAY...THREAT FOR RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.  GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...DECENT QG
SUPPORT IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS THOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION
IS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED WITH THE BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND CLIPPING NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG
TRACK OF MAIN MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL FALL MOSTLY AS SNOW OVER FAR WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND MAINLY RAIN (OR A MIX OVER THE REST
OF EASTERN UPPER) ELSEWHERE.  EXPECTED TO BE A WARMER DAY ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOLAR INSOLATION EXPECTED TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.  ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING
WITH TIME...DECENT LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND MIXING OUT AHEAD OF IT
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY...LIKELY
GUSTING 20 TO 30+MPH AND  STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST
LOWER.

COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY/
RIGHT REAR JET DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO THAT STRETCHES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  OTHERWISE FRIDAY
AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A QUIET PERIOD...SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FRIDAY BETWEEN FRONTAL PRECIP BAND TO THE SOUTH
AND NEXT PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY):  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING...THOUGH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THIS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR MONDAY.   COOL SATURDAY BEFORE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY):  NOTHING MAJOR AT THIS POINT WHILE LOW
PRESSURE SPINS UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.  SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU 06Z FRIDAY AS WIDESPREAD SNOW STAYS NORTH OF THE LOWER PENINSULA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THRU THE UPPER PENINSULA.
LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BY LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

WATER LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING...WITH
SOME LOW LAND FLOODING CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR.
BECAUSE OF LINGERING FLOOD ISSUES...WILL EXTEND THE COUNTY BASED
FLOOD WARNING FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
HYDROLOGY...JK






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