Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 202114
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
414 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SITTING SQUARELY OVERHEAD WILL INCH OFF TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...DESPITE
LIMITED LIFTING OF THAT CLOUD LAYER THAT HAS OCCURRED SO FAR TODAY.
AS THE WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID CLOUD MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH (PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY). IT IS AN EXTREMELY
TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN AS ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RAPID FALL (DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS). FORECAST LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW (THOUGH
ADJUSTMENTS BY THE EVENING SHIFT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REQUIRED).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING WET...

OVERVIEW: ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY IS PLOWING INTO
THE WEST COAST TODAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN/SNOW TO THE PAC NW...A
PIECE OF WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ACTIVE
WEATHER DURING THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK. DOWNSTREAM...A BIT OF A
SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION ACROSS NOAM WITH THE STRONGEST BRANCE OF
THE WESTERLIES RUNNING THROUGH THE SRN STATES. A BIT MORE
DISORGANIZED AND "RIPPLED" ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH A COUPLE SMALL
SCALE SHORT WAVES...ONE IN THE NRN PLAINS AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. NO SUBSTANTIAL
WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE...JUST AN AXIS OF MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION AND A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW UP IN THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA.

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THICKER MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART. BUT STRATUS ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE THE REGION AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND PULLS UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO NRN MICHIGAN IN EARNEST. MAY BE SOME
SUNSHINE IN PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY...BUT I
THINK THAT WILL BE FLEETING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL START TO SEE THE FIRST GLIMPSE OF
OUR MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM MY MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND STARTS TO DIG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
A BETTER IDEA OF JUST HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD FOR MIDWEST. BUT IN THE
INTERIM...INITIAL WARM ADVECTION FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
/RESULTING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SLIPS
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NRN REACHES OF THIS CWA. INHERITED
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK IN THIS REGARD WITH ONLY MINOR
COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY OVER
JUST HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
VARIOUS MODEL OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF RELEVANT FEATURES. BUT AT
THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP A RAIN MAKER
FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION UPPER JET FORCING THAT
NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY...WE SHOULD GET A
NICE SLUG OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER) HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES
OF DRY SLOTTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE SNOW MAKER FRIDAY.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS HAVE MOVED THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EVEN FARTHER WEST...NOW RUNNING NORTHWARD THROUGH MICHIGAN WITH ONLY
A 983MB CENTER WHILE OVERHEAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ECMWF HAS PRESSURE
DROPPING TO 970MB OVER JAMES BAY WHILE THE GFS IS JUST EAST OF JAMES
BAY ONLY DROPPING TO 978MB. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN TO BEGIN WITH
AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THE SNOW WILL BEGIN AS A VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WON/T EVEN DROP
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL
HOURS OF SNOW FALLING...IT WILL BE HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET
IT TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND. AGAIN...ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY OF THIS HEAVY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE
ON TREES TO HAVE THE WIND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK DISMAL FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TO
DEVELOP.

MODELS DISAGREE TREMENDOUSLY FOR THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO EFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF TRACKING IT THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA AND THE GFS THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER! OBVIOUSLY THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE TWO TRACKS ARE
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN BOTH MODELS
AGREE THAT THEY WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE MOISTURE NEEDED DEPARTS
EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL...IT/S JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE
FAVORABLE SETUPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY REACH
NEAR FREEZING TO THE MID 30S THURSDAY AND AROUND 30 FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...WHILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWN TO FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S BY THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

VERY DIFFICULT CIG FORECAST CONTINUES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
EAST WITH A GRADUAL TREND FOR A MORE SSW LIGHT WIND WITH CONTINUED
STRATUS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
APN...THOUGH CIGS AT MBL MAY CONTINUE TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR. TREND
WILL BE FOR STRATUS TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND GET INTO APN AT
SOME POINT LATER SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN



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