Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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391
FXUS63 KAPX 252011
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
311 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

...Strong winds gradually diminish this evening...

High Impact Weather Potential...Strong winds continue thru early
evening.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Occluded low center has pushed just
north of Lake Superior this afternoon...with the associated front
now NE of Lake Huron. All precip has come to an end across our
CWA...with some decrease in cloud cover gradually occurring over the
past couple of hours as high pressure and drier low level air begin
to build into the region. Tight pressure gradient in the wake of the
departing low continues to produce strong gusty W/SW winds across
the Western Great Lakes region...with some of the strongest winds
occurring across our CWA throughout the day. Ongoing CAA has held
temps mainly in the 30s all day.

Strong W/SW winds gusting to 40 to 50 mph will persist thru the
remainder of the afternoon...and will then gradually diminish
throughout the night as the low level pressure gradient loosens in
response to the upstream ridge axis building into Michigan. Local
surface obs are still reporting wind speeds reaching Wind Advisory
criteria across much of our CWA attm. Will certainly keep all Wind
Advisory headlines in tact...with the continued expectation that
wind speeds should fall below criteria by around 00Z this evening.

Otherwise...expect dry wx thru Monday with some partial cloud cover
tonight giving way to mostly sunny skies for the start of the work
week. Low temps tonight will cool into the mid 20s to around 30
degrees. High temps on Monday will range from the mid 30s in Eastern
Upper Michigan to the mid 40s near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

...Remaining Mild...

Primary Forecast Concern...Pops Tuesday night.

High pressure pushes off to our southeast Tuesday which really pumps
in the mild air with lots of 50 degree+ readings across northern
lower expected. A short wave moves through the flow Tuesday night.
Although pops will be low at between 20 and 35 percent,
precipitation type is in question. A definite start as liquid with
the mild air lingering from during the day. Model soundings
overnight cool to near freezing from the surface up to about 3,000
feet or so. Therefore could end up with snow showers or even a
little freezing rain. Still too many questions about this possible
marginal "event" to get too excited about just yet. Wednesday looks
like northern Michigan is in transition between low pressure
developing across the Missouri River Valley and cooler air to the
north...leading to partly cloudy and still pretty mild.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Primary concern remains the storm system we have been looking at for
the Thursday/Friday timeframe. The anticipated southern shift has
continued over the past couple of runs, as both the upper level and
surface lows continue to weaken a bit. Some guidance has shifted far
enough south to take the precip out of Northern Michigan. I don`t
think it will end up completely missing us, but I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some more subtle adjustments over the next couple
of runs, and perhaps areas in eastern upper and across the tip of the
mitt not seeing much precip. Still expect any daytime precip to fall
as rain, with a transition to snow as overnight temperatures drop.
We could see another round of gusty winds as this system passes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

High pressure will gradually build into the Western Great Lakes
region this afternoon...tonight and Monday in the wake of the
departing low and cold front. Remaining MVFR cigs will lift to VFR
this afternoon...with lingering low clouds scattered out tonight
and Monday with strengthening subsidence. Strong W/SW winds will
continue thru early evening...with sustained winds of 15 to 25 kts
with gusts as high as 35 to 45 kts at times. Winds will gradually
weaken during the remainder of the night into Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ008-015>036-041-
042.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MR



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