Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 290204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1004 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Issued at 958 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

High pressure centered directly overhead, and looks to remain that
way through the rest of the overnight. A few passing shreds of
cirrus about it for cloud cover tonight. Fog parameters continue
to look decent, with light winds/clear skies/lingering low level
moisture/cool temperatures all working together overnight.
Already sings of this occurring, with sub one quarter mile
visibility at Beaver Island. Expect fog to continue to expand,
with areas of dense fog looking possible through the early morning


.SHORT TERM...(This evening into Monday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

High impact weather potential: locally dense fog possible

High pressure has settled over the western/southern Great Lakes.
Widespread early-morning cloud cover has mixed out into a cu deck,
which is itself diminishing. If anything, the above happened
somewhat faster than progged.  That sets us up for a relatively
quiet but potentially foggy night ahead, as the high settles
directly over northern MI.

Tonight...ongoing cu will dissipate as we move thru the late
afternoon and evening hours. One patch of cirrostratus is seen over
eastern Superior and western upper MI, and will have some impact in
eastern upper this evening. Some potential for increasing cirrus
late tonight, downstream of expected deep convection in northern MN.
Otherwise, with the high overhead, winds will be light and favorable
for radiational cooling. Our airmass remains moist, with surface dew
points near 60f to the mid 60s. We should see fog develop overnight,
particularly in the more fog-prone locales in eastern upper and the
interior of northern lower. Will add a mention of locally dense fog
to the HWO.

Min temps in the 50s to around 60f.

Monday...high pressure will drift across Lake Huron, while an
upstream cold front makes slow progress across northern MN. An
overnight MCS is expected to make some progress into northern WI and
western upper MI in the morning. This is along the far southern
periphery of the better westerlies found across southern Canada.
However, the richer 850mb theta-e airmass and associated instability
starts the day - and largely remains - west of Lake MI. Low-level
winds are quite weak in close proximity of the high, inhibiting the
advection of a richer and more unstable airmass into the area. Late
in the afternoon, a 10-15kt wsw sub-850mb wind does develop into
eastern upper, with the Nam portraying a few hundred j/kg of mlcape
leaking into western Chip/Mack. Seems ambitious to actually have
this translate into precip chances this far east, and per collab
with MQT, will keep eastern upper dry thru 00z.

Generally will be on the sunny side, though will see an increase in
cloud cover in eastern upper as the day proceeds. Max temps mainly
upper 70s to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Monday night through Wednesday...

Another trough and associated cold front will move across the region
Monday night into Tuesday. Precipitation and thunder chances are the
main forecast challenges. There is decent moisture pooling out ahead
of the incoming cold front with precipitable waters of 1.50 to 1.75
inches. Wind fields are fairly weak overall, but 0-6 km bulk shear
is between 30 and 35 knots across the northern half of the forecast
area. Jet dynamics are not overly impressive with 250 mb winds of
around 70 knots. So overall will keep with the current forecast and
have likely pops for showers and possible thunderstorms Monday night
across eastern upper and chances for showers and thunderstorms
across all of the forecast area Tuesday. Thunder chances Tuesday
will be predicated on the amount of sunshine/daytime heating
generated instability (which may be somewhat limited) due to
upstream convection. Severe chances overall look low but it`s still
a little early to ascertain details. Breezy and cooler conditions
move in on Wednesday as surface high pressure begins to nose down
from the northwest. Highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s north
to the middle 80s southeast and the upper 70s to middle 70s
Wednesday. Lows in the muggy lower and middle 60s Monday night and
the middle 50s to around 60 Tuesday night.

Extended (Wednesday night through Sunday)...

At the start of the period, high amplitude ridging builds across the
center of the country with high pressure nosing from Canada into the
northern Great Lakes. As a result, mainly dry conditions are
expected to prevail through much of the extended period; however, as
mentioned by the prior shift, many questions continue as we head
into the holiday weekend around the potential for a Gulf of Mexico
tropical system and it`s possible impacts on northern Michigan`s
sensible weather, although long range guidance continue to depict a
cold front crossing the area late next weekend into the following


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 805 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Fog expected tonight.

High pressure will continue to build over the central and
southern Great Lakes region. A humid airmass remains in place, and
with clearing skies and light winds tonight, fog is expected
overnight. Anticipate MVFR conditions at TVC, and IFR at
PLN/APN/MBL. Fog will burn off quickly Monday morning.

Light winds expected through this taf period.


Issued at 331 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

High pressure will be overhead tonight, and only slowly drift east
on Monday. Little in the way of winds/waves expected. Something of
an increase in sw to w winds expected into Tuesday, just ahead of
a cold front.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Sullivan/Gillen
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