Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 181026
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
626 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE DAY. DRIER...COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN...LEADING TO A RATHER
CLEAR...CHILLY NIGHT. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SATURDAY...AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN STARTING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. LOW CLOUDS ARE
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING WHILE BAND OF THICK
HIGH CLOUDS OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN PEELS OFF TO THE EAST. BUT
OVERALL ANTICIPATE A RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE DAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME REDUCED VSBYS HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER THE LAST
ONE TO TWO HOURS AND HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY FOG TO COVER A GOOD PART
OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID MORNING.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LARGELY MIX OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN MAY BE STUCK IN THE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON PER SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WAVY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING WITH ONE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES...SECOND WAVE ADVANCING
THROUGH TEXAS INTO THE GULF AND ANOTHER WAVE COMING ONSHORE IN THE
PAC NW. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BROAD/WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO THE WESTERN U.P. AND WISCONSIN
NOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. BUT NRN MICHIGAN FINDING ITSELF UNDER
100+ KNOT JET STREAK STRETCHED SW-NE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT
LARGELY ON THE DESCENDING SIDE OF THE JET WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT PUNCHING UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. BUT THERE IS ANOTHER
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
MOVING UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN PULLING THICKER CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIP UP ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ONE MORE VORTICITY
CENTER WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ITSELF ROTATING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.

TODAY...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH NRN MICHIGAN STUCK
LARGELY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT...ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL
BE FOUND NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION WILL
REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD COVER ISSUES AS COOLER AIR SPREADS BACK INTO
THE STATE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD COVER
NOTED ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO LAKE MICHIGAN
SOME OF WHICH HAS MADE INROADS INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. SO
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUD COVER
SPREADING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. AND COUPLED WITH BAND OF
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WILL START THE DAY ON THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SIDE OF THINGS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG
MID APRIL SUN/HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BE ABLE TO THIN OUT THE
LOWER CLOUDS TO A LARGE DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CIRRUS/
CIRROSTRATUS PEELS OFF TO THE EAST...LEADING TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OUT LARGELY IN THE 40S
WITH SOME LOWER 50S IN THE SE STATES DUE TO NW DOWNSLOPING
FLOW.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE LEADING TO
QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH THICKER
HIGH CLOUDS PRESSING INTO NRN MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WONDERING IF WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AS SFC TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE 20S (TEENS EASTERN UPPER)
AND A STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER RECENT OUR RECENT
PRECIP. BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

(4/19)SATURDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST, THE RETURN FLOW
BEGINS AND WARMS THINGS UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, AS
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES,
THE LIFT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO INCREASE AS THE SFC LOW
APPROACHES. SO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN E
UPPER.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE HELPS TO REINFORCE THE LIFT
ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO THE EVENING, WHICH MOVES INTO NW LOWER BY
06Z. SO LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY INTO NE LOWER AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST, BUT THE 500 MB
SPEEDMAX PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALLOWS
FOR THE DYNAMIC LIFT TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN OVER THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND AT 850 MB.

(4/20)SUNDAY...THE MOISTURE AND THE FORCING CONTINUE INTO THE DAY,
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH ANOTHER 500 MB VORT MAX ENTERING
THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE, THE SUBTROPICAL JET IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW THAT IS ALSO TAPPED INTO THIS SAME
RIBBON OF MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT, AS THE TWO FEATURES MOVE EAST, THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS AS THE SFC TROUGH BETWEEN
THE SFC LOWS DEVELOPS AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
THE RAIN CONTINUES. AT THIS POINT, THE QPF ON BOTH MODELS DOESN`T
LOOK PARTICULARLY HEAVY, BUT IT DOES SEEM TO CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS IF THE
FEATURES SHOW BETTER ORGANIZATION TO RAIN HARDER OVER THE REGION.

EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...(4/21)MONDAY...ANOTHER 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY, AND BEGINS TO COOL US ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL BE
THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS BEFORE THE COOL OFF. OF COURSE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE, THERE`S A CHANCE OF RAIN. (4/22)TUESDAY...WHILE THE SKY
CLEARS, THE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL.
(4/23)WEDNESDAY...THE SFC HIGH AND THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILD INTO THE
REGION, WARMING US UP AGAIN, BACK TO NORMAL. DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS FOR THE RAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. BASED ON THE 850 MB MOISTURE ON THE GFS, THINK IT IS OVERDOING
IT, AND WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF. (4/24)THURSDAY...THE WARM FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE FOREST AREA. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

LOWER CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS IN THE PROCESS OF EXPANDING INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW COOLER AIRMASS BLEEDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND ILL-DEFINED FRONT. IMPACT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED
OVER NW LOWER MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. WATCH OUT FOR SNEAKY BRIEF IFR
CIGS AT PLN. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT FOG (MIST) OUT THERE AS WELL
REDUCING VSBYS THROUGH MID MORNING.

BUT LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE/HEATING AND MIXING TAKES HOLD
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS MORNING
FROM THE NW TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE TEENS
POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT SOME FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT
PLN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...ADAM







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