Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 221604
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1104 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. MILDER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
DROP BACK ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESTARTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MACHINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

BROAD WARM ADVECTION FORCING IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG
WITH A NARROW AXIS OF DEFORMATION FORCING THAT SPANS FROM NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN UP THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BATCH OF NEARLY NON-MOVING
RADAR RETURNS APPEARS TO BE A MANIFESTATION OF THAT SYNOPTIC
FORCING INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL LAKE INSTABILITY.

TOOK AWHILE...BUT STRONG SW WARM AIR TRANSPORT OVER TOP SNOWPACK
AND SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS FINALLY MANAGED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
STRONGER PULSE OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE DID
BRING ONE ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. BUT MUCH OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED ON TO THE EAST WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS DOWN THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

SOME LIGHT ICING DID OCCUR FROM HTL TO OSC AND POINTS SOUTH (HTL
ASOS REPORTED 0.02 ICING). BUT JUST ABOUT ALL SFC OBS ARE
REPORTING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS POINT. SO...WILL CANCEL
ADVISORY ENTIRELY SHORTLY.

GOING FORWARD...WILL REMAIN UNDER BROAD WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUING TO CLIMB FOR THE
DURATION. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE IS HERE TO STAY ESPECIALLY
AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINT AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NRN MICHIGAN AND FACILITATES MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
SNOWBELTS. BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN "NO MANS
LAND" WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND NO REAL ORGANIZED PRECIP UNTIL
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...DREARY WEATHER DEVELOPING WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

LOW PRESSURE WAS CROSSING FAR NRN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING....WHICH WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PROVINCES. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...STRONG WAA IS UNDERWAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT (TIED TO THE LOW PRESSURE). WINDS
WERE HOWLING OUT OF THE SOUTH JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. THESE WINDS
WERE USHERING IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING/ADVECTING IN (SEEN WIDESPREAD TO OUR SW
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY). THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY WARM
FRONT ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR IN THESE AREAS SHOWING POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ON THIS FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT (6.5C/KM). THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS
RESULTING IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT MOST
OF THE ECHOES WERE OCCURRING WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS VERY DRY SUB 700MB AIR (SEEN ON 00Z
APX SOUNDING) NOT ALLOWING PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WHEN
TEMPS WERE STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS DRY AIR WAS ALSO KEEPING THOSE
LOW CLOUDS FROM EXPANDING EVEN FASTER. REST ASSURED...THEY ARE
COMING...AND SO IS THE WARMER AIR.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
TODAY...DAMPENING OUT TO SOME DEGREE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER A COLD SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND STRATUS OVER ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THAT`S THE
EAST PART.

THE ARRIVAL OF THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BETTER RADAR
RETURNS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY SKIRT THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.
MOST OF OUR PRECIPITATION...PER FCST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST A
DRIZZLE IS TO BE SEEN. DRIZZLE IS ALWAYS A PRETTY TOUGH TO
FORECAST...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT ARRIVES
THIS MORNING IS QUITE RESPECTABLE ON FCST SOUNDINGS...GETTING UP
TO 6-7KFT...SUGGESTING A LIKELY OCCURRENCE (PROBABLY PERIODS OF
IT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MORNING...BUT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS EAST. THE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WHILE FOG ALSO BECOMES AN ISSUE. EVEN
PLAIN DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH IMPACT ON
COLD/SNOW COVERED ROADS...KEEPING THEM QUITE SLIPPERY/SLUSHY. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER...BUT DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS WHETHER OR NOT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. NOT SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM RIGHT
NOW...AND WE MAY ONLY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO...DOWNSLOPING FLOW IS LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NE LOWER UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF AN IMPACT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THAN NE
LOWER...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH/ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK
AS IMPRESSIVE.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S TODAY...LOW TO MID 40S
AROUND/SOUTH OF GTV BAY...WITH TEMPS DOING LITTLE TO NOTHING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...STAYING MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE LIKELY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE SIDE.
COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CHANGE ANY
REMAINING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS BUT COULD SEE HEADLINES
BEING REQUIRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF
THANKSGIVING DAY (THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
TO DEAL WITH). PERHAPS SOME NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS
IN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...

QUITE THE DIFFICULT FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WAS WORKING THROUGH AREAS JUST SOUTH OF
MANISTEE...AND WILL CROSS JUST SOUTH OF ALPENA OVER BY MID
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WAS AFFECTING MANISTEE...BUT TEMPERATURES WERE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...THE ONLY ICING POTENTIAL
WILL BE IF DRIZZLE CAN DEVELOP BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE. EVERY
PIECE OF DATA IS STILL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AM
GROWING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT IN THAT NOT HAPPENING...AS THERE
HAS BEEN ZERO INDICATION OF ANY DRIZZLE OCCURRING
UPSTREAM...OUTSIDE OF THE WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS
WISCONSIN. SO...BEFORE ANY DRIZZLE DEVELOPS...THE THINKING IS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING (MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT).

WHAT IS CERTAIN...IS THE SOLID/THICK MVFR CIGS THAT WILL GO
NOWHERE TODAY...ACTUALLY LOWERING INTO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT WITHIN
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK. SSW GUSTS 20-30MPH THIS
MORNING WILL COME DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE LOW
LEVELS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE...DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN STILL
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DESPITE INCREASING
STABILITY...BUT ADVISORIES WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST AREAS. MAYBE
ANOTHER GALE MAY BE NEEDED IN LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE AND RAINFALL. COLDER AIR
POURS BACK IN MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL MARINE WIND/WAVE CONCERNS INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ022-023-
     027>030-032>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



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