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000
FXUS63 KAPX 170204
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1004 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON SATURDAY...MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. COOLER/DRIER AIR HAS STEADILY
FILTERED IN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO
THE 40S IN A NUMBER OF LOCALES...AND IT/S UNUSUAL TO SEE TVC AMONG
THE COLD SPOTS (AT LEAST IN NORTHERN LOWER) AT 47F. THOUGH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD TOWARD CALM...WE DO HAVE CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF
FROM TSRA IN IOWA TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID...TEMPS ARE
OFF TO A SOLID HEAD-START. FROST ADVIS SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

JUST SOME HOUSEKEEPING TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS THIS EVENING...NO
OTHER CHANGES OF NOTE SO FAR. AM WAITING FOR RH LEVELS TO RISE
ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR BEFORE REMOVING FIRE DANGER WORDING FROM
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK...BUT THAT SHOULD HAPPEN BY 9 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

SUN-FILLED SKIES AND RATHER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE THE NAME OF
THE GAME THIS AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. COMBO OF VERY DRY AIR...REMNANT GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE HAVE FALLING JUST
SHY OF REG FLAG CRITERIA. ABOVE IS ALL PART OF A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM...WITH CENTRAL PLAINS LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE AXIS FLANKED BY DUAL LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHS. UPSTREAM RIDGING
STEADILY BUILDING EAST...NOTED BY SLOWLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ABOVE ENSURES RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS...WITH
FORECAST CONCERNS TIED TO OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD
TRENDS (AND POSSIBLE FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT).

ABOUT IDEAL SET-UP FOR A QUICK NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND AMBIENT VERY DRY AIR MASS.
CURRENT DEW POINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH A FEW MORE HOURS YET OF MIXING SUGGESTING EVEN LOWER
DEW POINTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING. NAM-WRF BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES
SHOW TONIGHTS OVERHEAD AIR MASS WAS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA LAST
NIGHT...WHERE LOWS DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. EXPECT SOME
MODIFICATION...BUT STILL THINK WIDESPREAD READING IN THE MID 30S ARE
EASILY ATTAINABLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH ISOLATED
NEAR 30 DEGREE LOWS IN THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS. OF
COURSE...JUST A TOUCH WARMER NEAR THE BIG WATERS SHORELINES.
UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOW-OFF AND INITIAL STAGES OF HIGH LEVEL
SATURATION LIKELY TO BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. DON`T THINK THESE WILL
HAVE TOO MUCH AFFECT ON OVERNIGHT READINGS...HOWEVER. THUS...WILL
GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EXCLUDING GLADWIN AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES NOT IN SEASON YET NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE).

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WA
CONTINUES. BETTER SHOWER PRODUCING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/MID LEVEL
WIND CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET.
WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY FOR A LATE DAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA. MODIFYING AIR MASS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT STILL ABOVE
MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF DEW POINTS IN THE 30S...ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND WITH ABOVE
TEMPERATURES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: FIVE WAVE PROGRESSIVE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN IN PLACE.  FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM MOSTLY ZONAL TO A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...BIT OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS REMNANTS OF AN OLD BAA
SUBTROPICAL UPPER LOW (RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT`S TEXAS TORNADO
OUTBREAK) MOVES THROUGH.  TROUGHING BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ALONG
THE WEST COAST WHILE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW...WHICH SETS THE
STAGE FOR GREAT LAKES WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:  EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WESTERN END
OF THE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BOW NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/
NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  BEEN TRYING
TO PUSH ALONG THE IDEA OF A DRY SATURDAY FORECAST...BUT WONDERING IF
THAT PUSH IS GOING TO HAVE TO COME TO AN END.  WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...THE REMNANTS OF WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING EAST
TOWARD MICHIGAN.  NO INSTABILITY OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS LOW
LEVELS WILL BE DRY AND MOIST INFLOW WILL NOT BE DIRECTED AT THE
FORECAST AREA.  BUT MAY END UP WITH A AC/AS DECK AND SOME LEFTOVER
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION PERSISTS.  DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT ALSO DOESN`T
LOOK AS NICE SATURDAY AS EARLIER EXPECTED (AT THE VERY LEAST A
LITTLE MORE CLOUDY...AND FORECAST HIGHS WILL REFLECT THAT IDEA).
WILL TREND THE FORECAST DRIER AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUNDAY
LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY):  HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO THE
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THIS
ENERGY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE NEXT WEEK.  EAST-WEST
BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LAKES...THOUGH
EXACTLY WHERE IT SETS UP IS UNCERTAIN.  WILL PROBABLY NOT VACILLATE
TOO MUCH ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK...KEEPING THINGS
GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND WILL WAIT ON THE DETAILS (THOUGH POSSIBLE
THAT MONDAY MAY END UP MOSTLY DRY).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO MI FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
DRY AIR TO THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE TVC/MBL AREA...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
VERY COMFORTABLY VFR. WINDS WILL GO CALM THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

REMNANT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE...
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
BECOME EAST FRIDAY...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ016>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB