Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 090848
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...ADAM


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