Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KAPX 220143
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
943 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A few showers managed to hang on near Mio even a touch past 00z.
But this activity and associated cloud cover is finally exiting to
the se, as high pressure noses a bit more aggressively toward
northern WI and upper MI. Low clouds are now se of an HTL-APN
line. Some cirrus is starting to edge into southern portions of
the forecast area, and though this will remain thin, will need a
slight upward adjustment to overnight cloud cover south of M-32.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

...Clearing skies tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...none.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Mid level short wave and attending
surface low moving across the southern Ontario/Quebec border this
afternoon. Trailing surface trough stretches back across the tip
of mitt. "Wrap around" cloud cover and weak-ish forcing extends
across eastern Lake Superior into eastern upper Michigan. Still
seeing spotty precip on regional radar plot including another
small pocket of rain showers that popped up over northern lower
Michigan in the last hour or two (just won`t go away).

Upstream...Canadian high pressure/pocket of dry air is over the
Northern Plains into Ontario and has been edging ever so slowly
into the western Great Lakes. Cloud cover is thinning across
eastern upper Michigan and showing signs of eroding over far NW
lower Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Minimal. High pressure/dry air will
build into the region tonight through Saturday...with lots of
sunshine/warmer temps anticipated Saturday. Forecast soundings
suggest surface dewpoints might tank during the afternoon...possibly
into teens resulting in some fairly low afternoon RH values.
Otherwise...no other real changes made to the going forecast
through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

...Generally pleasant weekend into early next week...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: High pressure will be sandwiched across the Great
Lakes this weekend into early next week between two systems, one
across the southeastern U.S. and another centered near James Bay
with a cold front progressing toward southern Ontario Saturday night
into Sunday. As a result, pleasant weather is expected to prevail
across most areas through the remainder of the weekend into the
start of next week. The exception may be across eastern Upper where
increased cloudiness and perhaps a few scattered showers may
accompany the approaching front before is stalls/washes out,
effectively lifting back northward as a warm front during the day
Monday as low pressure ramps up across the plains.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Very little in the way of concern
throughout the short term forecast period with the main challenges
revolving around increased cloudiness and perhaps a few showers
across eastern Upper Sunday morning and again Sunday night.

Mainly clear skies Saturday evening are expected to be overrun with
increasing clouds after midnight across eastern Upper as the
aforementioned cold front tied to low pressure near James Bay sags
across Lake Superior and the UP. South of the bridge, mostly clear
skies continue. In combination with light winds - decent radiational
cooling looks like a good bet, so have opted to bump Saturday
night`s low temps down a few degrees below guidance, especially in
the typically cooler interior locations (lows in those areas ranging
from the mid-20s to 30 degrees). Limited moisture ahead of and along
the front should really limit any precip chances, but can`t rule out
a few scattered showers Sunday morning north of the bridge.
Otherwise, not much expected in terms of sensible weather as the
front weakens/washes out across the area with highs ranging from the
mid-40s north to the low 60s near Saginaw Bay.

By Sunday night, developing low pressure across the plains will aid
in quickly ushering the front back northward as a warm front with
another threat for a few light showers across the UP as it does so,
otherwise south-southeasterly winds gradually increasing throughout
the day Monday under partly sunny skies. High temps Monday varying
from the mid 40s north to the low 60s south of M-72/west of US-131.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Active pattern through the extended will bring on again off again
rain chances as we head into the weekend. While high pressure tries
to build into the region, a series of lows moving out of the Plains
will bring rain chances. This will likely result in alternating days
of rain and no rain, though clear skies may not prevail on rain free
days. A system currently progged to arrive late in the week will be
one to keep an eye on. While just outside of the current extended
period, hints are there for a deep, negatively tilted H5 trough with
plenty of Gulf moisture available to arrive sometime during the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

VFR.

Low clouds and lingering showers are exiting to the se, and won`t
pester the TAF sites (except for APN over the next hour or two).
High pressure will gradually poke into lower MI from the west,
providing quiet wx for Saturday.

Lingering gusty nw/nnw winds will diminish tonight, with a light
northerly breeze Saturday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Gusty NW-N winds persist into evening hours...diminishing as we go
through the night. Ongoing small craft advisories run through
midnight which should be sufficient to cover stronger gusts/higher
waves. Northerly flow continues into Saturday while further
weakening through the day. Lake breezes are likely for most
lakeshore areas.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...TBA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.