Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 191725
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
125 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Early this morning, deep low pressure was crossing far nrn Ontario,
with it`s associated dry cold front pressing through nrn Lake
Michigan. Atmosphere is way too dry for any rain threat (less
than 0.75" PWAT), and as thought, nothing on radar. Outside of a
band of higher cloud and scattered strato cu, clouds were not
impressive either. We did still have a tight pressure gradient
around with gusts still 20-30 mph in many areas, but that will be
relaxing over the next handful of hours as well. The winds were
keeping temperatures up, with readings in the middle 50s to lower
60s.

The cold front will cross all of nrn Michigan by daybreak, with
higher pressure sliding in by evening. The gradient will remain tight
enough across eastern upper and mainly areas north of M-72, for
gusty conditions again to around 25 mph. Once the frontal clouds
pass over the next few hours, there will be a period of cirrus
floating by in advance of some weaker vorticity seen in the fast WNW
flow aloft. Trends heading into the afternoon will be for sunny
skies however. The next low pressure system will be developing in
western Canada by late tonight. Mid level heights rise while a warm
front lifts toward the nrn Mississippi valley and central Canada.
Could be some additional high clouds, but all-in-all, a rather clear
night. The pressure gradient will gradually tighten again, keeping
temperatures from falling to their potential. While highs today will
be in the low to mid 60s most areas, lows tonight will largely be 40-
45F. Maybe some upper 30s in low areas in weaker gradient near
Saginaw Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...Warm, dry stretch nearing its end...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High and dry sunny pattern continues on
Friday with strong subsidence from a highly amplified upper ridge
overhead and a strong surface high over the Ohio Valley extending
into northern Michigan. As these features slide east of the area
Friday night into Saturday, the pattern will eventually begin to
break down. This will lead to a gradual increase in clouds on
Saturday, though still expect at least partly sunny skies. Not out
of the question that an isolated shower pops up over eastern Upper
Saturday afternoon as weak isentropic lift and some mid level energy
move in, but it will take some time before low levels moisten up.

Southerly flow - somewhat breezy both afternoons - will draw
increasing warmth into the region with highs a good 15 degrees
warmer than normal for the third week of October. Most of northern
Lower will climb into the low 70s both days with mid to upper 60s
for eastern Upper.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Upper ridge will break down and slide off to the east Saturday night
as a deep shortwave trough approaches from over the Plains. This
trough will also bring a cold front into the area on Sunday, with a
plume of higher moisture streaming in ahead of the front as early as
Saturday night. A weakening axis of instability Saturday night will
creep in with very meager elevated CAPE. Not looking like any decent
chance of thunder for the APX forecast area, but something to
monitor. Highest chance of showers looks to come Sunday afternoon
and night with the passage of the cold front.

Sunday`s cold front will lead to a slight decline in temperatures
for Monday, but a stronger cold front will be right on its heels for
Monday night. Models split on just how cold of an airmass this front
will usher in for the middle part of next week. Latest runs seem to
be trending not as cold. Wouldn`t rule out some lake enhancement,
but the 19.00Z ECMWF and Canadian show a wrapped up surface low
lifting into the region with 850 temps only dropping to maybe around
-2C by late Wednesday. GFS is colder, but as previous shift alluded
the chance for first snowflakes of the season is still in question.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Surface ridge axis will build over Michigan tonight...with the
upper level ridge axis building into our area on Friday. Solid VFR
conditions are expected at all Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites
thru the 24 hour period. LLWS will develop around PLN tonight as
low levels decouple and winds just off the deck strengthen. West
winds will continue to gust to 20 kts this afternoon. Winds will
shift to the S/SW tonight and decrease to 10 kts or less.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Gales, for the most part have ended across the nearshore waters,
but advisory level gusts are still fairly widespread. With the
gradient staying relatively tight across the nrn portions of Lakes
Michigan and Huron, as well as Whitefish Bay, these waters will
have to see continued headlines. Others can fade after today.
Additional advisories anticipated later tonight into the weekend
with possible gales Saturday night into Sunday, as another deep
low pressure moves into central Canada. There will be a rain
chance Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD


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