Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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354
FXUS63 KAPX 232354
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
754 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High impact weather potential: Elevated fire weather conditions the
remainder of this afternoon, and again for parts of the area
Tuesday. Non-severe thunderstorm concerns Tuesday.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Warm, early summer-like pattern
well established across the Great Lakes, with stout mid level
ridge axis overhead, all-the-while its surface reflection slowly
pushes off to our east. A super modified airmass and plenty of
sunshine has resulted in another day of well above normal
temperatures, with some areas across northern lower Michigan
topping the 80 degree mark this afternoon. While the warm weather
looks to last for the foreseeable future, the dry pattern will not
as overhead ridge eventually folds east of the region. This will
allow weak upstream front and plume of attendant deeper moisture
to push into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat for showers
and a few thunderstorms along with it (with plenty of more rain
chances for the remainder of the week).

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Fire weather concerns for
the remainder of this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.
Addressing shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday.

Details: First order of business centers on lingering elevated fire
danger concerns this afternoon. Very dry airmass and warm
temperatures in place across northern Michigan for the next few
hours, with both critical levels for temperatures and rh easily
being met across much of the area. Winds remain mostly light, a by-
product of light wind fields through a deepening mix layer. Some
gusts noted along advancing lake breezes, but these have been of
short duration. Expect this trend to continue, negating any specific
red flag warning (although brief red flag criteria conditions will
likely occur).

Fire weather concerns quickly end this evening. Otherwise another
quiet night, with any upstream shower activity likely waiting until
after sunrise Tuesday to reach our area. A much milder night
compared to recent standards, with maintenance of weak winds and a
deeply modified airmass keeping temperatures in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

Definitely not a slam dunk all areas will see some much (much)
needed rain Tuesday. Moisture advection does continue as that
upstream cold front makes slow progress southeast through the
western lakes. Forcing is not terribly strong...with weak mid level
forcing and a rapid loss of any lower level jet support. Model
derived soundings/instability progs show some potential, with
upwards of a few hundred joules/kg of mean layer cape development.
Not even sold on this idea, as those same models shows lower 60
degree dewpoints by Tuesday afternoon. That sure seems aggressive
given recent very dry stretch of weather. Given such
concerns/uncertainties, will lower pops some (removing likely
wording). Thunder threat still there, but not seeing any severe
potential given weak wind fields and lack of deeper instability.

As for fire weather: Looking like another 2 out of 3 day, with warm
temperatures and marginally gusty winds being the culprits. As
mentioned, low level moisture will be on the increase, but likely
not to the magnitude being projected with some guidance progs.
Still, looks as if rh values will remain above critical levels
(hopefully). However, can definitely not argue with land management
agencies request to keep inherited fire weather watch through
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Tuesday night through Thursday...

Pattern synopsis/Expected evolution: Deep upper-level troughing
centered over the Intermountain West with ridging centered squarely
over northern Michigan this afternoon. Surface high pressure will
steer our sensible weather through Tuesday morning with little in
the way of concern through that time (except for fire weather issues
through midday Tuesday). Ridging gradually breaks down Tuesday into
Tuesday night, setting the stage for a large scale pattern shift and
increasing precip chances for the middle to end of the upcoming week.

Forecast challenges:  PoPs/QPF/precip timing Tuesday night through
Thursday. Small severe threat for Thursday?

Details: Moisture starved cold front continues to trek across
northern Michigan, clearing the area Tuesday evening. However,
chance PoPs will continue to be the rule Tuesday night as slightly
unsettled conditions are expected to continue post frontal passage,
but all indications point toward precip remaining fairly scattered
in nature. While the best thunder chances will certainly be tied to
the front as instability peaks prior to FROPA, will go ahead and
continue slight chance of thunder for the remainder of the night to
account for limited remaining instability and an ill-defined post-
frontal shortwave progged to slide through the northern Great Lakes.

While warm and somewhat unsettled Wednesday, expecting much of the
daylight hours to remain dry as a pocket of low-mid level dry air
pinwheels through the region. The only exception may be far southern
areas late in the day as a tongue of moisture begins to trek
northward - generally limited to south of M-72. By Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, a warm front is progged to ride northward
into northern Michigan. As we`ve seen countless times in the past,
have concerns that the front may get hung up over southern Michigan
leading to more of a cooler/status type Wed night-Thu rather than
showers and potentially convection. Run-to-run model consistency
precludes overly high confidence and is worth monitoring in future
outlooks.

At this juncture, less confidence prevails in the details for
Thursday, all dependent on the surface warm front mentioned above.
If frontal positioning can make it as far north as the bridge/
eastern Upper, as progged by several guidance members, Thermodynamic
/kinematic parameters would certainly improve over portions of the
area with MLCAPE values approaching 1000-1200 J/kg, 0-6 km bulk
shear 30-45 kts, and low level lapse rates > 7 C/km. While
parameters would suggest that we`d have to be at least aware of a
scattered severe threat, virtually non-existent forcing may inhibit
much of any precip development Thursday afternoon. Have concerns
that the latest GFS may be considerably overdoing QPF/convective
signals Thu afternoon due to convectively induced vorticity maxima
upstream (tied to convection over southern Nebraska Wednesday night
that is modeled to slide northeastward toward the Great Lakes by Thu
afternoon). All in all, low confidence exists as to how Thursday
afternoon will end up playing out, but would be remiss to not at
least mention a small severe threat.

Mild temperatures are expected throughout the period with highs Wed
and Thu in the middle to upper 70s (cooler near the lakeshores)and
overnight lows ranging through the 50s.

Gillen

Extended (Thursday night through Monday)...

A frontal system that is anchored to a low in the
northern plains makes an attempt to advance further east Thursday
night. A warm front laying across the lakes (positions vary
depending on the model) and waves of energy lifting into the area
in advance of the actual frontal boundary...will set the stage for
convection across Michigan. The best chance for any significant
thunderstorms looks to be Thursday night into Friday right now.
That said...the eastern advancement of this system stalls
again...keeping unsettled conditions around for the duration of
the holiday weekend. Stuck in a warm and relatively humid airmass
(for northern Michigan), thoughts are that we`ll be dodging the
more hit and miss type of shower/thunderstorm activity. Although
this could damper Memorial weekend activities for some...the more
important point is the much needed rainfall to help the fire
situation.

KAB

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 754 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

...VFR conditions continue...

High pressure continues to hang on over the eastern lakes region
with mainly clear skies across northern lower Michigan. Upstream,
southerly return flow of moisture into the midwest and far western
Great Lakes is firing off pockets of showers and storms into
Iowa/Minnesota and Wisconsin. Southerly return flow will
eventually shift into lower Michigan on Tuesday and bring the
chance for showers and a few thunderstorms to the region.

Clear skies and VFR conditions tonight. Upstream band of cloud
cover and some showers/storms shift into northern lower Michigan
on Tuesday. Mainly VFR bkn cigs anticipated however.

Winds, light tonight. There is a marginal possibility for low end
LLWS to develop at PLN/TVC/MBL overnight, but I have not included
in the terminal forecasts at this juncture (may add with the 06Z
issuance). SW winds on Tuesday around 10 knots with some higher
gusts anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Sub advisory gusty winds will continue across the waters
tonight and Tuesday as a weak front slowly advances across the
region. Dry weather will give way to increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances Tuesday, with the threat for more showers and
storms continuing through the remainder of the week.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016-019-
     021-027-033.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH through Tuesday afternoon for MIZ017-018-
     022>024-028>030-034>036.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...Gillen/KAB
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...MSB



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