Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 271504
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1104 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...12Z APX SOUNDING STILL SHOWS
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 900MB AS STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO HOLD
ON. GETTING SOME BREAKS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER/WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY THOUGH FILLING IN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS...EXPECT
THAT THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE TOWARD MORE THINNING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND DRIER AIR ABOVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
IS MIXED DOWN. THIS CLEARING SHOULD THEN SPREAD SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST LOWER...BUT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE CLOUDIER SIDE. TEMPERATURES ALREADY
GETTING ABOVE YESTERDAY`S HIGHS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER...EXPECTING
MORE 60S FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF TO THE WEST
WITH A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL...STILL CYCLONIC...NW FLOW IN NRN
MICHIGAN. WE HAD SEEN SOME CLEARING LAST EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS...RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BL HAS RESULTED IN THE
REDEVELOPING STRATUS THAT IS EXPANDING BACK WESTWARD. NEARLY ALL OF
THE CWA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS NOW. THIS HAS HALTED TEMPERATURES
DROPS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE CLOSEST RAINFALL
WAS WELL WEST ACROSS SD WHERE AN MCS HAS FIRED OFF IN RETURN FLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH FORCING APPLIED BY A LLJ AND SHORTWAVE IN
THE NRN ROCKIES.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

PRETTY QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH WEAKENING WINDS
GOING ANTICYCLONIC...HELPING TO TEAR AWAY THE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS. ALSO...MIXING TODAY INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT
MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CUMULUS WILL DEFINITELY BE
AROUND...BUT ULTIMATELY CONGEALING INTO THE LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NRN/NE LOWER. THE CUMULUS WILL FADE AWAY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING/NIGHTFALL AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY. NOT TOO MUCH OF A CHANCE IN ANY CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
INT HE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT...DESPITE SOME SMALL HINTS IN THE DATA.
RATHER...WILL SEE SOME LIKELY INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES...WHICH LIFTS INTO THE
MN/NE REGION LATE TONIGHT. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE WELL WEST
OF US.

HIGHS WARMER TODAY FINALLY! LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE PATTERN CHANGE TO A MUCH
MILDER (MAYBE EVEN EVENTUALLY HOT?) STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY TO START THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE THE REBOUND PROCESS. PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH ROBUST SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION...LOCKED IN PLACE BY EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SEMI-PERMANENT EAST
PACIFIC TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL WEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEM.
REGIME DESCRIBED ABOVE IS MOSTLY A DRY ONE...ALTHOUGH STILL NEED TO
MONITOR EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASING SIGNALS
FOR WAVE INTERACTION AND PERHAPS A WETTER SYSTEM THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: AFTER A DRY/QUIET START TO FRIDAY...CHALLENGES GO UP/
CONFIDENCE TANKS HEADING INTO VERY LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL WAVE INTERACTION (OR LACK THEREOF) BETWEEN
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAK WAVE/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
CONSISTENCY IS TERRIBLE WITH NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE PROGS...NOT A
SURPRISE WHEN DEALING WITH SUCH FICKLE WAVE INTERACTION. WILL SAY A
SOLID NUMBER OF GEFS KEEP THE WAVES SEPARATE...FORCING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...WHICH MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA (LEAVING LITTLE MOISTURE FOR WHAT`S
LEFT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVE). ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME
DETERMINISTIC PROGS (E.G. 12Z ECMWF AND A GROWING NUMBER OF 00Z
GUIDANCE) SHOWING MUCH MORE PHASING...DRIVING A LEGITIMATE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE FORMER SOLUTION HAS MULTI-DAY RUNS VALIDATING IT...WHILE
THE LATTER IS A NEW SCENARIO THAT NEEDS PRECISE PHASING TO DRIVE IT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE LESS PHASED SCENARIO (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT INPUT FROM THE MORE WRAPPED-UP AND
WETTER SOLUTIONS. WHAT`S THIS ALL MEAN FOR THE FORECAST?
WELL...REALLY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THAT WHICH WAS
INHERITED...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...LINGERING A FEW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE EQUATION...WITH EVEN THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS KEEPING NEARLY ALL INSTABILITY LOCKED UP WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON
THOSE RAIN TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP READINGS FOR NOW JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WHAT EVER IMPACTS US SATURDAY
SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST BY SUNDAY...ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN THREAT.
REST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/ATTENDANT DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE REALLY TAKES HOLD. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE
STORY. TEMPERATURES A FAR BIGGER HIGHLIGHT...WITH SUPPORT ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES KICKING OFF
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. H8 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS/NEAR
20C AND SAID SUBSIDENCE SURE SUPPORT STATISTICAL PROGS SHOWING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL WARMER LOCALES UP NEAR 90 BOTH AFTERNOONS. THESE READING
WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR READINGS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK!

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...MVFR CIGS THEN CLEARING...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT NW WINDS GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER
LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL MIX
OUT TO A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK...WHICH WILL CONGEAL WITHIN LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER NRN/NE LOWER. CALM TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO HEADLINES FOR AWHILE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING INTO
FRIDAY. ALL SPEEDS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND...SWITCHING WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND
BRINGING A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOW...BUT POSSIBLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


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