Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 122302 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
702 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BRING SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY MILDER READINGS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE IS TAKING SHAPE UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN AND
IOWA IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING 300 MB JET MAX DIGGING INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES. DEEPENING MOISTURE IN THE VCNTY OF THESE
FEATURES HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN WISCONSIN AND ERN IOWA. NE EDGE
OF THIS PRECIP HAS BEEN TRYING TO SPREAD INTO SW PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT HAS HAD VERY LIMITED LUCK SO FAR
THANKS TO DRY LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. HAVE SEEN SOME EVIDENCE OF LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES PERIODICALLY REACHING THE GROUND AROUND FKS THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...STILL SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER PORTIONS OF
NE LWR MICHIGAN SE OF A LINE FROM APN TO HTL WHERE A FEW LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL STREAMING IN OFF OF LAKE HURON.

UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS IT DIGS
INTO FAR SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. LFQ OF THIS FEATURE WILL LINK WITH
THE RRQ OF A DEPARTING JET MAX NE OF MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN A
BULLSEYE OF JET COUPLING DYNAMICS RIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN TONIGHT INTO THE
VCNTY OF THESE FEATURES...ERODING ANY REMAINING DRY AIR AS
WIDESPREAD (CATEGORICAL) RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. LOWEST POP (LIKELY) WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG THE NW EDGE OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BOTH
TIMING AND POPS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVED
DATA. EXPECT QUITE A COLD RAIN TONIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP TO A
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40...BUT CERTAINLY NO THREAT FOR ANY
WHITE STUFF REARING ITS UGLY HEAD JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...CHILLY PATTERN HANGING AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS...

STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGING HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA FEEDING INTO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH/COLD PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT...A PATTERN SO REMINISCENT OF LAST
FALL/WINTER/SPRING. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES NOTED WITHIN THE
BROADER SCALE TROUGH...FIRST NOTABLE WAVE OVER THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND WILL IMPACT US OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE IS DIVING SE THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WILL BRING ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

THROUGH THE EXTENDED...EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH
PATTERN...SUGGESTING WE WILL SEE A SLOW RETREAT OF THIS WELL BELOW
NORMAL AIRMASS AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMER AIR SLOWLY
SPREADING BACK INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. PRECIP-WISE...ONCE WE GET
THROUGH THIS IMMEDIATE WEATHER MAKER TONIGHT/SATURDAY...NOT A
PARTICULARLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH
JUST A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAINFALL.

SATURDAY...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CROSSING THE
STATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE KICKING QUICKLY E/NE...FOLLOWED
BY STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND POCKET OF MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE DAY. SUSPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL STILL BE ONGOING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA VERY
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE PEELING OFF TO THE E/N THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. BUT IN ADDITION TO SYNOPTIC PRECIP...WITH TEMPS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER HOVERING AROUND 0C...WILL PROBABLY SEE
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PRECIP IMPACTING PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN
SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL..BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE..CLOUDY SKIES WILL HANG AROUND FOR A LARGE PART OF THE DAY
BUT GRADUALLY THIN OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE SE COUNTIES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM LAKE
INFLUENCES AND WITH A NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH
SOME LAKE CLOUDINESS MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF NW LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO THE STRAITS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST AND
EVENTUALLY SW. BUT LIGHT WINDS/CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME
CHILLY CONDITIONS AND GOOD PART OF THE CWA DIPPING INTO THE 30S.
COLDEST SPOTS...INTERIOR AND NE LOWER MICHIGAN (AU SABLE RIVER
VALLEY...ETC) WHERE SOME SPOTS WILL PROBABLY FLIRT WITH LOWS AT OR
BELOW 32F BY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN THE
FORECAST...BUT I SUSPECT WE WILL NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT. BUT WILL LEAVE THAT FOR TOMORROW.

SUNDAY...A (SLIGHTLY) BETTER DAY WITH RELATIVELY WARMER AIR EDGING
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. BUT...AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH HOW
MOIST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AND RH FORECAST REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT THE MODELS ARE SIMPLY
ADVECTING MOISTURE AROUND OFF THE LAKE. NONETHELESS...HAVE NUDGED UP
CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BUT STILL ONLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIPPING SE THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA TODAY WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES...KICKING A
WEAK-ISH COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. CERTAINLY NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BY ANY STRETCH WITH
MARGINAL MOISTURE/FORCING...BUT PROBABLY WORTHY OF LOW CHANCE POPS
PER THE GOING FORECAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM LONG WAVE RIDGING SPREADS WARMER AIR INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK
TOWARD NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (MID TO UPPER 60S) AND
POSSIBLY THE 70S NEXT WEEKEND IF THE EURO PANS OUT (PUSHES +16C 850
MB AIR INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY). BUT...BEING ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER
WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME HINTS OF A
WEAK FRONT SAGGING DOWN THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
(DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE YOU BELIEVE) THAT MAY CURTAIL OUR
WARM-UP. BUY EITHER WAY PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW AND HAVE NO
INTENTION OF ADDING ANY PRECIP TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
ARRIVES FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING.

RESTRICTIONS: EXPECT DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALL SITES.  UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS DO
NOT SUPPORT IFR...AND WILL KEEP CIGS NEAR 1.5KFT OVERNIGHT.  MVFR
CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY ON SATURDAY...LIKELY NOT DOING SO
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.  VSBYS MAY DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES /ESP
MBL-TVC-APN/ BUT FEEL THAT VFR VSBYS WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE.

WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS 5KTS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
BEFORE BACKING NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10-15KTS FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

BASED ON WATERSPOUT NOMOGRAM...NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NRN LAKE
HURON REMAIN IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STILL POSSIBLE. THUS...WILL
LEAVE A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS IN THESE NEARSHORE AREAS THRU
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES
NEEDED FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS AS NE WINDS AOB 10 KTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE N/NW AOB 10 KTS ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...MR





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