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000
FXUS63 KAPX 020311
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1011 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

AS ANTICIPATED...APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH /TOGETHER WITH MID
LEVEL SUPPORT/ HAS RESULTED IN A FLARE UP OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
E UPPER AND NW LOWER PAST 1-2 HOURS. AFTER INITIALLY PUSHING
TIMING OF SNOWFALL INCREASE FORWARD A COUPLE OF HOURS...INHERITED
FORECAST NOW APPEARS ON TARGET. MODELS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT RAPID DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE LATE TONIGHT...SO THE MAIN
BURST OF SNOW SHOULD ONLY BE THROUGH 06-07Z OR SO - WHEN MIXED
LAYER INCREASES AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT PASSES THROUGH. A QUICK
INCH OR SO POSSIBLE OVER NW LOWER /MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN/
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS APPEAR TO BE KICKING UP
PRETTY GOOD IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TROUGH AT FRANKFORT/MANISTEE...AND
WILL BOOST WINDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY LATE TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL TROUGHS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES...ONE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...A SECOND FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOUTHWARD
ACROSS IOWA/NORTHEAST KANSAS.  VORTICITY CENTER TRACKING EAST ALONG
THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER...AHEAD OF MORE GENERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING OVER MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  THIS FEATURE WAS
SPREADING CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN (OF THE MID/HIGH LEVEL VARIETY)
WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WERE
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE WISCONSIN SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL PULL
LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS.

TONIGHT...FOCUSING ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
THIS EVENING FOR SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL... THINKING THAT UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SERVE TO PULL INVERSION HEIGHTS UPWARD AND
PERHAPS SEED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ICE CRYSTALS THOUGH INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL DRY WEDGE LIKELY PRECLUDING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FROM PRODUCING MUCH PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY.  VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS SPREADING INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN...AND SUSPECT THAT MOISTURE WILL BE ENHANCED BY ITS
CROSSING OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SO DO LIKE THE IDEA OF INCREASING RADAR
RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...PROBABLY WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT INTO INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER WITH UPSLOPE FLOW.  SNOW
SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH SUSPECT
THINGS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LOWER.  IF THE PRECIPITATION UNFOLDS AS ANTICIPATED...A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW A POSSIBILITY ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WELL DEVELOPED SPLIT FLOW
REGIME FOUND ACROSS NAMERICA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ENERGETIC SOUTHERN
BRANCH ROTATING AROUND CALIFORNIA CENTERED STRONG SHORTWAVE...ALL-
THE-WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE SEEN ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN
HUDSON BAY CENTERED COLD CORE GYRE. CURRENT BUNDLE OF ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND ENERGY SHEARING
OUT OF THE CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE LOOK TO COMBINE AND DRUM UP A DECENT
LITTLE SNOW EVENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME...WITH OVERHEAD TROUGHING MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EVIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS
ALLOWING A MUCH MORE MILD PACIFIC ORIGINATED AIRMASS TO EVENTUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS. TIME WILL TELL...OF COURSE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRIMARY FOCUS CENTERED ON
TUESDAYS SNOW EVENT (AMOUNTS AND TIMING). TEMPERATURE TRENDS
ADDRESSED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DETAILS: A RATHER QUIET START TO THE WORK WEEK...WITH A FEW MORNING
FLURRIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN RIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
IN INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION.

MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER BEGINS LATER MONDAY NIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SHEARING
OUT SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN TROUGHING RACES NORTHEAST...ALL-THE-
WHILE MUCH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. STRONG NORTHWARD BOWING 160+ KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
SHOULD HELP WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LACK OF A TRUE STREAM MERGER AND
FAST MOVING WEAKENING SOUTHERN DYNAMICS LOOK TO KEEP THIS MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE AS IT RACES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF ANY CLOSED
OFF THE DECK SIGNATURE SHOULD PREVENT ANY DECENT TROWAL/DEFORMATION
DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL. WITH THAT SAID...WAA PROGS CONTINUE TO
LOOK RATHER INTENSE WITH A NEARLY 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRESSURE FIELDS. RESPECTABLE GULF MOISTURE TAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TO AROUND
HALF AN INCH. CURRENT GUIDANCE TRENDS SUPPORT SOME FLEETING FGEN
RESPONSE...WITH ANY HINTS OF INSTABILITY REMAINING WELL ELEVATED UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. WARMING THERMAL REGIME SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS...ALTHOUGH HINTS OF MAX OMEGA AT TIMES COUPLED
WITH FAVORED DGZ MAY OFFSET THIS SOME. SYSTEM IS A QUICK
MOVER...WITH BETTER FORCING PEELING OFF RAPIDLY LATER TUESDAY.
UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...LOOKING LIKE A 2-4/3-5 INCH TYPE SNOW
EVENT...WHICH MAY FALL RATHER HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY NOT WATCH MATERIAL...BUT A NEED FOR AN
ADVISORY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS IMPACTFUL SNOW EVENT IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCTS.

JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ATTENDANT SHOT OF
VERY COLD AIR PERHAPS INCREASING THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT WEDNESDAY.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT...HOWEVER...WITH ALL MOISTURE TIED TO
TUESDAY SYSTEM AND ANY LAKE RESPONSE LARGELY MUTED DUE TO EXTENSIVE
ICE COVER.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES: DOWNRIGHT BALMY BY RECENT STANDARDS ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...AND EVEN SOME
READINGS UP NEAR 30 SOUTH OF TRAVERSE CITY. UNFORTUNATELY...REALITY
SETS IN WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING OUR NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO REMAIN STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ARCTIC FRONT SWINGS THRU MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING 850 MB
TEMPS BACK BELOW -20 C IN ITS WAKE. STILL APPEARS THIS SHOT OF VERY
COLD AIR WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT SLIDES SE OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY NIGHT...
WITH RETURN SW FLOW QUICKLY SETTING UP FOR THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEK. ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC FRONT...THUS
YIELDING LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN
AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES FOR NW LWR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT QUITE COLD AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF OUR STATE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES
OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA...RIGHT THRU
THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO ONGOING STRONG CAA. THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO. FRIDAY WILL BEGIN OUR TEMP REBOUND IN RESPONSE TO THE
COMMENCEMENT OF WAA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ON FRIDAY WILL
IMPROVE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS
(ABOVE ZERO).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH /PRESENTLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI TO E
CENTRAL WI/...WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A QUICK UP-TICK IN SNOW SHOWERS DOWN WIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN...AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING - WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN SHSN AT MBL/TVC/PLN
THRU ABOUT 06Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS /SCT 030-035 KFT AGL/ BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS REGION. SW BREEZES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MLR
AVIATION...SMITH