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000
FXUS63 KAPX 061156
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
656 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL WEATHER TODAY...WHILE A COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT
BOUNDARY WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...AND
PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIP NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING SMALL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE STRAITS...WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO START THE WORK WEEK ON MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

NO SUNRISE SURPRISES THS MORNING...AS SKIES STILL MAINLY CLEAR. SO
CURRENT FORECAST IS FINE OUTSIDE OF GOOFY TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...QUIET TODAY AND A LITTLE WARMER/MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NORTH...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHWEST QUEBEC...WITH A BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BITTER COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED BENEATH THIS HIGHS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH SOME OF THAT COLD SPILLING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.  UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A BIT OF A SPLIT OVER THE NATION`S
MIDSECTION.  A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST...WHILE WITHIN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THIS SPLIT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE MOVING ACROSS
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH ANOTHER WEAK FEATURE OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH DAKOTA AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER AND
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.  WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING OVER THE PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH...BUT STILL EASTERLY COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MICHIGAN THOUGH
QUITE DRY AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH ACROSS THE STATE.  THE RESULT IS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON
WHERE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF (OR NOT)...SO SOME POCKETS OF TEENS
BELOW ZERO INTERSPERSED WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO (E.G., AT 08Z PLN -18/GLR -1/APX 4/GOV -18).  ACTUALLY A VERY
GOOD EXAMPLE OF A 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SPEED JUST STRONG ENOUGH
(10-15KTS) TO KEEP A BREEZE GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN (WHERE
IT`S WARMER) BUT ALLOWING LOW LYING AREAS TO DECOUPLE AND
TEMPERATURES TO CRATER.

QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY...
PUTTING THE UPPER LAKES MORE FIRMLY INTO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND COMPONENT.  WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO SPIN UP OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...BOTH
WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
ALONG WARM ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WITH POSSIBILITY OF UPSTREAM
LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING/DEVELOPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA (AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE??).  AFTERNOON WINDS.

TODAY/TONIGHT...CURRENTLY LOOKING AT A SUNNY START TO THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN BARRING ANY "SUNRISE SURPRISES".  WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND PROBABLY SOME
MID CLOUD LATE IN THE DAY GETTING INTO EASTERN UPPER AND PERHAPS FAR
NORTHWEST LOWER.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY DURING
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH GUSTS OF 20-25MPH
EXPECTED.  DESPITE THE COLD START...EXPECT SUN AND INCREASING WINDS
TO MIX AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 20S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT AN
IMPROVEMENT.

SOME THINGS TO LOOK AT FOR TONIGHT.  AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS MORE
NORTHWEST LOOKING AT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN.  STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
DECK TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MIXING RATIOS IN CONCERT WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING.
MEANWHILE...DEEPER MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL
SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP LATE.  SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BE MORE
VARIABLE AS INITIAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE WILL
THIN DURING THE EVENING...BUT MAY RETURN LATE AT LEAST ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  NOT AS STRONG A SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT...AND CONCERNED THAT
FORECAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE (STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON).  SO A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER FOR
TONIGHT.  VARYING CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT...AND WILL PROBABLY EVEN RISE A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

HERE ARE TWO WORDS I HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO USE MUCH THIS WINTER:
PATTERN CHANGE! INDEED THAT IS WHAT IS UNDERWAY AT THE MOMENT...AS
RECENT PRONOUNCED RIDGING OVER ALASKA IS WEAKENING WHILE THE RIDGE
AXIS IS SHIFTING INTO FAR EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE
NET EFFECT OF THAT REALIGNMENT IS TO ALLOW BROADER UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE LOWER 48 THE PAST WEEK OR SO (SEE THE MORE WIDESPREAD COLD
ANOMALIES OVER MORE OF THE COUNTRY)...BUT WITH A NICE-TO-SEE TREND
OF FASTER PACIFIC FLOW INVADING THE CONUS AT THE MOMENT AS A MORE
ZONAL CONFIGURATION IS UNDERWAY. THIS BASIC IDEA HAS BEEN MODELED
RATHER NICELY FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO...THOUGH OF COURSE WITH SOME
WOBBLES IN THE IDEA OF JUST HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL REACH THIS FAR
NORTH. INDEED WE ARE STILL SEEING QUITE A BIG OF VARIANCE AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THIS IDEA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS...BUT THE BASIC
TREND DOES APPEAR TO BE THAT WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...THOUGH NOTICE I SAID WARMER AS IN NOT
NECESSARILY WARM BY ANY STRETCH.

STILL LOOKING FOR A FEW FEATURES OF INTEREST THROUGH THE FORECAST...
WITH THE FIRST BEING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. AS
DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A SLOWER APPROACH OF THIS
FEATURE...NOT REALLY ARRIVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING WITH THE
ATTENDANT UPPER WAVE STILL LOOKS TO PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...
AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON THE WEAKISH LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING TO DRIVE ANY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE REGION.
COULD END UP SEEING A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY AS BETTER
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKS UP IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY...
THOUGH PER TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS...THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PERHAPS BE RELEGATED TO THE WESTERN U.P.
ANOTHER STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTS IN NORTHERN LOWER
TO SNEAK INTO THE 40S. SETUP LOOKS GOOD WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND PROGGED BETTER MIXING VIA TIGHTENING GRADIENT...WITH H9
TEMPS "SPIKING" TOWARD 0-2C. MAY SEE SOME ISSUES WITH THICKER
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE THICKEST STUFF (AT THE MOMENT AT LEAST)
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. BASED ON A SIMILAR SETUP A
NUMBER OF WEEKS AGO (WHEN MANY SPOTS SHOT INTO THE LOW/MID
40S)...WILL CAUTIOUSLY RAISE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES INTO AN
OPTIMISTIC RANGE OF 36-42 ACROSS THE AREA...WITH EVEN WARMER
READINGS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE PENDING THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
OCCURS.

LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER...ALLOWING MORE EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO
WORK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 10-12C...AND HAVE TO
WONDER IF THERE COULD BE A FEW SNEAKY CLOUDS STREAMING IN OFF ANY
BREAKS IN THE ICE COVER OFF THE LAKES BEFORE THE DRIEST OF AIR
ARRIVES AFTER 18Z. NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES ARE SOLIDLY OVER THE MOST
FROZEN PARTS OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR PER LATEST GLERL ICE
ANALYSIS...SO WILL AGAIN TAKE THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AND HAZARD A
GUESS TOWARD A SUNNY DAY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH WITH HIGHS FALLING
BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

FINALLY GETTING A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SLIP THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO...FORCING A PUSH
OF WARMER AIR THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN
LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. THAT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL LIKELY GO
INTO THE PRODUCTION OF SOME THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS...THOUGH WITH THE BEST ASCENT AND THUS SATURATION
EXPECTED FROM ABOUT THE STRAITS ON NORTH. PRECIP TYPE A LITTLE
TRICKY IN THIS SETUP GIVEN THE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR...BUT PLENTY OF
ROOM FOR EVAP COOLING PER FORECAST RAOBS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF M-68. HIGHS
VERY TRICKY AS COULD SEE SOME SNEAKY WARMTH FOR WESTERN AREAS IF WE
CAN MANAGE SOME AFTERNOON SUN...THOUGH KIND OF DOUBT IT AT THE
MOMENT.

THINGS THEREAFTER GET A LITTLE MURKY PUSHING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE REALLY STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF
STRONGER PACIFIC ENERGY INTO THE CONUS. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT
MILDER CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT THIS FAR NORTH AS THE REAL COLD IS
RELEGATED TO OUR NORTH...BUT IN THE EXPECTED FASTER FLOW...ALWAYS
HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE UNSEEN SHORTWAVE OR TWO THAT MAY ZIP
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT ARISES
TOWARD MIDWEEK...WITH THE ECMWF CARVING OUT QUITE THE STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH AND STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
ENSEMBLES REALLY WANT TO HANG ONTO A MORE ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE
PATTERN...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND COOLDOWN SOMETIME
TOWARD WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. REALLY HATE TO CLUTTER THE FORECAST
WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE (AND LOW PROBABILITY) POPS...SO WILL
PROBABLY JUST OPT FOR A DRY PERIOD MONDAY/TUESDAY...INTRODUCING SOME
LOW POPS TOWARD MIDWEEK. TEMPS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT SEE A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR READINGS TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 30S OR EVEN BEYOND FOR EARLY WEEK...PERHAPS COOLING
BACK BELOW NORMAL AFTER TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE AND
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE