Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 162043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
343 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

...Nuisance lake snow showers...turning warming starting

High Impact Weather Potential...none.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Stretched out short wave trough
extends from Quebec through lower Michigan and into the central
plains...the downstream leg of omega blocking across the western
CONUS. Small scale vorticity max/spin is evident on satellite
over southeast lower Michigan with an associated surface low
over southern Lake Huron and some semblance of a deformation axis
wrapping around through the Saginaw Bay/OSC area into central/southern
lower Michigan. Still some light snow occurring through that

Across northern Michigan...northerly flow lake and inland heating
induced snow showers/flurries continue...but have been relatively
minor through the day. There are a couple of heftier long axis
single lake bands running down through Lake Michigan and some
beefier lake snow showers migrating eastward across Lake Superior
that we will have to contend with later on. Otherwise...many areas
have seen a fair amount of sunshine today with dry air wedging in
from the north...especially in eastern upper Michigan.

Tonight...diurnal heating component to the snow showers/flurries
will fade quickly this evening leaving some northerly flow lake
snow showers near the coast. Low level mean flow will back
northwesterly this evening and westerly high
pressure builds southward into the central/southern plains. This
will push some of the heftier lake snow showers on Lakes Michigan
and Superior back into the coastline areas from Leelanau to
Manistee counties as well as parts of eastern upper Michigan
tonight. This should result in a period of heavier snow
showers/lower VSBYS for those areas...although relatively brief as
winds continue to back through the night.

Wednesday will start with lake clouds and probably some light
snow showers across NW lower Michigan that will migrate/fan out
inland through the morning. But much warmer air presses into the
western Great Lakes through the day...ending the lake effect snow
showers and thinning out cloud cover through the afternoon.
Gustier west winds return and will lead to some blowing snow
across the region.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

...Milder temperatures...

High Impact Weather Potential...Very Low.

Primary Forecast Concerns: None except for somewhat low wind chills
Wednesday night.

Wednesday night...A continued rather stout pressure gradient between
low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south will lead
to more gusty winds. Temperatures will be nearly steady to slowly
rising out of the middle teens to lower 20s but wind chill values in
the single digits can be expected.

Thursday...A short wave dropping down through the flow will bring a
quick shot of cooler air as well as a chance for a few snow showers.
Highs in the milder upper 20s and lower 30s.

Thursday night into Friday...The warm advection pattern resumes.
Cloud cover is a tough call with model soundings first showing
shallow moisture trapped below an inversion Thursday night then
mid/high level moisture Friday from a short wave moving by to the
north. So overall partly to mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower and
middle 20s. Highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

The main focus in the extended will be this system that will lift
over the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday.  It`s still very early to be
talking storm track...and will likely morph between now and then.
However...most guidance is showing us remaining in the warm sector
as the low lifts from the four corners to Wisconsin by Monday
morning.  Right now, it looks like a surge of mild air will have
precip begin as rain on Sunday...and then a wintry mix as colder air
wraps into the region Sunday night into Monday...and eventually all
snow late Monday into Tuesday.  More seasonal, colder air will then
settle back in.  The challenges to the forecast will be track,
timing and to what extent and impact any mixed precip will
present...and hopefully future runs will bring more confidence in
all these factors.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Northerly flow light lake snow showers will persist across
northern lower Michigan through the afternoon resulting in MVFR
cigs primarily at the TAF sites and occasional reductions in VSBY
(particularly at TVC and APN). Flow backs westerly tonight which
will clear things out for PLN and APN. But TVC and MBL will
continue to see MVFR cigs and some light snow showers through
tonight. Warmer air pushes into the region on Wednesday and will
return all TAF sites to VFR.




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