Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 270800
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT A WARM
FRONT INTO MICHIGAN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A
RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER WEATHER ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FOUND BY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...TRENDING MILDER INTO TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE HURON AND
WHITEFISH BAY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
FEW GALE GUSTS.

A TALE OF TWO AIR MASSES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SITUATED BENEATH ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
RIDGING STRETCHING NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND
EXPERIENCING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS/LOW DEW
POINTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...ONE DOESN`T HAVE TO LOOK
TERRIBLY FAR UPSTREAM (JUST EDGING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IN FACT) TO
SEE A BIG DIFFERENCE...WITH REGIONAL VWP PLOTS/NEAR TERM FORECASTS
INDICATING AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER TROUGHING
WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. QUITE THE MOISTURE SURGE WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH PWAT VALUES CRUISING UP TOWARD 1 INCH (NOT TOO
SHABBY FOR LATE OCTOBER) AND WORKING IN TANDEM WITH DEEPENING WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT TO DRIVE SEVERAL ARCS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES AND JUST MAKING A RUN AT THE WESTERN
CWA.

THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH SAID ELEVATED WARM
FRONT STEADILY MARCHING NORTH AND SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
AS ASCENT DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS. MOST PERSISTENT FORCING THROUGH
THE DAY ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRANSIT AREAS NORTH OF M-72 AND
UP INTO THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE SHOWERS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AXIS OF MODEST 800-600MB LAPSE RATES
FEEDING INTO THE BACK EDGE OF BETTER ASCENT WILL DELIVER A THUNDER
THREAT AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME...WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES PUSHING
500-800 J/KG. NO REAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN STABLE LOW LEVELS
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT WITH ROBUST SHEAR ALOFT...SUPPOSE IT
WOULDN`T BE COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONGER STORM OR TWO.
SPEAKING OF STABILITY...TEMPS TODAY ARE A STRUGGLE...AS MUCH OF THE
AREA REMAINS STUCK NORTH OF THE ACTUAL SURFACE WARM FRONT. THAT IDEA
ALONE COMBINED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE SOME PESKY CLOUD COVER SUGGESTS
SOME AREAS NORTH OF M-32 STRUGGLING THROUGH THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S...BUT SUSPECT SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL DO THEIR USUAL THING AND
SPIKE INTO THE 60S...PARTICULARLY IF WE CAN MANAGE SOME PEAKS OF
AFTERNOON SUN...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS MID LEVEL DRY
SLOTTING ARRIVES DOWN THAT WAY BEFORE SUNSET.

STILL LOOKING LIKE MANY AREAS WILL CATCH A BREAK THROUGH THE
EVENING AND VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY...AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE STRIPS OUT WHILE WE AWAIT STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS THAT WILL
COME AFTER 06Z. THOSE HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD WORK SOME MAGIC ON A WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION TRACKING ALONG A COLD FRONT INTO WISCONSIN...
HELPING GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THAT FEATURE WHILE IT LIFTS TOWARD THE
EASTERN U.P. STILL A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ABOUT JUST HOW STRONG THAT
LOW WILL BE BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT REALLY GET THE FEELING A
STRONGER SOLUTION WILL WIN OUT OWING TO AN ALREADY QUITE STRONG 110
KNOT JET UNDERCUTTING THE CURRENT NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH...WITH A
NOTABLE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ALSO WORKING THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THOSE TWO FEATURES GIVE HINTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL UNDERGO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AND LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER SURFACE REFLECTION.
IN EITHER CASE...THE END RESULT FOR US SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME -
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DYNAMICALLY FORCED
SHOWERS TO ROLL UP THROUGH THE AREA IN AN AXIS OF INCREASED MID
LEVEL DIFLUENCE...AIDED BY A QUICK BURST OF STRONGER UPPER JET
FORCING WORKING ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE ONE TROUBLEMAKER FOR
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS FAR NORTH MAY END UP BEING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MID MISS VALLEY/IL/IN ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL SUSPECT MOST SPOTS WILL SEE A BAND OF SHOWERS WORK
BACK THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THUNDER AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. TEMPS
SHOULD RISE FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT - NEVER A BAD THING IN
LATE OCTOBER!

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...GET READY FOR A PERIOD OF COLD...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. DARE I SAY...FLAKES?

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

VERY WAVY AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH
TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO IMPACT NRN MICHIGAN. THE FIRST WILL BE
OVERHEAD TUESDAY...WITH ONE SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE
REGION. THE SECOND IS A STRONGER SYSTEM...WITH A BLAST OF MUCH
COLDER AIR SET TO BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: A VARIETY OF FALL WEATHER...SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ON
HALLOWEEN.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE DEEPENED
SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS IT`S EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BLOWING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING EASTERN UPPER...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW...BURIED WITHIN TROWAL AND DEEPER LAYER -DIVQ. DRY
SLOTTING OCCURS VERY QUICKLY WITH FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING
STRIPPED OUT MOISTURE ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER.
OTHERWISE...FEEL THAT CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
WITH SLOWLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY IN CAA. LAKES GET
MORE ACTIVATED LATER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE MORE SO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY BE LATE...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ARRIVES...ALONG WITH A DECENT VORT MAX AND POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SOME POSSIBLE
FLAKES BURIED WITHIN ANY SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THIS IS MORE LIKELY A LONG
SHOT...AND RELATIVE WARMTH OF THE LAKES WILL HAVE A MODERATING
INFLUENCE AS WELL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING EXIT...THINGS TAPER
OF TO JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHTER RAINS IN THE NW FLOW REGIMES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE SCATTERED LIGHT RAINS IN THE NW
FLOW REGIMES MAY GET A LITTLE BOOST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A WEAKER WAVE...BUT THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR
WARMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE SET MAINLY
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY GOING WITH SLIGHT/SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HALLOWEEN AND HALLOWEEN NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE
SLAMS INTO NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A QUICK HEAVY SHOT
OF FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE FRONT
END...BEFORE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET AND THE AIR MASS
DRIES. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND/OR COLD AIR TRYING TO MIX IN SOME SNOW. THIS
MAINLY FOR EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. THE
MUCH COLDER AIR PLOWS THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO HALLOWEEN
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY FROM THE MORNING IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST (OUTSIDE OF AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE WARMER
LAKES). BUT HEY...AT LEAST IT`LL BE WINDY. AGAIN...THE AIR MASS
DRIES PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT H8 TEMPS INTO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE
SUGGEST THAT THE LAKES WILL BE ENERGIZED ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NNW FLOW
REGIMES. THIS IDEA CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHER PRESSURE
WILL BE DRAWING NEARER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND/OR
SATURDAY NIGHT (DEPENDING ON WHEN THE SFC HIGH IS OVERHEAD) COULD BE
VERY COLD. AM LOOKING AT LEAST FOR LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...AND VERY
POSSIBLY...COLDER.

NEXT WEEKEND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND A SLOWLY MODERATING AIR MASS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MAINLY VFR THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR MONDAY EVENING. LLWS
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO RETREAT FROM LOWER MI. AS IT MOVES
EAST...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARRIVES
BEGINNING VERY LATE TONIGHT. AN INCOMING CIRRUS DECK WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN...AND -SHRA WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS
AND VSBYS TO STAY VFR FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ANY TIME IN THE DAY MBL/TVC...AND IN THE
AFTERNOON PLN/APN. MONDAY EVENING...MVFR FOG WILL FORM.

LIGHT WINDS MOST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND DEVELOPING LATE AND
INCREASING MONDAY. LLWS AT MBL/TVC MONDAY...AND AT ALL SITES
MONDAY EVENING...WITH STRONG S WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO OUR WEST WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
CHANNELING UP THE LAKE HURON COAST INTO THE STRAITS AND ALSO UP
THROUGH THE ST. MARYS RIVER AND WHITEFISH BAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED IN THESE AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW GALE GUSTS AS WELL...THOUGH SOMEWHAT STABLE PROFILES OVER THE
WATER SHOULD MITIGATE WIDESPREAD/FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT WITH COLDER AIR QUICKLY SLAMMING BACK
INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER ONTARIO. THAT SETUP
SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE WATERS...WITH
GALE GUSTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND THROUGH THE STRAITS. WINDS WILL AGAIN BRIEFLY SETTLE DOWN
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE...
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER BURST OF STRONGER
WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ341-342.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ323-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE






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