


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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588 FXUS63 KAPX 110519 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 119 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and embedded thunder chances build tonight into Friday, particularly across northern lower. - Better shot at more widespread shower and storm activity Saturday into early Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 214 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level flow is in the process of becoming more zonal this afternoon with attendant Canadian- originated surface high pressure sliding overhead. Changes appear to be in the offing, however, as upstream MCS development and convectively charged shortwave trek into parts of the western Great Lakes by late tonight into Friday. Forecast Details: Just a real low chance for a rogue short-lived shower across northeast lower this afternoon amidst a bubbling shallow cu field. Otherwise, little in the way of sensible weather this afternoon/evening as quick-moving bubble of high pressure slides overhead. Focus largely transitions to late tonight through Friday as upstream (decaying) MCS over southern MN/eastern IA and southwest WI continues to slowly slide eastward. Secondary, much faster moving, convective complex developing over eastern NE, will provide the impetus to slide both of these features into parts of the western Great Lakes later tonight into Friday. Ultimately, there`s still some uncertainty as to where initial shower and embedded storm chances lie, but latest trends continue to favor south of M-72 into southwest lower MI late tonight through early Friday morning. By Friday midday into the afternoon, deep moisture expected to be on the increase with PWs climbing back above 1.5" with any additional daytime convective development bringing about the concern for locally heavy/torrential downpours. Also, some non-zero severe probabilities through this time frame given potential for lingering/remnant MCV(s) to be the driver of localized environments characterized by higher shear. Primarily a gusty wind threat with any potential storms given that warm/juicy airmass. The best chance for these scenarios generally lies south of M-32 (and even more so, south of M-72) where instability is expected to be focused. As was alluded to by the prior forecaster, this all throws a wrench into high temperatures for Friday with potential for 70s/low 80s in areas that see more clouds/precip. Outside of those areas, warming into the mid-80s still seems feasible. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 214 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Pattern Forecast: Potential for an active stretch of weather continues right on into Saturday as more aggressive troughing, taking on a more negative tilt with time, treks across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. Northern MI expected to be in the favorable right entrance region of southwest-northeast oriented upper-level jet maxima through this time frame with increasingly favorable large scale ascent yielding increased potential for additional shower/storm development along and in advance of a cold front attendant to low pressure trekking through Ontario to near James Bay. By late weekend into early next week, lower amplitude troughing/more zonal flow expected to prevail with a general reprieve in active weather before another potential wave sets its sights on the nation`s midsection toward mid-late week. Forecast Details: Primary focus through the long term revolves around Friday night through Saturday night. While plenty of uncertainty riddles this timeframe, latest trends are pointing toward a move favorable setup for potential convection with at least some severe/locally heavy rain concern. Initial uncertainty around Friday night as LLJ response increases -- potentially the driver of additional shower/storm development across parts of lower MI. If this occurs, expecting the most numerous coverage to be focused across the southern half of the state -- with the main issue locally being locally heavy downpours in an increasingly juiced atmosphere. PWs progged to increase even farther on Saturday (potentially near 2" -- locally some +1.5-3 SD above the mid-July mean) with dew points rising to near 70 degrees. Depending on convective evolution Friday night and cloud trends through the day Saturday, potential for additional shower/storm development exists later Saturday into Saturday evening in advance of the aforementioned cold front with increasingly favorable large scale ascent aloft. Locally heavy rain threat continues through this time frame, especially given flow largely parallel to the boundary, potentially leading to training convection. WPC Day 3 ERO includes the entirely of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk. In terms of severe weather -- again conditional at this point regarding trends Friday night/early Saturday, but assuming we can maximize daytime heating and destabilize (seemingly always our biggest issue), it`s a favorable set up for one or more bands of convection to develop with all severe hazards possible. SPC`s latest Day 3 SWO includes the entirety of the state of Michigan in a Marginal Risk. Many more details to be ironed out in the coming days. Beyond this system exiting stage right Saturday night/early Sunday, a general reprieve in active weather expected with more zonal flow aloft and higher surface pressures working in by early next week. Long range trends support renewed troughing towards the middle of next week bringing about the next chances for more numerous showers/storms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 114 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Mid high clouds continue tonight, with slight chance for BR. Clouds should mute this potential some. Chances for -SHRA/-TSRA on Friday, especially Friday night. Chance on Friday will generally be along/south of M-32, thus MBL and TVC have the best chance. Plenty of uncertainty in this regard and thus VCSH at this time. CIGs begin decreasing throughout the day, becoming MVFR at MBL, eventually potential for more MVFR heading into Friday night. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...JLD