Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 240352
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1052 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Deep low pressure continues to make its way northward up the East
Coast late this evening. Elongated area of relatively steady rain
extends thru our CWA southward thru Southern Lower Michigan into
Western Ohio...developing along the NW edge of the East Coast
system within an area of descent deformation and deep moisture.
Vast majority of our CWA remains above freezing...with an above
freezing surface based layer thick enough for precip to remain
mostly liquid attm. There are a few interior locations across
Eastern Upper Michigan that are likely seeing some mixed
precip...and may continue to do so as we head into the overnight
hours. However...precip should be mainly snow and/or sleet not
freezing rain due to lack of a warm layer aloft. Any snow
accumulation in this area will remain under an inch given the
wet/mixed/light nature of the precip. The rest of our CWA should
remain just above freezing most of the night...which should keep
precip type in the liquid category. Thus...the gradual melt of
the snowpack continues...for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday and Wednesday)
Issued at 337 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Unfortunately another night of fog is progged to linger across
Northern Lower Michigan, and guidance is indicating that areas of
dense fog could once-again develop. At this time have held off on
any dense fog advisory, as it is possible drizzle/sct lgt rain
could help to keep VSBYs from dropping too low but still fall to
around 1/2sm to a few areas of 1/4sm. This afternoon most VSBYs
have been able to climb above 1/2sm; however, there are a few
locations that have hovered around 1/4sm. With the light pressure
gradient overhead, winds have not been able to scour/mix the
environment. In addition surface temps have warmed into the
mid/upr 30s with Td`s nearly matching afternoon temps in the mid
30s. This is helping to accelerate the loss of snowpack.

Regional radar this afternoon indicates an area of light rain
lifting north/northwest across Saginaw Bay area and will
eventually overspread Northern Lower Michigan late this afternoon
into early evening. Forecast guidance has not indicated that an
abundance of liquid will be associated with this moisture feed.
With temps well above freezing through the lowest 0-3km, it does
not appear p-type will be much of an issue outside of the Straits
and Eastern U.P. where temps could be cold enough to allow for a
rain/snow mix. Prior to daybreak forecast soundings begin to
indicate some wet snow may mix with lgt rain for additional
locations; however, not expected to pose a hazard.

500mb ridge will lift further north Tue morning as the trough
upstream digs marginally into the four-corners region. This will
allow the thermal ridge in the mid-lvls to lift overhead and swith
any lgt snow/rain mix over to mainly rain by mid-day Tue. The
exception will be the far north, closer to the Straits/Eastern
U.P. where a rain/snow mix may linger longer into the afternoon
hours. Highs Tue will warm into the upper 30s once again, to the
mid 30s for the far north.

As was the case for tonight, will be similar to Tue ngt with
respect to p-type concerns. But Tue ngt may lean more heavily
towards a rain/snow and perhaps patchy freezing rain issue. The
omega/lift through the environment is more supportive Tue ngt,
which could help precip to switch over to lgt snow and perhaps
some sleet/freezing-rain; however, soundings are indicating the
warm air aloft may struggle to warm beyond -1 deg c. Thus it is
conceivable that precip stays as a wet snow. Overnight temps Tue
will struggle to fall below the lower 30s again.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

500mb vort will be lifting northeast through the mid-missouri
valley, with a detached surface low lifting northeast across
southern lake michigan Wed morning. This low then lifts northeast
to Manistee to Alpena, with some guidance indicating a narrow axis
of steady snow developing Wed morning with accums potentially
around an inch or two. Then guidance lifts the axis north by
midday/early afternoon, as temps warm once again into the mid/upr
30s.

Frontal boundary will approach the area later in the day Wed as
winds shift northwest. 500mb trough swings through the Great Lakes
late Wed ngt/early Thur, with somewhat more seasonal air filtering
into Northern Lower Michigan. Temps aloft will likely support the
development of lake moisture through the bulk of the extended,
which should introduce periodic chances for lake effect snow
showers. Temps will generally return to the mid/upr 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1050 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Solid IFR/LIFR conditions will persist at all Northern Lower
Michigan TAF sites thru Tuesday night thanks to continued
formation of low stratus and fog (locally dense) via ample low
level moisture...light winds and a continually melting snowpack.
Sct/nmrs rain showers will also impact all TAF sites tonight into
Tuesday morning along the NW edge of deeper moisture associated
with low pressure riding up the East Coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Light gradient continues with winds generally from the east across
Lake Huron, meanwhile over Lake Michigan winds have shifted to the
northeast. Pathy fog will continue through tonight, with locally
dense pockets, and likely into daybreak Tuesday. Winds will
remain light through the next day from the east.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...BEACHLER
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...BEACHLER



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