Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 201045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
645 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 20 2016

Stagnant high pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes region
early this morning...resulting in mainly clear temps
and light winds. Meanwhile...low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico
continues to produce severe weather across the Gulf Coast states...
including a rather large and impressive bow echo that just moved
east out of SE Louisiana into Srn Mississippi.

This area of low pressure will lift NE thru the Ohio valley and the
Appalachian mountains over the next 24 hrs or so. The majority of
clouds and all precip from this system should remain well south of
our CWA as strong high pressure and dry air thru the column remain
firmly in control thru tonight. Skies will stay mainly clear across
our entire CWA today and tonight. Overall light wind regime will
allow for lake breeze development again by midday. High temps will
warm into the low to mid 70s for most of our CWA...with cooler temps
near the lakeshores as is usual for this time of year. Potential for
frost should be a thing of the past once the sun rises today.
Continued moderation of the airmass overhead will lend to overnight
lows tonight only dropping into the mid 40s. Thus...expect no
frost/freezing issues tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 20 2016

...Nice and warm for a few days...

Low pressure will skirt by to our south Saturday while a weak cold
front approaches from our north. This scenario will lead to very
warm temperatures and sunny to partly cloudy conditions across
northern Michigan. Some spots will even likely flirt with the 80
degree mark (so have raised high temperatures). Ridging at the
surface and aloft reestablishes itself across the region Sunday and
holds into Monday. Not quite as warm Sunday but Monday should be
very warm once again. The pattern then becomes a little more chaotic
with western troughing trying to barrel right through the ridge
Tuesday (which may be a bit overambitious) followed by possible
energy emerging out of the western trough for the remainder of the
forecast. This will lead to chances for showers and slight chances
for thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to remain a few degrees
above average late May highs through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri May 20 2016

Solid VFR conditions will continue at all Nrn Lwr Michigan TAF
sites thru Saturday morning as strong high pressure and dry air
thru the column remain the rule. A light wind regime will lend to
lake breeze development again later this morning.


Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 20 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru the weekend as
high pressure remains in control of the weather across the Great
Lakes region. Dry weather will persist thru Sunday as well.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Sullivan
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