Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 220526
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

COLD FRONT IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SOME
-SHRA WERE SEEN EARLIER IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS...THOSE HAVE ALSO
MOVED DOWNSTATE. MID-CLOUDS LINGER NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-72...THESE
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE S AND E DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL LEAD TO ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS.
POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY TIGHT...AND WINDS ARE
STILL UP IN MOST LOCALES (AND STILL GUSTY IN PARTS OF NE LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER). THAT GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z...AND
WOULD EXPECT THAT SHELTERED LOCALES WILL EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE.

SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO POP/WX/SKY COVER
FORECASTS FOR THE EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
IN EASTERN UPPER...WHICH WILL TAKE LONGEST TO DECOUPLE. FEW
CHANGES NEEDED IN NORTHERN LOWER...WHERE THE CURRENT MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE...AND CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN LINE
WITH THE EXPECTED DIURNAL TEMP CURVE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

...POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...

THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING FAR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND TRACKING SOUTHWARD. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH A DRY AIR MASS HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INCLUDING
THE HURON NATIONAL FOREST. EARLIER SPRINKLES BURIED WITHIN THE
FRONTAL BAND OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH ONLY SOME
POSSIBLE SPRINKLES HEADING DOWN TOWARD GTV BAY/MANISTEE/CADILLAC.
CLOUD BASES ARE SO HIGH...DOUBT ANY OF THIS IS HITTING GROUND. SFC
OBS SUPPORT THIS. BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS NE WISCONSIN HAS INDEED
SPARKED A BETTER BUNCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH ILL-DEFINED LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. THESE SHOWERS WERE TRACKING WITH THE MEAN FLOW TOWARD
THE GTV BAY REGION...QUESTION IS WILL THEY HOLD TOGETHER. EITHER
WAY...IT`LL JUST BE VERY LIGHT RAIN AND LIKELY BRIEF.

SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AND WEATHER EXPECTATIONS...

NOT MUCH. MAIN ISSUE IS THE TEMPERATURES AND IMPACT OF
CROPS/SENSITIVE VEGETATION/FRUIT.

OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE GTV BAY REGION AND
AREAS SOUTHWARD...SKIES ARE CLEARING QUITE WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT/BAND OF CLOUDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES.

THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN DECIPHERING THE
LOWS TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FREEZE/FROST ISSUES...ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE ALSO GOING TO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE TOO. UPSTREAM
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF NRN
MICHIGAN. THESE FREEZE/FROST TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN THE NEED
FOR HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN...AND FOLKS SHOULD BE SAFE AND PREPARE
FOR COVERING CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. THE ONLY CAVEAT
TONIGHT WILL BE WINDS. GUSTY EVENING NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MAINLY THOSE LOWER
LYING AREAS SEEING A COMPLETE DECOUPLING...AND RESULTANT LOWEST OF
TEMPERATURES. MAYBE SOME OF THESE SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
20S. THE ABOVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

...COOL FRIDAY THEN WARMING UP THIS WEEKEND...

PATTERN SHIFT STILL ON TRACK OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GENERAL ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. IN
THE MEANTIME...RATHER COOL DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY LIKELY
FROST AND FREEZE ISSUES AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN SHORT TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
POPS SUNDAY.

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING THEN EXIT OFF TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A MUCH MILDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH
SATURDAY. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FROST AND FREEZE
ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN DECOUPLED THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST
PART. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE
30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE WARMER UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TOUGH FORECAST GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH
A MORE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMPING UP. THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS...SAVE THE ECMWF (THOUGH THE 12Z RUN IS A BIT MORE MOIST)
ADVECT MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND CERTAINLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SINCE THIS MOISTURE ALREADY
EXISTS OVER TEXAS WHERE THEY ARE DEALING WITH FLOODING ISSUES...IT
IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE SOME OF IT REACHES UP THIS WAY. SO
CHANCES INCREASES FOR RAIN SHOWERS (LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY
INITIALLY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME). A STAIRSTEP
APPROACH WITH ADDING IN LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE THE BEST
COURSE OF ACTION. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MILDER MIDDLE 40S TO
NEAR 50 AND HIGHS SUNDAY ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
(POTENTIALLY EVEN A LITTLE WARMER DEPENDING UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER).


&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

TO START THE PERIOD...A MOISTURE-RICH SYSTEM ABLE TO PULL FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO APPROACH NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREEMENT...MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN AN ON AND OFF FASHION THROUGH
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF A TROUGH THAT IS ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF THE CONUS. TOWARD MIDWEEK AND THE
END OF THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TERMS OF OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES AND COVERAGE...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY WAVE THAT COULD KICK OF SOME SHOWERS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
LOOK TO BE THE RULE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 70 DEGREES AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FEW AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

COLD FRONT AND BAND OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PRESS THROUGH THE FAR
NRN SECTIONS OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW FROM SEAL CHOIX TO THE
BRIDGE...THE OVERWHELMING FLOW WAS OUT OF THE WEST/WSW AND GUSTY.
WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT ALL AREAS...WITH
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY
THROUGH LAKE HURON. HERE...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS STILL ANTICIPATED
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF TONIGHT....FALLING OFF QUICKER IN
WHITEFISH BAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND SOME LINGERING SUB-ADVISORY GUSTINESS FROM
WHITEFISH BAY THROUGH LAKE HURON...OTHERWISE WEAKENING WINDS INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHER PRESSURE OVERHEAD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016-017-019-
     021-022-026>028-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ018-020-
     023>025-029>031-035-036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ346>348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...SMD


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