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000
FXUS63 KAPX 160818
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
318 AM EST MON DEC 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST MON DEC 16 2013

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. AS IT
DEPARTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REORGANIZE THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING PLACES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. CONTINUED BOUTS OF OCCASIONAL SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS PASS
THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER TODAY...WE WILL SEE SOMEWHAT MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST MON DEC 16 2013

NO REST FOR THE WARY. JUST WRAPPING UP ONE LAKE SNOW EVENT (AND WHAT
AN EVENT IT WAS FOR SOME!)...WITH YET ANOTHER HIGH IMPACT LES
OUTBREAK EXPECTED TO KICK INTO GEAR LATE TODAY. THIS ONE...
HOWEVER...WILL TARGET AREAS LARGELY UNTOUCHED BY YESTERDAY`S
"GOODIES". MORE ON THAT LATER. NOW...NOT A COMPLETELY QUIET NIGHT BY
ANY MEANS...WITH EVENING PASSAGE OF WELL DEFINED LAKE INDUCED
MESO-LOW VEERING WINDS QUICKLY NORTHERLY...TARGETING LAKE SNOWS INTO
AREAS NEAR GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND POINTS SOUTH. FORTUNATELY...THESE
HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY AS INTENSE AS THOSE EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...BUT NO DOUBT STILL PUTTING DOWN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW.
FROM A LARGER PERSPECTIVE...NORTHERN LAKES REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN
ARCTIC ORIGINATED AIRMASS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
SHORTWAVE. EVERYTHING TIED TO BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH YET
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SUCH DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN MANITOBA. IT WILL BE THIS LATTER FEATURE THAT WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S AND TONIGHT`S ADDITIONAL SNOWS...ESPECIALLY
VIA PRE-SYSTEM SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MANY...BUT
MAIN FOCUS CENTERS ON THIS LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT...AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE ATTENDANT HEADLINES. SO...HERE WE GO AGAIN :).

ACTUALLY...KINDA A QUIET START TODAY. OTHER THAN SOME LAND BREEZE
CONVERGENCE INDUCED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND UP NEAR WHITEFISH POINT...IT SHOULD BE A
DRY...ALBEIT COLD...MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THAT...HOWEVER...IS THE END TO THAT "NONSENSE". WINDS RESPOND
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRE-
FRONTAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. BURST OF DECENT -DIVQ/SYNOPTIC MOISTURE QUICKLY
FOLLOWS...OVERSPREADING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER 4 PM.
AND...THERE LIES THE PROBLEM...AS DESPITE "WAA" SOUTHWEST
WINDS...AIRMASS SIMPLY DOES NOT MODIFY IN TIME...LEAVING EXCELLENT
OVER-WATER DELTA T/S PER H8 NEGATIVE MID TEEN TEMPERATURES.
PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS EVEN MORE DISCONCERTING... WITH 750MB
CONVECTIVE DEPTH INCREASINGLY OVERTOPPED BY MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS.
STRONG OMEGA NOTED...BUT AT THE LOWER END OF THE DGZ. MIGHT NOT
MATTER MUCH...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE NOTED IN
HIGH RES GUIDANCE...NOT TO MENTION PHENOMENAL NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN FETCH LENGTH. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTS LOCALLY RUN
WRF DEPICTION OF BRINGING WELL ORGANIZED LAKE SNOW BAND INTO PARTS
OF WESTERN MACKINAC AND FAR SOUTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOTTA BELIEVE SNOWFALL RATES WILL WELL
EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...LEAVING DURATION AS THE WILD
CARD TO SNOWFALL TOTALS. THAT...IS THE MUCH HARDER QUESTION.
CONCERN IS FOR A BAND TO STALL FOR SEVERAL HOURS UP NEAR EPOUFETTE
(GIVE OR TAKE SEVERAL MILES) AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST CHIPPEWA
COUNTY. AND...THAT`S ALL IT WOULD TAKE TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL. AS SUCH...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY FOR BOTH COUNTIES...WITH 4 TO 8 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS.
PROBABLY SEE A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW PUSH INTO NORTHWEST LOWER THIS
EVENING AS MAIN WAVE PASSES. THIS LOOKS TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THINGS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND...BUT COULD EASILY SEE
3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS FROM LEELANAU DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE WHERE BAND
WILL LAST THE LONGEST. NOW...FOR HEADLINE DECISIONS...GIVEN
ISOLATED NATURE OF BANDING INTO MACKINAC COUNTY AND
CHIPPEWA...ALONG WITH LIMITED BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS...WILL HOIST A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD BURST OF SNOW
ALONG TRANSIENT BANDING STRUCTURE...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT GUSTIER
WINDS...WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/AND MANISTEE COUNTIES FOR THE SAME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SYSTEM ATTENDANT LIGHTER SNOWS TO SPREAD
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO BRING
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE INCHES.
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS PASSING WAVE RATHER MILD BY RECENT
STANDARDS...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C. SO...UNLIKE MOST OF
THIS EARLY WINTER...DO NOT EXPECT A BOUT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
SNOWS AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST MON DEC 16 2013

AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WITH THE
MOST PROMINENT TROFFING OVERHEAD AT MIDDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE AN
UNIMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING THRU MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROF WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY LOWER MI. POST-FRONTAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...AND BY
EARLY EVENING ON LAKE MI. THE SHOT OF COLDER AIR IS BRIEF...WE WILL
BE WARM ADVECTING AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW AND TEMP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TUESDAY...MOST PROMINENT DPVA FORCING WILL ZIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LAKES DURING THE LAKES. ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY...A SMALL
COMMA-HEAD OF MOISTURE WILL BE CROSSING WI JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND
WILL IMPACT LOWER MI FROM MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
COINCIDENT WITH COLD FROPA...AND WINDS WILL BE VEERING FROM SW TO NW
AS THE SMALLISH POCKET OF SYNOPTIC SNOW MOVES THRU. 925MB DELTA T/S
ARE AROUND 10-11C...WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR SOME SHALLOW ENHANCEMENT...
BUT NEITHER THE DEPTH NOR INTENSITY OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER SUGGEST A
POTENT LAKE ENHANCED EVENT. PLAN ON UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AS FAR
NORTH AS M-55...WITH PERHAPS AS MUCH AS TWO IN FAR SOUTHERN GLADWIN
CO...AS WELL AS (THANKS TO ENHANCEMENT) MANISTEE CO. POPS WILL
DWINDLE RAPIDLY NORTH OF M-72 (AT LEAST FOR THE SYNOPTIC PORTION).

850MB TEMPS WILL TUMBLE BACK TOWARD THE MID MINUS TEENS AT THE VERY
END OF THE DAY. THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS WITH THE RETURN OF DEEPER
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE (850-700MB RH AT OR ABOVE 80 PERCENT). LES SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GET GOING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CHIPPEWA
CO...AND PERHAPS BY EARLY EVENING IN FAR NORTHERN LOWER. COULD
PERHAPS BE A STRAY INCH UP BY PARADISE AND ENVIRONS...NOT ENOUGH
TIME FOR MORE THAN THAT.

MAX TEMPS MID 20S TO AROUND 30F...A RELATIVE SCORCHER.

TUE NIGHT...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WILL GRAZE THE NORTH COAST OF
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL ALSO EXTEND
RIDGING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. WNW LAKE EFFECT IN NORTHERN
LOWER...NW IN EASTERN UPPER...WILL PERSIST THRU THE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT. AFTER 06Z...WINDS WILL START TO BACK...DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR ARRIVES (850-700MB RH 25-35 PERCENT)...AND WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS. UNTIL THEN...COULD SEE A LOCALIZED 1-2 INCHES IN THE
GLR-BOYNE FALLS...AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3-4 IN NW CHIPPEWA. MIN
TEMPS IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 20F ALONG THE NW LOWER MI
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...500MB FLOW IN THE REGION BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL...AS
THE TROF OVER THE NE STATES KICKS OUT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE A WEAK BUT FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE ND/CANADA BORDER TO WESTERN SUPERIOR. IN THIS
BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...MOST MODELS BRING A SMALL AREA OF
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT MIDDAY.
COMBINED WITH SHALLOW LINGERING INSTABILITY AND RAPIDLY BACKING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO SW AND EVENTUALLY SSW...A CHANCE FOR SNOW IS IN
ORDER FOR EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOWER. MAX TEMPS
IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...OUR MORE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL HOLD UNTIL
THE WEEKEND...WHEN A BOT MORE TROFFING DEVELOPS IN THE N CENTRAL
STATES. UNFORTUNATELY...THE POLAR VORTEX CIRCULATING OVER CENTRAL
CANADA IS GOING TO PREVENT HEIGHTS FROM RISING DRAMATICALLY...AND
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM MAKING BIG INROADS INTO THE REGION. CONTINUE TO
TEMPER TEMPS IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. IN PARTICULAR...THE NEXT
ARCTIC SHOT MAY ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH TO MAKE FRIDAY THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED...NOT SATURDAY AS HAD BEEN EARLIER THOUGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WX...WED NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVE LULL IN ANY
PRECIP. ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE SOME
LIGHT SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT AS A
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE LAKES REGION. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYER AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY...THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE SOME UNFAVORABLE FETCHES
BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2013

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS
WEST OF US-131 OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING MESO-LOW...IMPACTING MAINLY TVC AND MBL. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE S/SW ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST MON DEC 16 2013

BRIEF BREAK IN THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE A NEW ROUND OF SCA/S HAVE BEEN ISSUED. WINDS GO
WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED TUESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ008-015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB