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000
FXUS63 KAPX 250004
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
704 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

19Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SHARP...POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
EASTERN ONTARIO DOWN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THEN ON DOWN INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. INITIAL BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING HAS
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO GET
A PSEUDO-FIXED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...IN ESSENCE A STANDING WAVE PATTERN OF PRECIP ATTACHED
TO THE TERRAIN WE SEE SO OFTEN IN THE WINTER. BEHIND THE FRONT...A
FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER/POCKET OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRETCHES BACK INTO WISCONSIN ACROSS THE U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
SEVERAL BATCHES OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWING QUICKLY SE THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK MESOLOW
SPIN-UP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. COMBINED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED POCKET OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ROLLING
THROUGH THE REGION...SUSPECT WE SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF BEEFIER SNOW
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...IN ADDITION TO WHAT
IS STILL GOING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY. COUPLED WITH
GUSTIER WINDS/BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS THROUGH THE EVENING... FEEL
COMPELLED TO STRETCH THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CAN PROBABLY TRIM CHIPPEWA COUNTY OUT
OF THE HEADLINE BUT HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES INTO THE
HEADLINE FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

FORECAST CHALLENGES: DETERMINING THE AMOUNT OF LES BASED ON THE ICE
COVERAGE.

(2/25)WEDNESDAY...WINDS START OUT FROM THE NW AND SHIT TO THE N
THROUGH THE DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST WEEK OR TWO. WITH
THE VERY COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES (-20C OR COLDER) AND THE ICE
COVERAGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOST OF N LAKE MICHIGAN, HAVE LEFT
THE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER ISN`T A PROBLEM AS THE RH IN THE LAYER IS IN THE 40S. THE
MOISTURE INCREASES BY 12Z, OVERNIGHT, WHILE THE WINDS REMAIN NORTH.
AMOUNTS LOOK MINOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

(2/26)THURSDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NW, ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. BY THE LOOKS OF THE WINDS THE N BANDS WILL TURN
INTO NW BANDS, BUT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL EXPECT MORE CELLULAR
GLOBS OF SNOW SHOWERS, INSTEAD OF DISCRETE BANDS AS WE USUALLY GET.
THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO PRECLUDE THE SNOW TO GET VERY FAR INLAND.
BY THE AFTERNOON, IT LOOKS LIKE THE RH IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
BEGINS TO FALL OFF AGAIN TO 50% OR LESS. SO WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED
POPS AS WE GO TO VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. OVERNIGHT, THE 500 MB
TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE SFC HIGH
TO THE WEST. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN WEST OVERNIGHT SO WILL ALLOW FOR
THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM LES IN A WNW FLOW REGIME.

(2/27)FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF US, AND LOOKS TO
BE PUMPING OUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AS THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH
FALLS TO AROUND 30% BY 00Z. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND -16C
LESSENING THE INSTABILITY. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE 500 MB
TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THE NIGHT BEFORE,
WILL EXPECT THAT IT WILL DRY OUT THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE SUN
BREAKING OUT WITH THE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SHOULD BE
THE LAST OF THE VERY COLD DAYS AS SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO KICK US INTO
RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FRIDAY NIGHT POSSIBLE. THINGS
WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE FIRST OF TWO EVENTS OF INTEREST ARRIVES
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. SUPPORT FOR HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF US. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING THINGS QUIET UNTIL THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY. CERTAINLY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT
LEE CYCLOGENESIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY COULD BRING
ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW. STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT WILL BE A NICE
REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT ARCTIC AIR MASSES AS WE GET INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...THEN IMPROVING.

COLD FRONT MOVING THRU NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING...WITH
INTENSE SHSN ALONG IT. THIS LINE IS EAST OF TVC/MBL/PLN...AND
THOSE SITES HAVE LIKELY ALREADY SEEN THEIR WORST CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR WILL STILL OCCUR AT TIMES THERE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. APN WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS SHORTLY. AIRMASS WILL START TO DRY OUT SHORTLY...NOT
ENOUGH OF CUT OFF LAKE EFFECT SHSN IN THE TVC/MBL AREA...BUT
STILL EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE AND RAPID
IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE. MBL/TVC WILL HAVE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
WEDNESDAY...PLN/APN WILL BE VFR.

GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ015>023-025>028-031>033.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ