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000
FXUS63 KAPX 161738
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
138 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION
TODAY...PROVIDING CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPERATURES BUT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK...OUT
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH OUR AREA INTO MIDWEEK...GIVING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. FLAT OUT
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS POINT WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY CU
DEVELOPEMENT. BELOW ZERO SFC DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE WILL NOT GET
ANY. SO...HAVE COMPLETELY REMOVED ANY HINT OF CLOUDS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO GET TO THE TEENS (ANJ AT 8F AS OF 1 PM).
BUT JUST GETTING TO SOLAR NOON WITH >800 W/M2 OF SOLAR RADIATION
OUT THERE WHICH SHOULD GET EVERYONE INTO THE TEENS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. EVEN SO...SOME RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS ARE IN JEOPARDY.

HERE IS A SAMPLING OF RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY:

SAULT SAINT MARIE...12F
ALPENA..............18F
HOUGHTON LAKE.......23F
GAYLORD (COOP)......16F
TRAVERSE CITY (TVC).12F


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

1036 MB BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEDGE OF VERY DRY AIR SETTLING
IN ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST REGION THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. STILL
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FLOWING OFF LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON. BUT UNFAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW SHIELDING NRN
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FOR THE MOMENT ALTHOUGH NE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW IS STARTING TO PUSH SOME LAKE STREAMERS
INTO THE EXTREME NE LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREA FROM PRESQUE
ISLE DOWN THROUGH OSCODA INTO SAGINAW BAY.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS
A LITTLE THIS MORNING FOR THOSE AFOREMENTIONED NE LOWER MICHIGAN
AREAS...AND I WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MINOR DEVELOPMENT/
EXPANSION OF CU/STCU ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH HEATING OF THE
DAY. BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR NOW ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN (SEE THIS MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDING)
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. SO EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OUT
THERE. IT WILL LOOK GREAT...BUT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS
FOR HIGHS. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...AND WITH THE
SUN...IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE BETTER OUT THERE TODAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT SUN
MAR 16 2014

DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH IS OVERTAKING ANY OVERLAKE
INSTABILITY. LAKE CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST ALL ERODED. LOTS OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...COLD WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND GREAT SUNSHINE...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLIDING EASTWARD...MORE INTO QUEBEC EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE/DEEP DRY
AIR NOSING IN FROM MN/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES WITH H8 TEMPS -17C TO -22C..BUT IS ALSO WEAKENING A LITTLE
AS WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO LET UP A LITTLE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU OVER
ICE AND LAND YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD DOWNWIND OF
THE OPEN WATER. WITH LOSS OF HEATING YESTERDAY...CLOUDS HAVE
TRANSITIONED BACK TO LAKE DOMINATED BANDS. THE MORE PREVALENT ONE
WAS SEEN ACROSS ROGERS CITY...AND WAS LIKELY CONNECTED WITH AN MORE
INTERESTING BAND THAT WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP FROM LESS OPEN WATER
ACROSS FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALL THE WAY TO THE JUST WEST OF THE
PARADISE AREA. THAT CONNECTION WILL BE LOST AS WINDS ARE VEERING
NORTH WHILE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING INCREASE. UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA AND THE PAC NW...RIDGING IS GETTING SQUASHED BY INCOMING
UPPER TROUGHING. INITIAL ENERGY IS EJECTING OUT OF THIS TROUGH AND
INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH SPOTTY PRECIP MOVING INTO
SASKATCHEWAN.

WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

NOT MUCH. LIKELY SOME CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS NE LOWER
THIS MORNING FROM MORE OPEN EXPANSE OF WATER ACROSS FAR NRN LAKE
HURON. OTHERWISE...THE DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH THESE
CLOUDS BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR
ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. THERE WILL BE SOME THIN CIRRUS STILL ACROSS THE
M-55 CORRIDOR...BUT THIS WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL RAPIDLY...AND FAR. THE COLDEST LOW LYING AREAS WILL SEE 30+
DIURNAL SWINGS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO. LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO GET COLD WITH READINGS IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. PROBABLY SOME THIN CIRRUS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT A
NON-FACTOR IN AFFECTING TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

A LITTLE GOOD NEWS FOR YOU READERS OUT THERE: THE COMING WORK WEEK
LOOKS TO FEATURE AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO
MIDWEEK. BUT UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS ALSO SOME BAD NEWS AS THAT
WARMUP WILL COME AT THE EXPENSE OF A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARD TUE NIGHT/WED...WHICH STANDS AN
INCREASING CHANCE AT PROVIDING A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TO ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS TALKED ABOUT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN HAS BRIEFLY REVERTED TO ITS
SEMI-PERMANENT STATE OF THE WINTER...FEATURING BUILDING WEST COAST
HEIGHTS AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CONUS. THAT WESTERN BUILD-UP OF HEIGHTS IS IN ADVANCE OF A MODEST
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WITH THAT ENERGY EXPECTED
TO CRASH ASHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS REMAINS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR
CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS...WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION
OF SUCH A SETUP BACKED UP BY GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGESTING SAID LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY WORK TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
INTO MIDWEEK. OF COURSE...THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL
BE INVOLVED...BUT TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE STRONGLY SUGGESTED A
TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES...PLACING NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN A
RATHER CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

MORE ON THAT IN A MINUTE...BUT FIRST...THE START OF THE WORK WEEK
DOESN`T LOOK TOO BAD...AS RATHER EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS
FROM EASTERN ONTARIO MONDAY INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE ON
THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH TIME. TREMENDOUS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
FLEX ITS MUSCLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUPPORTING THE NOTION OF A
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST DESPITE INCREASING BOUTS OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS WARM ADVECTION ASCENT ALOFT RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE OVER THE PLAINS. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
DEEPER SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION ROLLS IN ALOFT...BUT SHOULDN`T BE A
BIG DEAL...WITH NO FORESEEN FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT EITHER BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING LAYS OUT OVER
THE LOWER LAKES. TEMPS SHOULD GET A BOOST VIA STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW...WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S MONDAY AND LIKELY
BUMPING WELL INTO THE 30S AND PERHAPS LOWER 40S TUESDAY...THOUGH DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THICKER CLOUD COVER HAMPERING THOSE
READINGS UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE REAL FUN LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE PLAINS UPPER WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE LIFTING THROUGH
THE WESTERN LAKES. THAT TRACK HAS SOME PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
GUIDANCE NOW...BUT OF COURSE WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING
DAYS. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE BASIC EXPECTED SETUP WOULD SUPPORT A
ROUND OF PRECIP ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRY SLOTTING A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY SOMETIME LATER WEDNESDAY...WITH
A BRIEF ROUND OF WRAP-AROUND/DEFORMATION DRIVEN PRECIP POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE TRIES TO CLOSE
OFF AN SLOWS DOWN A BIT. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...
THIS IS REALLY STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A BRIEF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN
TO RAIN SCENARIO AS ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TUESDAY NIGHT IS
ELIMINATED BY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE A PRONOUNCED WARM
NOSE RACES NORTH THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. A QUICK SHOT OF
COLD ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WOULD EASILY
CHANCE THE PRECIP BACK TO SNOW...WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWS AND WINDY CONDITIONS LEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. ONE THING OF NOTE IS
THAT ROAD TEMPS ARE STILL COLD...AND WOULD SUSPECT WE COULD SEE OUR
USUAL MISCHIEF OF MICRO-SCALE COOLED ROAD SURFACES NEAR THE GROUND
SUPPLYING SOME VERY SLICK CONDITIONS LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
DESPITE AIR TEMPS THAT WILL LIKELY RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. OF
COURSE...THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT ALL OF THE
DETAILS...BUT A MENTION IN THE HWO AND WEB GRAPHICS WILL CONTINUE.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE TRICKY...BUT GUT FEELING IS READINGS COULD
BLAST THROUGH THE 40S FOR A TIME...PARTICULARLY IF THE GFS/GEM/GFS
ENSEMBLE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
VERIFIES...PLACING ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN DEEPER IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A BRIEF DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY NOW APPEARS SUSPECT
WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE REGION. TIMING AND
PLACEMENT IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE BUT LOWER CHANCE POPS PROBABLY
WARRANTED...WITH RAIN OR SNOW BOTH POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THERMAL
PROGS AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER THAT...STARTING TO SEE SOME
HINTS THAT WE WILL GET BACK INTO ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPPER TROUGHING/
COLDER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE WEEKEND...BUT PROBABLY DRY AS THE
FAMILIAR LOW LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN AGAIN SETS UP FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

SOLID VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10
KNOTS) THIS AFTERNOON WITH FLAT OUT CALM WINDS TONIGHT. SCT MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING
SE WINDS. BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LEAST THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM