Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 250134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
934 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Issued at 934 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Ill defined cold front continues to sag down through Northern Lower
Michigan this evening while weak-ish short wave trough is moving
through the Upper Peninsula. Combined with a modest moisture/instability
axis folding down through northern Michigan along and ahead of the
front has been enough to push some decent showers into the CWA,
particularly for the northern sections where better QG-ascent
resides. Showers are really struggling to get into our S/E
counties deeper into the very dry airmass in the eastern lakes

Rest of tonight, cold front will essentially wash out across lower
Michigan tonight while surface high pressure nudges down into the
northern Great Lakes region toward morning. Ongoing showers will
eventually fizzle and push off to the east within the next few
hours. But, there are a few more showers/storms upstream in
Central Upper Michigan/NE Wisconsin that we will have to keep an
eye on. HRRR and NAM12 guidance suggests this activity will fizzle
long before reaching us. But will see. For now, will maintain the
idea of diminishing/ending POPS overnight.

Otherwise, have added patchy to areas of fog to the forecast
across Eastern Upper Michigan and into the tip of the mitt where
we have seen some rainfall in the last few hours, and slightly
cooler air will sag into the region.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

High impact weather potential: Red flag warning into early evening.
Non-severe thunderstorm concerns through the period.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Definitely a mid-summer feel to
the weather this afternoon...with widespread readings in the 80s
(away from the big waters of course)...with Alpena airport even
reaching 90 degrees! Slowly ramping up waa between approaching
western lakes cool front and departing surface high the culprit
behind such unseasonably warm temperatures. Unfortunately...moisture
advection much slower to kick in, particularly across northern lower
Michigan, which has resulted in another round of extremely low
relative humidity. Combine that with those warm temperatures and
increasingly gusty winds, and extreme fire danger is the result.
Moisture advection a touch more aggressive north of the big bridge,
with just deep enough moisture and forcing to even result in some
light shower development well west of interstate 75 in the last
couple hours. Large scale pattern remains slowly progressive,
allowing that upstream front to gradually push through and south of
the area tonight and Wednesday. The result will be an end to our
lengthly stretch of fire weather concerns tonight, and at least the
potential for some locations to receive some much needed rainfall.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Fire weather parameters
into early this evening. Addressing spatial and temporal
resolution of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.

Details: First order of business remains Fire Weather, with extreme
fire weather conditions expected to continue for the next several
hours across much of northern lower Michigan. Improvement will be
gradual as low level moisture slowly increases, and combined with
falling temperatures this evening, should end fire weather concerns
early this evening. Please see ongoing Red Flag Warning for further

Now...on to that second order of business...addressing shower and
thunderstorm potential: As mentioned...moisture advection will
continue (albeit very slowly south of the bridge) as upstream cool
front slides southeast into the region. Problem is moisture never
becomes that impressive, and current mid level forcing tied to
surface front (cause for rather widespread showers and storms across
western upper Michigan) slowly detaches as surface front approaches
our area...with mid level heights actually starting to rebound by
morning. Guidance trends over the last day or so have been
noticeably drier with frontal passage tonight/early Wednesday, which
is well supported by lack of deeper moisture advection and
anticipated loss of deeper dynamics. Per guidance signatures and
extrapolated movement of upstream moisture plume and radar
trends...feel "best" bet for showers will occur this evening, and
especially for areas north of the bridge. Will need to watch
potential for more organized upstream convective development this
evening, which per low and mid level wind fields, would tend to
propagate east southeast toward northern lower Michigan.
Unfortunately, what does form (if it forms at all) will quickly run
into a very hostile environment across northern Lake Michigan,
resulting in quick downward trend to both intensity and areal
coverage. So, in a nutshell, just not expecting any significant
widespread rains, and a very real possibility much of the area
south of the bridge may see little rain at all. Lack of
instability and stronger winds will keep the thunder threat
minimal, with only a few isolated cells capable of producing brief
non-severe gusty winds and small hail. What shower there are will
end from north to south later tonight as weak ridge of high
pressure builds in behind the passing front.

Much like tonight, overwhelming trend is for a much less aggressive
return to any rain threat Wednesday as front hangs up south of our
area. Afternoon moisture return does bring at least the threat for a
few showers/storms, particularly south of M-72. Not a big deal for
sure, with the threat for better rain potential holding off until
Wednesday night. A touch "cooler" tomorrow, but readings will still
be several degrees above normal for the last week of May.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Wednesday night through Friday...

Pattern synopsis/Expected evolution: Ridging still evident over the
center of the country this afternoon with several waves of energy
traversing through the upper-level flow. This will set the stage for
a pattern shift across much of the CONUS with several more waves
expected to provide occasional precip chances for the remainder of
the week.

Forecast challenges:  PoPs/QPF/precip timing Wednesday night through
Friday. Small severe threat for Thursday/Friday?

Details: By Wednesday night...vertically stacked low pressure is
centered over North Dakota with a warm front extending through
central MN, central WI, and Lower MI. Expecting an isentropically
driven cluster of showers and a few thunderstorms to arrive from
southwest to northeast during the overnight hours. All indications
suggest that the most widespread precip should taper by Thursday

A potentially active, but less confident remainder of the period
continues at this juncture. With still some disagreement to warm
frontal positioning come Thursday and Friday, if frontal positioning
can make it as far north as the bridge/eastern Upper, thermodynamic/
kinematic parameters would certainly improve over portions of the
area. Guidance continues to prog MLCAPE values approaching 1500-2000
J/kg, 0-6 km bulk shear 35-45 kts, and pockets of low level lapse
rates > 7 C/km. While parameters would suggest that we`d have to be
at least aware of a scattered strong to severe thunderstorm threat,
virtually non-existent synoptic forcing may inhibit much of any
precip development Thursday afternoon. One source of lift that`s
certainly a possibility with the expected warm temperatures would be
inland-moving lake breezes.  Overall, low confidence exists as to
the development and extent of precip Thursday afternoon, but if
storms are able to develop, they`ll warrant monitoring.

A similar look and feel to the day Friday with another mild and
potentially active day, especially during the afternoon/evening
hours. The severe weather parameters mentioned above are expected to
diminish somewhat with less CAPE and shear, but still capable of
producing a few scattered strong to severe storms, once again if
precip is able to develop. Slightly better forcing is expected to
arrive during the afternoon hours as a mid-level shortwave is
expected to trek from southern WI/northern IL into northern MI.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
period, ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s both Thursday and
Friday. Unseasonably mild overnight lows are expected with temps 10-
15 degrees above normal, ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.


Extended (Friday night through Tuesday)...

The pattern remains unsettled through the extended. Ample moisture
and instability will lead to continued convection Saturday and
Sunday...with Friday night through Saturday being the most
susceptible to appreciable rainfall. With the warm and juicy
atmosphere in place...some decent downpours will accompany any
thunderstorms. Although still not out of the woods...guidance trends
slightly less active Monday and Tuesday. Blended solutions keep
chance pops going both days and there`s no reason to
disagree...though many may pass through these days rain free.
Temperatures will continue to be well above normal through the



.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

...Spotty showers this evening...

Ill defined cold front sagging down through northern lower
Michigan has pushed a batch of showers through the northern
reaches of the state. Batch of showers will slip on through over
the next 4 hours or so, with PLN standing the best shot of getting
measurable rain. There has been some thunder, although much of
that has diminished.

By late evening and overnight, showers will end with slightly
cooler air sagging into the region. This may lead to a brief
period of MVFR-IFR stratus/fog overnight, particularly at PLN and
into the upper peninsula where there has been some rain.

For Wednesday, high pressure regains control of northern
Michigan`sweather with a return to VFR everywhere.


Issued at 324 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Marginally gusty southwest winds this afternoon will become
light and variable overnight as a weak cool front drops through the
region. Generally light winds look to continue right through the
remainder of the week within a very stable over-water environment.
Chance for a few showers and thunderstorms this evening, with a much
longer duration threat for showers and thunderstorms beginning
Wednesday night lasting through the Holiday weekend.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Gillen
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