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000
FXUS63 KAPX 181748
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
148 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
BRINGING WITH IT PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL INITIATE A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...COMPLETE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

HAVE PROGRESSIVELY UPDATED CLOUD FORECAST LAST SEVERAL HOURS TO
MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT ONGOING/PERSISTENT CU FIELD OVER N CENTRAL
LOWER MI. SUBTLE TERRAIN INFLUENCES...BROAD LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE...AND A BIT MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THE LIKELY CULPRITS. STILL ONLY RESULTING IN
A PARTLY VS MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TARGET.

ATTENTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN TO FROST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW MID
JUNE NORMALS. MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
BUT WITH A QUICK FLARE-UP OF A FEW CU/SC OVER INTERIOR N CENTRAL
AND NE LOWER. MORNING APX OBSERVED AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS AFTERNOON CU SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED/PATCHY - INTERFERING
LITTLE WITH A MAINLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH FULL SUN...WILL ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWNWARD BY A
DEGREE OR TWO. APX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A RATHER COOLISH 850 MB TEMP
OF +5C -- AND LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH AND BROKEN UP...AS THE DRIER AIR HAS
WORKED ITS WAY THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES IN THE
CLEARING HAVE DIPPED DOWN CLOSE TO THE DEW POINTS AND SOME PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. CURRENT
FORECAST IS DOING WELL...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED WELL SOUTH OF NRN
MICHIGAN...AS IT IS DRAPED ACROSS IOWA...NRN IL AND INDIANA. WHILE
THERE WAS SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING WELL BACK
TO THE NORTH...AND ACROSS BASICALLY M-72 SOUTH (CLOUDS)...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS SINKING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO. THIS WAS USHERING IN
DRIER AIR...BUT AT A SLOW PACE...AS WINDS WERE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH 8-10KFT OUT OF THE N/NE. ALSO...NOCTURNAL COOLING ON TOP
OF THESE CLOUDS WERE INHIBITING STRONGER DRYING...SERVING TO
EXPAND THE CLOUDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIPS IN OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DRYING FLOW OUT OF THE N/NE WILL
DEEPEN...AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING TOO...ENOUGH FOR LAKE BREEZES
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TO BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. LATER DAY LAKE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP FROM THE STRAITS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT CUMULUS WILL RESIDE
IN INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER AND ACROSS NW LOWER. DIMINISHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CUMULUS AT BAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS GTV BAY WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE "GREATEST".

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...OUTSIDE OF MAYBE SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S. THE LOW LYING/TYPICALLY COLDER LOCALES WILL FEEL
TEMPS FALL DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...AND POCKETS OF FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE. DIURNAL SWINGS OF 30-35 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

EVIDENCE ON THE INCREASE THAT NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES HEADING THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
FORCING SOME DEGREE OF UPSTREAM PACIFIC PROGRESSION. THIS...IN
TURN...ALLOWS PERSISTENT WESTERN NOAM RIDGING TO BUMP EAST WITH
TIME...SET TO SPREAD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MULTI-MONTH PERSISTENT EAST CANADA TROUGHING
WILL NO DOUBT HAVE PLENTY TO SAY ON JUST HOW AMPLIFIED THIS RIDGING
BECOMES...AND THUS HOW HIGH THE THERMOMETERS REACH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES. CURRENT MCS LADEN STORM TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND CORN BELT SHOULD BUMP NORTH AS ABOVE OCCURS...JUST
PERHAPS TEMPORARILY LAYING ITS FOUNDATION ACROSS OUR AREA HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY TIME WILL TELL...OF
COURSE...AND SIMPLE TENACITY OF CURRENT PATTERN DOES GIVE ONE PLENTY
OF PAUSE WITH CURRENT MODEL DEPICTIONS. THAT SAID...GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED RATHER STEADFAST ON SUCH CHANGES...AND THIS FORECAST WILL
REMAIN LARGELY TRENDED TOWARDS THIS WARMER...AND PERHAPS...WETTER
LATE PERIOD SCENARIO. FORECAST CONCERNS LARGELY CENTERED ON
ABOVE...LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

PERIOD STARTS OUT QUIET ENOUGH...WITH SLOW MOVING OVERHEAD HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LATE IN THE
DAY THURSDAY. ATTENDANT DRY AIRMASS LOOKS PRETTY FORMIDABLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP DRY AIR SEEN THROUGH
MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS. NORTHWEST LAKES MOISTURE RETURN STARTS TO
RAMP UP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS HIGH RETREATS. THIS
MOISTURE...INTERACTING WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT DROPPING
DOWN BACKSIDE OF CANADIAN TROUGHING...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THURSDAY WITH RATHER PLEASANT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD AS UPSTREAM RIDGING PUSHES EAST. STILL
REASONABLE SUPPORT WITH LATEST PROGS FOR A DECENT SURGE OF MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER. GOING TO BE INTERESTING ON JUST HOW FAR
NORTH MAIN WARM FRONT CAN MAKE IT...WITH SOME CONCERN COOL LAKE
WATERS...POSSIBLE COOLING AFFECT FROM SHOWERS/STORMS...AND HIGH
PRESSURE SLIPPING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA STALLING IT SOMEWHERE
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND (SEE 12Z ECMWF). PLENTY OF TIME TO
SORT ALL THIS OUT...AND IN ABSOLUTELY NO HURRY TO DEVIATE FROM
INHERITED FORECAST FEATURING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S (EASTERN UPPER)
AND 80S (NORTHERN LOWER) FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK. WOULD EXPECT SOUTH DISPLACED CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE CORRIDOR
TO PRESS NORTH WITH TIME AS BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEEP MOISTURE PLUME DO THE
SAME. OF COURSE...SIMPLY NO WAY TO ACCURATELY FORECAST EXACT TIMING
OF SUCH...WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE TRENDS THEMSELVES PLAYING HAVOC
ON THESE DETAILS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STRONGEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS INDIVIDUAL STORM
COMPLEXES AND SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PREVENT A GOOD MOISTURE
FEED THIS FAR NORTH (A VERY TYPICAL OCCURRENCE FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN). FOR NOW...WILL SIMPLY USE A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH FOR
RAIN POTENTIAL...KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR WEATHER. SCATTERED CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THEREAFTER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WED WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE/LAKE BREEZES BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LAKE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LATE DAY LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LOWER...AFTER NE
WINDS STOP GUSTING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO LAKE BREEZES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SW WINDS BECOME COMMON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY STICKS AROUND FOR AWHILE. WHILE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDS AND
WAVES AT THIS POINT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BS
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...SD