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000
FXUS63 KAPX 221528 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1128 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

COLD AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TODAY...BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. A FEW FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND HIGHER PRESSURE SETTLES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. THE SYSTEM COLD
FRONT DRIVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WITH SLOWLY SHRINKING LLEVEL MOIST LAYER...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING NOW IS TAKING THE FORM OF DRIZZLE...WITH A
FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN. WILL TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE WORDING AND
CONTINUE IT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGESTING
LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE 32F IN GLR /SAME AT THE OFFICE/...THERE IS NO FREEZING
OF THIS PRECIP...SO OTHER THAN THE RAW FEEL...NO WEATHER IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE TO CLOUD COVER...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED GOING HIGHS ABOUT 3-4F AS WE AREN/T GOING TO MOVE MUCH IN
THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS STILL IS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT LAV GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES
TO BUILD TOWARDS THE GROUND...WITH REPORTS OF FOG NOW OVER THE TIP
OF THE MITT INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER. HAVE ADDED FOG WORDING
TO CAPTURE THIS TREND THROUGH THE MORNING. SLOW DRYING TREND
SHOULD BRING THIS TO AN END BY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
MORE PERSISTENT.

NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

...COLD AND GUSTY RETURNS...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE CROSSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SAGINAW BAY. THE LAST OF
THE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THIS AREA...WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS ALREADY SETTLED IN ACROSS
NRN MICHIGAN. THESE WINDS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
OUT CLOUDS/INFLUX OF DRIER AIR. UPSTREAM...DIVING SE INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR...ARE LOW LEVEL STRATO CUMULUS (TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION)
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD POOL OF H8 AIR WITH TEMPERATURES OF
-8C. FROM MN DOWN THROUGH THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY...THERE WAS EVEN
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE...AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. OH...AND JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...THERE WERE FLURRIES IN
SOUTHERN AREAS OF ONTARIO...THAT WERE PRIMARILY TIED TO SFC LOW
PRESSURE/CONVERGENCE EARLIER LAST EVENING AND YESTERDAY. WE...WILL
NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (SFC-850MB) WILL BE STEEP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
COLD POOL WILL EXIT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND
HIGHER PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK.

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

BAND OF MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PUSH THROUGH NRN LOWER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING MUCH OF NRN
LOWER THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE TIED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. CAN
FORESEE SOME FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES FALLING OUT LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 40S/LOWER HALF OF THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS WITH UPPER HALF OF THE 40S IN DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER. WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TOPPING 30
MPH...IT WILL BE A COLD AND BRISK DAY OUT THE FOR SURE. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME FEWER HEADING THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SKIES
EVENTUALLY BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS DYING OFF WITH TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

OVERVIEW...A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING, WILL MOVE ON BY MID WEEK, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO
BRIEFLY WARM UP THE GREAT LAKES, BEFORE THE NEXT SHOT OF COOL,
PACIFIC AIR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND.

(4/23)WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TO THE NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE
IN A BASE OF A HUDSON BAY HIGH, THAT IS GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE
EXITING SFC LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND THEN NEXT SYSTEM OUT IN THE
PLAINS. WHAT IT MEANS IS THAT THERE WILL BE 24 HOURS OF VERY DRY
WEATHER. THIS WOULD BE A BIT OF A FIRE HAZARD DAY, IF IT WEREN`T FOR
THE TEMPERATURES. WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C, THIS WILL
MIXED DOWN IN THE SUN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THEN THE TEMPERATURES
WILL RADIATE AS THE WINDS DECOUPLE AND WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
FROST WILL BE AROUND AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

(4/24)THURSDAY...THIS DAY IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK. AS THE HUDSON
BAY HIGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION TO THE NORTH, THE MODELS TRY AND
FORCE THE SOUTHERN PART OF IT TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION MOST OF THE MORNING. NOT SURE THAT I EVEN
BUY THE ECMWF WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY
18Z. SO LOWERED THE POPS A BIT. THE GFS IS OVER DONE WITH THE VERY
DRY 850 MB LEVEL, SIMILAR TO THE ECWMF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD E UPPER, AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH
WISCONSIN AND THE WARM FRONT WOULD FOCUS THE RAIN TOWARD E UPPER.
THEN OVERNIGHT, WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE RAIN, ALBEIT LIGHT, WILL
MOVE THROUGH.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...(4/25)FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE FORECAST AREA, RAIN LOOKS TO LET
UP, AT LEAST IN N LOWER AS THE MAIN FOCUS IS NORTH WITH THE 500 MB
TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
COLDER AIR. OVERNIGHT, THE COLDER AIR WILL MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MORNING. (4/26)SATURDAY...MAYBE A MIX OF SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES AS THE SYSTEM PULLS THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
(4/27)SUNDAY...COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
HIGH (HUDSON BAY) THINK THAT THE GFS IS TOO FAST WITH PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS ENCROACHING ON THE STATE. (4/28)MONDAY...CONTINUES DRY
DAY, BUT A LITTLE WARMER AS THE HUDSON BAY HIGH HOLDS AND THE
SUNSHINE THAT WOULD BE EXPECTED SHOULD BEGIN TO MODIFY THE AIR
MASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

MVFR CIGS TO LOW END VFR HAVE SWEPT INTO NW LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
WILL OVER TAKE THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT MVFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE
SLOWLY LIFTING OVERALL. SOME HOLES DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE STUCK UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION.
BKN-OVC MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ALL DUE IN PART
TO CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. BETTER MOISTURE AND END TO THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THIS CLOUD LAYER EXITS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SKIES
BECOMING SCT-SKC.

NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...REACHING 25 TO 30 KNOTS...AND REMAINING A
BIT STIFF AND GUSTY INTO THE EVENING...BUT THINGS WILL BE CALMING
DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD