Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 090253
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
953 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

KIND OF A CHAOTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE 1000
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. APX RADAR
SHOWED THAT ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR BUT THAT RETURNS
WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
MEANWHILE...STILL NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO GET THE GREAT LAKES
INVOLVED WITH ANY ENHANCEMENT (APX 09/00Z 850 MB TEMPERATURE -6.5
C)...THOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THAT LAKE ANYWAYS.
OVERALL...EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER TWO INCHES (HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKES).
REMAINING MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND
MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR. VSBYS WILL BE THE SAME AS CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT
TIMES AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR


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