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000
FXUS63 KAPX 131408
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

WE WILL CONTINUE THE SEE SAW WEATHER PATTERN...AS WE HAVE A SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. SO...WHILE TODAY PRODUCES
QUIET...COOL CONDITIONS...EXPECT WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY WHEN THE
NEXT CLIPPER BEGINS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN. OF COURSE...ONCE
THAT SYSTEM IS THROUGH...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER...WILL BEGIN DROP THROUGH THE STATE AND COOL US DOWN AGAIN
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

NO BIG CHANGES AT THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES ARE STEADILY REBOUNDING
AFTER THE FRIGID START. THERE IS DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY
ON INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE REAL QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WILL BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
COLUMN MOISTENS UP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THIS BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM
ONLY ONE SPOT REPORTING ANY LIGHT SNOW (ISQ). SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DEFINITELY WILL SEE
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WILL
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE AROUND 20 NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF LAKE CLOUDS DOWN AN OPEN EXPANSE OF
LAKE HURON WATER NEAR THE OSCODA COASTLINE FOR SOME LAKE STRATO
CU. TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN AS FAR AS THOUGHT...BUT ITS STILL QUITE
COLD WITH READINGS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST ALL OF
NRN LOWER...BUT MUCH COLDER PELLSTON NORTHWARD...IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS BELOW ZERO. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

...LITTLE BIT OF SNOW AND POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE.

CONFIDENCE:

AVERAGE FOR SEEING SNOW...HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL AS POSSIBLE EVENING LAKE
HELP INTO FAR WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EVOLUTION:

IT`S COLD OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE SHARP UPPER TROUGHING
IS PASSING BY WITH SHALLOW RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
IN. WINDS ARE WEAKENING AND TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO DROP OFF
MORE QUICKLY. READINGS WERE IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS MOST
EVERYWHERE. UPSTREAM...THERE IS A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE
DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS OUT AHEAD
OF BRITISH COLUMBIA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS FAST...AND THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT
EAST...WHILE THE RIDGING SETTLES IN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. BY
LATE TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL SHOVE THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN...WHILE ALSO DRAGGING A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND MAYBE FAR WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CUT OFF ANY DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
WARM FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
TRAJECTORIES BRING IN SFC TDS AROUND 30F TOWARD US (WHILE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S.

WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL "WARM" QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH GOOD
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SW WINDS...WHICH WILL GUST UP TO 15 TO 25
MPH...HELPING TEMPERATURES GET INTO THE 20S. SKIES WILL BE
INCREASING IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE ARE SOME LIKELY LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE SAULT TOWARD AND
DURING THE EVENING...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH. LOW
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...DECREASING IN CHANCE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THEY
REMAIN IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

OVERVIEW...LOOKING AT THE TRENDS ON THE 500 MB HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM AT
45N LATITUDE, THE RIDGE NEAR 120W IS HAS HALTED FOR THE TIME BEING
WITH A HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK LOOKING TO FORM FOR A LITTLE BIT.
ALTHOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE RIDGE AT 120W LOOKS SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED ALONG THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
ONSET TO THE SPLIT FLOW THAT WPC HAS BEEN TALKING ABOUT. IN THE
MEANTIME, THE 500 MB LOW IN NORTHERN QUEBEC HAS INCHED TO THE WEST A
LITTLE MORE INTO HUDSON BAY. SO THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

(3/14)FRIDAY...THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
QUEBEC(GFS) OR SE INTO GEORGIAN BAY (ECMWF). EITHER WAY IT LOOKS
LIKE, BASED THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPERATURES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS HAVE SOME
WARM AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE PROFILES, ESPECIALLY IN NE
LOWER, AND WITH SFC TEMPERATURES AS NOTED, THERE WILL BE A TIME OF
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER, AS THE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THE RAIN OR MIX WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW BY 00Z.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
PUSH FARTHER SOUTH, AND THE MAGIC -12C LINE CROSSES INTO THE NW
LOWER BY 12Z. SO GRADUALLY, AS THE SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST,
LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN TO FORM WITH THE OPEN WATER AROUND AFTER THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES RECENTLY. LOOKING AT THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH,
THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO DROP (RH<50%), SO THE LES WILL BE LIMITED,
NOT TO MENTION THE LIMITED FETCH OVER THE WATER.

(3/15)SATURDAY...COLDER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
-15C (ECMWF) AND -20C (GFS) IN N LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z. VERY DRY AIR
IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THE N TO NNW FLOW (850-700 MB LAYER RH< 30%)
SO WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY. OVERNIGHT, THE SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE DRY AIR AT 850 MB (RH<20%)
WILL STOP ALL THE PRECIPITATION.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...(3/16)SUNDAY...HOWEVER, WITH
THE SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE DRY AIR STAYS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE DAY. SO WILL EXPECT SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER,
OVERNIGHT, THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO KNOCK ON THE DOOR OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
(3/17)MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST, THE THE NEXT SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO PRODUCE CLOUDS ON THE
ECMWF AND SNOW ON THE GFS. SO WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
FOR THE NIGHT AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN E UPPER. I STILL THINK THAT
THE ECMWF IS ONTO SOMETHING WITH THE 500 MB LOW LIFTING OUT OF
QUEBEC, SO THAT THE JET WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH. THIS WOULD DEVELOP
THE SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE GFS IDEA.
(3/18)TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IDEA WINS OUT ON MONDAY
NIGHT, AND I`M BETTING ON THE ECMWF, WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CHANCE
POPS IN E UPPER AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO KEEP THE JET SUPPRESSED AND N LOWER AND E UPPER DRY. BECAUSE IT
IS STILL EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, WILL HAVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREA. (3/19)WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. THE ECMWF HAS NOTHING AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY
(850 MB RH<30%) SO IF THIS SFC HIGH IS THAT DRY IT WILL PROBABLY BE
A CLOUDY DAY (700-500 MB LAYER RH>60%).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.,,WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS TURNING MILDLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SW TODAY (~20 KTS)...IN
ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WORKS INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (WHICH IS NOT SEEN ANYWHERE ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS) UP
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DATA SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT
SNOWS MAY SCRAPE PELLSTON (MAYBE AS FAR SOUTH AS TVC?)...WITH MILD
SIGNALS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY THIS EVENING THROUGH JUST PAST
MIDNIGHT. LACK OF UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO BEING BLOCKED OFF LEAD TO A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL BRING IN MVFR CIGS...AT THE
WORST RIGHT NOW UNLESS THERE IS MORE EVIDENCE OF DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD