Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 250034
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
834 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Updated the forecast low temperatures for the night. Good mixing
today with light/calm winds tonight under high pressure to likely
result in a 30+ diurnal swing. Lowered temperatures 7-8 degrees
in low lying areas. Expect a rather chilly morning for some of
these locales, with low to mid 40s. Some coastal areas holding in
the lower 50s, especially Lake Michigan where winds do kick up
some out of the SW. Clear skies. Just a few strands of cirrus.

Winds/waves have also died down to end the beach hazard for
potential rip currents.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...Clear and quiet tonight...sunny and warmer on Tuesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Strong high pressure continues to build
into the Western Great Lakes region this afternoon in the wake of
low pressure moving toward New England. Lingering weak cyclonic
flow...weak diurnal instability and residual low level moisture
continue to produce scattered CU across mainly the SE half of our
CWA. This cloud cover will quickly dissipate with the approach of
sunset and loss of diurnal heating...leaving clear skies for
tonight. Gusty NE winds will quickly diminish this evening as well
as daytime mixing comes to a close and the upstream high pressure
center drifts overhead.

Expect a cool night across the Northwoods...with overnight lows
mainly in the lower 50s. Tuesday looks sunny and warmer...with
afternoon highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...Showers and storms return late Tuesday night into Wednesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunderstorms possible late Tuesday
night through Wednesday night.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Southerly return flow will develop
Tuesday night across northern Michigan as high pressure departs. A
veering 30-40 knot low level jet will lead to increasing moisture
advection Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold
front dropping southeast through the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a
series of weak mid-level vort maxes will ripple across northern MI
ahead of the main shortwave trough and aforementioned front, which
will move through our neck of the woods Wednesday night. These
features will bring the next round of showers and thunderstorms to
the region late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. High pressure
and drier air will gradually filter into the region on Thursday,
with a few showers possibly lingering through the morning hours over
northern Lower.

A period of warm air advection Tuesday night through Wednesday will
bump high temperatures over much of northern Lower into the low 80s,
while the Tip of the Mitt and eastern Upper, with more extensive
cloud cover, will stay in the 70s. Thursday`s highs will be in the
mid to upper 70s.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Thunderstorm potential late Tuesday
night through Wednesday night and the possibility of any severe
storms remain the primary forecast concerns. Instability still
looking rather limited for northern Michigan and will be much higher
over southern Wisconsin. Looking like fairly extensive cloud cover
ahead of the front on Wednesday, limiting MLCAPEs over northern MI
to around 500 J/kg or less. There will probably be a lull in
thunderstorm activity Wednesday morning after daybreak and before
diurnal instability can build up to support afternoon/evening storm
activity. Despite the meager instability, deep layer shear is still
looking favorable over our area, especially across eastern Upper.
Bulk shear vectors from 0-6km have a weak orthogonal component to
the front, so expecting quasi-linear clusters of showers and storms
along the front. Forecast soundings continue to show nice low-level
clockwise curvature favorable for some better organized storms. But
that favorable shear won`t mean much if meager instability limits
storm development/intensity. SPC has most of northern Michigan in a
Day 3 marginal risk, keeping the slight risk mainly to our southwest
where better instability will be found.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

A fairly quiet stretch of weather late this week into this weekend
as high pressure builds in. This will lead to awesome middle of the
summer conditions with warm mostly sunny days and comfortably cool
nights. Did undercut nighttime blend temperatures by a few degrees,
mainly in the normally cooler low lying spots. The next chance for
showers arrives Monday as a cold front approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...VFR...

High pressure will move in overhead tonight then slide east
Tuesday. This will provide for clear skies with only an increase
in mid and higher level clouds late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Winds will be calm, then turn out of the SW Tuesday with lake
breezes expected primarily at APN. Will need to watch for some low
end LLWS late Tuesday night, as well as the next small chance for
showers.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria along much of
the Lake Huron nearshore areas into this evening...dropping below
criteria later this evening as high pressure moves overhead.
Conditions will strengthen to SCA criteria again late Tuesday night
into Wednesday along the Lake Michigan shoreline as southerly flow
strengthens ahead of our next area of low pressure. Our next chance
of showers and storms will arrive at that time as well.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SD
MARINE...MR



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