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000
FXUS63 KAPX 290202
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
902 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

WARM ADVECTION WING OF -SN PUSHED EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI EARLIER
IN THE DAY. THIS PRODUCED SOME SNOW IN WESTERN MACK AND PROBABLY
FAR WESTERN CHIP (NEWBERRY WAS BELOW 3SM IN -SN FOR NOT QUITE AN
HOUR). BUT THE BETTER EMBEDDED BAND WITHIN THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...AND DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW/MID
TEENS IN FAR EASTERN UPPER MI. SO THIS WING HAS DETERIORATED TO
JUST A JUST OF -SN...FLURRIES...OR EVEN JUST VIRGA. FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL WAIT
UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WHEN FGEN INCREASES JUST NE OF A
SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THIS UPTICK IN FGEN IS
SUDDEN...AND THOUGH THIS WILL BE A SHORT EVENT (MAINLY WED
MORNING)...PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE LOCALLY ON THE HEALTHY SIDE.
WILL BUMP UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING IN
RESPONSE...SOMETHING MORE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE IN N CENTRAL AND
NE LOWER MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW COVERED ROADS BY
MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT
DAY ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING.
CHANGES BEGINNING WELL OVERHEAD...AS EVIDENT BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS IN INITIAL PHASE OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION WELL AHEAD OF DUAL
APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...ONE DIVING DIVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH ANOTHER PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS CONTINUES ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOWER. AS
MENTIONED...SUB CLOUD LAYER DRY AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...PREVENTING
MUCH...IF ANY...OF THIS PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING OF SNOW AND JUST HOW
MUCH WILL FALL.

DETAILS: TOP-DOWN WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS
UPSTREAM WAVES APPROACH THE AREA. DESPITE PERSISTENT
ADVECTION...ATTENDANT MOISTURE PLUME LIMITED AT BEST...WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRE-SYSTEM GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AND
PRIMARY FOCUS OF SYSTEM ATTENDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH. CONUS RADAR IMAGERY BEARS THIS OUT...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT
OF RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST H8 LOW LEVEL JET (UPWARDS OF 50+ KNOTS)
SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR
REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES "SPIKING" TO AOA 0.5 INCHES BY MORNING.
GOTTA THINK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MASS CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF SAID
LOW LEVEL JET...ALL TUCKED UNDER IMPROVING MID LEVEL SUPPORT VIA
APPROACHING WAVES... SHOULD BE ABLE TO COMPLETE THE SATURATION
PROCESS...FORCING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WHAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS AS MAX OMEGA FOCUSES IN A
RATHER WARM THERMAL REGIME (MINUS SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS). MODEL
SOUNDINGS EVEN SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF ELEVATED MELTING
LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. PRODUCTION OF PRECIP SHOULD ELIMINATE
SUCH VERY QUICKLY...SUPPORTING SNOW AS THE PRIMARY FORM OF PRECIP.
UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW BY MORNING FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH FOR NORTHERN
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
A CUTOFF FEATURE IN THE SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS
RUNNING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEING REPORTED AT ISQ. VERY LITTLE HAPPENING BACK THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS EXCEPT SOME LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE SFC LOW. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
AND EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE SRN SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...ELONGATED SFC LOW AND AXIS OF DECENT QG ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT "FLARE-UP" OF PRECIP ESSENTIALLY
OVER THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. BUT AS MENTIONED...
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A
LITTLE DISCONCERTING. BUT...GIVING THE PHASING AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAITH THAT WE SEE A PERIOD OF
EXPANDING SNOWFALL LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG DEAL...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AND
A WETTER SNOW...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICKER ROAD
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS -12C TO -16
CO H8 AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION...EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT...WITH TEMPS AT THE INVERSION
NEAR -20C...LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY DESPITE THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH
OF THE MINOR VARIETY. CERTAINLY COLDER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WAIT...NOT FINISHED YET. ONE
MORE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK-ISH SFC LOW IS SLATED TO
ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL COME FROM ENHANCED LAKE
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BATCH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BUT
AGAIN...NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SNOW MAKER BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THE FIRST OF TWO WEEKEND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH ANY WEAKLY-FORCED LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND (AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE-STARVED) WEAK WAVE LOOKS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS ONLY REINFORCING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RENEWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST COAST ENERGY TO EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS RESULTING IN
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEEMINGLY...
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A BIT OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIPPLE OR TWO IN
THE FLOW COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

-SN AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY THU MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN IOWA WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING SOUTHERN
LOWER MI THU MORNING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND -SN WILL DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD -SN
DEPARTS BY AFTERNOON...BUT -SHSN/BLSN WILL BE SEEN IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM.

SE BREEZE TONIGHT...VEERING NW THU MORNING...AND BECOMING RATHER
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. LLWS TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ