Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 190341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1141 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 935 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Secondary surface trof crossing Lake MI contributed to reasonably
healthy late afternoon/early evening sprinkle/-shra coverage in
northern MI. That activity has waned with loss of heating, and
continued dry advection on w to nw winds. Suppose not impossible
to pop a stray shower over the next hour or two, but most (perhaps
all) of that activity is over.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are still seen from the Atlanta/
Hillman area north. Clouds are also diminishing with time, and
that trend will continue, but will need to slow that trend in the
going forecast.

To the south, some light fog has already formed, aided by relative
lack of vertical mixing today. Will mention fog over a
considerably larger area for the rest of the night.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

High pressure settling over the Great Lakes tonight.  Although
satellite imagery shows plenty of clearing over Wisconsin, hints of
lingering 850-700mb moisture over interior northern lower into
eastern upper, possibly resulting in some additional cloudiness
through at least the first half of tonight.  Eventually, the dry air
should win out with mostly clear skies everywhere by later tonight.
Low temperatures in the 40s, which is still several degrees above
normal.  With a wet ground from recent rains and the cooler
temperatures, will likely see some radiation fog develop
overnight,and possibly some areas of stratus...especially low lying
areas and inland location`s closer to bodies of water.

Some early morning fog possible...otherwise, quiet weather on
Wednesday with surface high pressure slowly sliding into the eastern
lakes as next upstream cold front sags southward toward Michigan.
Limited moisture with this next front, although there will be a
narrow axis of higher 850-700mb moisture along it.  This will work
into eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan during the afternoon
hours.  So more sunshine in the morning, with increasing afternoon
cloudiness.  Temperatures remaining quite mild, with most areas in
the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Cold front moves through early Thursday morning. Moisture north
of Ohio Valley low gets caught up ahead of the front. Moisture is
not very deep...mostly confined below 850mb. But with front moving
through should provide the region with at least a chance of some
rain...especially south. The front will also usher in temperatures
more close to normal for this time of year. Upper trough moves
through MI Friday with 850mb temps dropping below 0C. Northerly
1000- 850mb flow should bring lake effect rain showers to the Lake
Michigan and Lake Huron coasts during the day Friday. Low levels
should be warm enough in the morning for all liquid
precipitation...altho it is close in the UP. Meanwhile the upper
trough becomes more negatively-tilted. This helps the low which
will be over the mid-atlantic states to slow and starts to move
atlantic moisture back towards Lake Huron late Friday.

Saturday through Tuesday...will trend seasonal with some sun and
possible lake induced pcpn.

At upper levels...a deep 500mb trough centered over the ern Great
Lakes Friday night will slowly lift toward the north Atlantic during
the weekend...while 500mb heights slowly begin to rise during the
upcoming work week as a board upper trough organizes over the
central Plains. 850mb temps in this pattern will warm from around
-5c during the weekend to around -2c Monday and Tuesday. This
pattern will generate below normal temps in the 40s Saturday...
before trending to more seasonal readings in the 50s through Tuesday.

At the surface...the Great Lakes will largely be controlled by high
pressure through the weekend and to begin the upcoming work week as
a strong storm system lifts north along the Atlantic coast. The next
system to influence the region will organize over the Plains and
lift into the Ohio Valley by midweek. Overall mainly dry conds are
expected across nrn Mi through the period...though cold air aloft
and weak cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will generate a threat
for some lake effect pcpn over nrn Mi through hte weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Some fog overnight, especially MBL/PLN, otherwise VFR.

Cooler/drier air continues to slowly push into the region from the
nw. Most of northern lower has cleared out, and winds are just
light enough to allow for some fog to form. PLN/APN have already
had some vsby restrictions, and expect those to be the sites that
see the largest impact from fog. Some MVFR stratocu also lingers
near PLN, that will erode over the next few hours.

Light westerly breezes thru the forecast.


Issued at 316 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The gradient will continue to relax tonight, with winds
dissipating.  Likely still some residual wave action from the recent
gusty winds but they should be subsiding as well.  No marine
headlines for the next few days, with increasing winds and potential
headlines toward the end of the week.




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