Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 270704
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
304 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STALLED OVER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. SPOTTY CIRRUS IS DRIFTING
THRU THE STRAITS...AND SOME PATCHY FOG IS TRYING TO DEVELOP MAINLY
AROUND HTL ATTM. AFTER A VERY WARM DAY OF TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S
AND EVEN A FEW 90S...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.

HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL HOLD OVER MICHIGAN TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN LEND TO LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN COMBINED
WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LAKE
BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY WX THRU TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

(7/28)TUESDAY...GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIPITATION THAT IT HAD
CONTINUED TO TRY AND PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. IT IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF SO HAVE SCALED
BACK THE POPS AND DON`T HAVE ANYTHING GETTING INTO THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z, AND MOST OF THAT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE IT WILL GET INTO THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z.

OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF M-32
WITH EVEN E UPPER GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, SO THE RH WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30% RANGE. DRY, BUT NOT OUT OF HAND.

(7/29)WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY, AND SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE LAKE HURON SHORE
AROUND 00Z, WHERE WE WILL EXPECT THE LAST OF THE RAIN EXITING AS
WELL. THE AIR MASS CHANGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S BY THE
AFTERNOON. THEN HAVE THE AREA RAPIDLY DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. THERE
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS AS THE 850 MB COLD AIR AND HIGHER RH
AIR PUSHES INTO E UPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE 500 MB COLD POOL AGAIN
LODGES ITSELF INTO JAMES BAY. OTHERWISE, ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, IT LOOK DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STALLED OVERHEAD.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN THRU TUESDAY AND THEN
SHIFTS EAST OF OUR STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THRU TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



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