Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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647
FXUS63 KAPX 112041
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
341 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD.

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SE-WARD...JUST W OF LAKE MI. WINDS ARE
BACKING IN RESPONSE...WITH LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS BEING
PUSHED EASTWARD. THIS LEFTOVER LES IS QUITE WEAK...HINDERED BY
ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR. SOMEWHAT STRONGER LES ELEMENTS ARE SEEN
ON SUPERIOR. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NORTH OF SUPERIOR...AND THIS ONE
MEANS BUSINESS...ENTERING EASTERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN...FAR NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT...AND
CHIPPEWA CO OVERNIGHT. THE LTL TRAV BAY REGION IS THE MAIN TARGET OF
WEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES)...WHICH IS WHAT WE WILL SEE TONIGHT
UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS AT DAWN. NOTE THAT THIS FETCH IS NOT AS LONG
AS IT WAS EARLIER IN THE WINTER...AS GREEN BAY IS FROZEN OVER. THIS
FETCH ALSO HAS NO CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHER LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS ARE GENERALLY QUITE POSITIVE...DELTA T/S 20-ISH...
INVERSION HEIGHTS AT TIMES UP TO 8K FT...A RELATIVELY STABLE FETCH.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR AND SHORT FETCH SHOULD PROVE TO BE A
CONSIDERABLE OBSTACLE. THIS IS OBSERVED IN NAM SOUNDINGS OVER FAR
NORTHERN LAKE MI...WHICH ARE NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED BENEATH THE
INVERSION (INCLUDING A 10C DEW PT DEPRESSION AT 850MB). THINK THIS
IS INDICATIVE OF LES NOT BEING AS INTENSE AS IT COULD BE. WILL BACK
OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW AMOUNTS IN FAR NORTHERN LOWER...MORE IN THE 2-3
INCH RANGE...AND REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY THERE FOR THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

CHIPPEWA...HERE A SHORT FETCH IS NOT A CONCERN. DOMINANT BAND WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN W FLOW...AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS BAND WILL PUSH INTO CHIPPEWA CO
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SAID FRONT. EXPECT HEALTHY SNOWFALL RATES (2
IN/HR) FOR A SHORT PERIOD AT LEAST IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHIP.
CERTAINLY EXPECT A HEALTHY IMPACT (NEARING 4 INCHES) AT PARADISE AND
POINTS NORTH...QUESTION IS HOW HARD THE SAULT MIGHT GET HIT? SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WILL HAVE ABOUT 2 INCHES THERE. GIVEN INTENSE
SNOWFALL RATES FOR A PERIOD...AND IN LINE WITH MQT...WILL ISSUE AN
ADVISORY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT FOR CHIP.

ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MI...GENERALLY SCT POPS OR LESS...EXCEPT VERY
EARLY ON (FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY)...AND VERY LATE (WHEN SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT ARRIVES AFTER 09Z IN PARTS OF NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER MI).
MINIMAL ACCUMS THRU DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE. EASTERN UPPER WILL SEE RISING
TEMPS THIS EVENING...FALLING AGAIN LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SINGLE DIGITS.
NW LOWER WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE IN THE TEENS. IN N CENTRAL AND NE
LOWER... READINGS WILL DROP BACK INTO SINGLE DIGITS OR EVEN NEAR
ZERO BEFORE REBOUNDING A BIT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOW CONTINUING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...CONTINUED COLD WITH SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES...
AS YET ANOTHER SURFACE FEATURE DROPS SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 850/500MB QVECTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...SHOWING STRONG CONVERGENCE OVER NRN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z FRIDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING ARND 00Z SATURDAY AS A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER THE
SNOWBELTS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS BTWN 5K AND 6K
FT...WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TREND FROM WEST FRIDAY MORNING TO
NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE HINDERED AS THE RESULT OF EXTREMELY COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE.
MODEL SOUDNINGS FRIDAY SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -20C AND
-24C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER 60 PCT.
LAKE EFFECTS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWS
ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACRS NW FLOW SNOWBELTS...AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 6K FT AND SFC-850MB WINDS SET UP
MORE PERSISTENTLY NORTHWEST. TEMPS ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BE
WARMEST DURING THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -24C BY THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED INTO THE WRN
LAKES AND NRN PLAINS FRIDAY...WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. AT UPPER LVLS...500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC
SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST LEAVING ONLY WEAK RIPPLES IN THE
UPPER FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL STILL BE AN INFLUENCE
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES MAINLY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -24C CONTINUES OVER WATER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER LAKE SNOWS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING AS MODEL SOUDNIGS SHOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING BELOW 3KT THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE. ALSO...SFC-850MB WINDS SATURDAY
EVENING WILL TREND MORE NORTHERLY HELPING TO FOCUS LAKE SNOWS MORE
DIRECTLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OVERALL
WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF DRY SUNDAY AS WEEKENDS HIGH
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST OF THE REGION...THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON SNOW
CHANCES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS SUNDAY OVER THE WRN LAKES...THE
RESULT OF INCREASING MID LVL MSTR IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH
DROOPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. COLD 850MB TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER NRN MI...WITH SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS
SATURDAY AND TEENS SUNDAY. THE REAL STORY WITH COLD THIS WEEKEND IS
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING BELOW ZERO...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS NEARING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
(-20F TO -30F OVER NRN LWR AND -25 TO -35 OVER ERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RAMP UP BEHIND THE EASTERN DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. SOME SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.S. 2 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN UPPER ON THE
SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ALSO AROUND THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPERATURES FINALLY
WARM TO LEVELS THAT WILL NOT SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS BY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LAKE
CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GIVES NORTHERN MICHIGAN A BRIEF BREAK
FROM PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEGINS IMPACTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN TOWARDS THE END OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO TO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. BECOMING IFR BY LATE EVENING PLN. IFR
AT TVC/MBL FRIDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
IS PASSING JUST TO OUR SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BACKING WINDS AND
DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SHSN FOR MOST SITES. HOWEVER...THE WEST
FETCH WILL TARGET PLN WITH BETTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT.
ANTICIPATE PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH WITH CONSIDERABLE
VARIABILITY AS IT TYPICAL IN LAKE EFFECT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING...ENHANCE SHSN ACTIVITY
INTO TVC/MBL.

WINDS WILL BACK WEST THIS AFTERNOON...VEER NW AND BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

BRISK WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT...WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTIER NW WINDS
FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MIZ019>022-025>028-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ



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