Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 280002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
802 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Northern MI on the edge of eastern US ridge. Area is in right
entrance region of 110kt upper jet which is riding over the top of
the ridge. Wave on WV loop can be seen moving into WI with deep
moisture and isentropic upglide ahead. Surface reflection of wave
seen in surface low over IA.

Large area of precipitation over the western and central Great Lakes
ahead of the surface low will continue northeast through the
evening. Instability lacking as shown on 12z kapx sounding with no
CAPE available early. But interestingly enough...BUFKIT soundings
show CAPE increasing to near 500 J/kg near the track the of the
surface low. So could be a few rumbles of thunder but mostly just a
cloudy night with areas of showers and drizzle. Should continue to
see lowering clouds and areas of fog as seen upstream cover the
region before the low tracks NE of MI as well.

Sunday high pressure moves in scouring out the low clouds in the
morning. Mid and upper levels dry fairly quickly and so should
continue to see more sunshine as the day goes on. Temperatures are
expected to be above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

High pressure will remain centered over the Western Great Lakes
region Sunday night...and will then slide east of Michigan on
Monday. Dry wx is expected thru Monday...although clouds will
gradually increase from NW To SE on Monday as return flow sets up
between departing high pressure to the east and an approaching
upstream cold front over the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Still appears chances of showers and storms will hold off until
Monday night as a narrow band of deeper moisture surges northward
right along and just ahead of the cold front. Cold front will move
thru Upper Michigan Monday night and thru Northern Lower Michigan on
Tuesday. Thus... highest POPs will remain across the NW half of our
CWA Monday night... shifting to our SE CWA on Tuesday where passage
of the front during peak diurnal heating/instability may very well
lend some additional instability to convective development.

Low temps Sunday night will be in the 50s...warming into the 60s for
Monday night under thickening cloud cover ahead of the cold front.
Temps will be a few degrees warmer on Monday as low level flow backs
to the south. Afternoon highs will be mainly in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Highs on Tuesday will be just a few degrees cooler for
our NW CWA in the wake of the cold front. Afternoon highs on Tuesday
will range from the low to mid 70s in Eastern Upper and far NW Lower
Michigan to the lower 80s in our SE CWA.


Guidance continues to suggest that most, if not all, cold frontal
driven scattered precip will be southeast of the area by the start of
the extended period. The remainder of the week features high
amplitude ridging over the center of the country with northern
Michigan sitting on the northeastern periphery. At this point,
several dry and seasonable days are expected as surface high
pressure settles overhead; however, will continue to watch the
potential for one or more convective complexes to develop over the
ridge to our west and slide across the Great Lakes in a ring of fire
type set up.



.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 759 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions expected to continue overnight in
low overcast/light shower/drizzle environment. Also expecting some
fog/br to impact all taf locations. Conditions begin to improve
Sunday morning, and especially during the afternoon, as dry air
lifts cigs and any fog lifts. Light winds expected through this
taf period.


Issued at 217 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

No SCAs expected through the NSH period. Low pressure and
rainfall ahead of it will move NE and out of MI by morning. Low
clouds and patchy fog can be expected before the low moves out.
Improvement is expected in the weather Sunday as high pressure moves


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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