Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 021705
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
105 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT TO ADD FROM EARLIER THINKING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY...CONTINUING THE DRY WEATHER UNDER
JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR RAPID DIURNAL
RESPONSE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...EVENTUALLY REACHING INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP...KEEPING
SHORELINE AREAS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

A SPARKLING DAY AND CRISP NIGHT AHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MARITIME PROVINCES CONTINUES TO EXTEND RIDGING INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. THIS RIDGE AXIS IS NOW ESSENTIALLY DEAD
OVERHEAD...AND WILL REMAIN THERE TODAY. THE RIDGING BECOMES A BIT
LESS PROMINENT TONIGHT...WITH THE 1ST HINTS OF RETURN FLOW GETTING
UNDERWAY. STILL...THE LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY. THERE IS A
TOUCH OF CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE NW...THIS WILL TEND TO
INCREASE AS THE ZONE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION TO OUR WEST WORKS
EASTWARD. BUT FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.

TODAY...ONGOING FROST HEADLINES WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING. AIRMASS HAS UNDERGONE CONSIDERABLE MODIFICATION...WITH
850MB TEMPS NOW IN THE 5-8C RANGE. ANY THIN CIRRUS WILL DO LITTLE
TO INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING...AND MAX TEMPS WILL THUS BE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP THE BEACHES CHILLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. RH LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 25 PERCENT...BUT THE
LACK OF WIND WILL KEEP FIRE WX CONCERNS SMALL.

TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN A SMIDGE AS THE HIGH TO OUR
EAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY. CIRRUS WILL ALSO BE ON SOMETHING OF AN
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. NEITHER WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
US FROM DECOUPLING. BUT COMING ON THE HEELS OF A WARMER DAY...THEY
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST (MOSTLY) AT BAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE ABSOLUTE COLDEST LOCALES SEEING A TOUCH OF
FROST (AU SABLE VALLEY...PLN)...WHERE TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
OR PERHAPS A SMIDGE COLDER. BUT MOST PLACES WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

(6/3)WEDNESDAY...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
THREATENS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE, THE 850 MB
AND 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE LAGGING A BIT THROUGH THE DAY, AND THE
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT A LOSS OF COORDINATION OF THE
MOISTURE AND THE FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT. OF COURSE FOR THE
DAY, THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE DRY. OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE RAIN
LOOKS TO ENCROACH ON E UPPER AND NW LOWER. NOW WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
BACKING OFF TO THE GFS IDEA, AM THINKING THAT THE NIGHT COULD END UP
DRY, EVEN IN E UPPER.

(6/4) THURSDAY...THIS PERIOD IS BECOMING MORE PROBLEMATIC, AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE FRONT WILL DO MUCH OF ANYTHING. THE
MOISTURE AT 850 MB LOOKS OKAY, BUT THE OVERALL PROFILE IS LOOKING
RATHER ANEMIC AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION WITH THE BETTER 500 MB JET STREAK NEAR JAMES BAY WHERE THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE BETTER. THE BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT ALSO LOOKS
BETTER NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR, AND AM THINKING THAT THE ECMWF SFC
WAVE IS LESS LIKELY. OVERNIGHT, WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
AS THE RAIN LOOKS TO THIN OUT AS ONE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES
EAST, AND THE OTHER SITS IN THE PLAINS, DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE NOW IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING WET, VS THE DRY GFS. BOTH HAVE
THE SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND BECOMING A HUDSON BAY
HIGH. HOWEVER, SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY ON BOTH OF THE MODELS AS THE
HIGH DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE SE DROPPING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH SETS UP
THE RETURN FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY WILL
HAVE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE ECMWF KEEPS A CUT OFF 500 MB
LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS TROUGHY, BUT DRY. NOT
SURE THAT I BELIEVE THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD UNDER JUST SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS. LIGHT LAKE BREEZE WINDS TODAY...BECOMING CALM TONIGHT.
SOUTH FLOW STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WIND/WAVE
ACTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JAZ



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