Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 252325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
725 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

...Somewhat improving wx to wrap up the work week...

High impact weather potential...none.

Surface low in n-central Ohio continues to move slowly ne. Some
associated moisture continues to push back into northern MI from the
e, resulting in generally light precip over central and eastern
sections. We`re already on the far west edge of this system, and as
it continues to pull out to the ne, our wx will improve. Somewhat.

Tonight/Friday...secondary development over the ne states will
contribute to the diminishing influence of the present Ohio low. But
a lobe of deeper moisture will hang back across Lake Huron and
surroundings, only really washing out Friday morning. Even then, the
window between that departing, and developing warm advection cloud
cover ahead of a low in s central Canada, will be small. It does not
seem likely that we will see the unrelenting sunshine places west of
Lake MI are enjoying today.

Models differ somewhat as to how long the grunge will linger. Most
recent Rap runs favor precip ending in ne lower by midnight, whereas
the Nam keeps some precip in ne lower MI all night long. The going
forecast is steered in between, which is fine, though the Nam has
not done well today (not the biggest surprise). Could perhaps still
need a likely pop to start the evening in parts of ne lower and near
Drummond Isl, otherwise chancy pops or less that will (slowly) fade
away during the night. Leftover soupy low-level airmass will be fog-
prone tonight with any breaks in the cloud cover.

For Friday, we have considerable mid/high clouds streaming in, and a
cu field will flare up beneath it during the day. Stratus could well
be hanging on in parts of ne lower MI, though that should mix out
toward midday. Some steepish mid-level lapse rates cruise by sw
sections thanks to warm advection aloft (just above 7 c/km above
600mb). Would not rule out a stray shower or two, but certainly most
of northern MI will be dry on Friday. Sunshine will be somewhat
limited though, which will hinder temps. Would expect eastern upper
to see a bit more sun than northern lower.

Min temps tonight rather mild, near 50f. Max temps Friday
mid/upper 60s, a few spots (including TVC) pushing 70f.


.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

...Mostly dry Saturday; increasing rain chances Sunday...

High impact weather potential...Minimal, though a few thunderstorms
possible on Sunday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Weak upper ridge will flatten out as its
axis crosses the Upper Great Lakes Friday night. A weak tilted
shortwave will then ripple across northern Michigan through Saturday
morning with a corresponding surface low crossing downstate. Upper
flow pattern then turns SW and becomes more amplified heading into
Saturday night and Sunday as a deep upper low over Central Canada
wobbles southeast into the Upper Midwest. This will carry a few weak
disturbances through northern Michigan. With sufficient moisture in
play (PWATs of 0.8" to 1" or higher) these features will result in
nuisance showers at times over the weekend. The better chances for
showers look to be Friday night for mainly parts of northern Lower
as the shortwave moves through, and then the second half of Sunday
for all of northern MI as the deeper trough approaches with stronger

Saturday will feature a partial decrease in clouds through the day
as well as 850mb temperatures rising from around 8C to near 12C.
This will result in a nice jump in surface temperatures with highs
in the mid 70s across interior northern Lower, possibly flirting
with 80 in a few spots as suggested by a few GEFS/SREF members.
Cloudier skies, showers, and cooler temperatures aloft will result
in highs being a few degrees cooler on Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Rain chances through the weekend will be
the main forecast challenge.

Now showing a slightly stronger shortwave tracking a bit farther
north, the 25.12Z NAM/GFS both came in wetter than their 06Z
counterparts for Friday night across northern Lower. At this point,
the NAM`s northern jump and QPF looks overdone, so will keep the
better shower chances just brushing our far south. Can`t also rule
out isolated showers across eastern Upper, but the better forcing
will be found over Lower MI.

Light prevailing winds will allow for the possibility of lake
breezes developing Saturday afternoon that could trigger an isolated
shower or two (very low probability). Otherwise it looks to be a
benign weather day and the pick day of the holiday weekend.

Rain chances will increase heading into Sunday, especially towards
afternoon. There will also be some marginal instability (SBCAPEs
perhaps approaching 1000 J/kg in spots) as a ridge of higher theta-e
noses into northeast Lower. Will therefore introduce a chance of
thunder in Sunday`s forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Unsettled weather expected through much of next week as deep H5
trough sits over the Great Lakes. This will also bring temperatures
near, and slightly below, normal through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

More IFR/MVFR producing low clouds to pinwheel west across the
area tonight into at least the first part of Friday. Worst
conditions expected to occur at KAPN, with more persistent IFR
cigs and occasional light rain and drizzle. Already seeing plenty
of mist, especially at KAPN. This trend should continue, and will
definitely need to be on the lookout for overnight fog
development. Have trended vis down at all sites, but not nearly as
aggressive as some guidance would suggest. Cigs expected to
gradually lift later Friday as low level drying becomes more
aggressive. Light winds through the duration.


Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Somewhat gusty NE winds will diminish this evening as they back to
the NW overnight. Wind direction will vary heading into Friday and
the holiday weekend, but wind speeds will remain rather light.




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