Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 031917
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST. THE BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HR. MOST OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14Z.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS
WELL. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE EAST IMPLIES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EAST. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS VERY MIMINAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG PER THE
RAP...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...IT WILL STILL REMAIN MILD AND RATHER STICKY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...IT SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SAT
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ON CONTINUED HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN.

FRI NIGHT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST PART...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W A SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES W OF
THE CWA IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SIMILAR SETUP ON SAT...BUT GREATER
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE W. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...DUE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE SAT AT ONLY AROUND
20KTS...WHICH LIMITS ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE 12Z/03 GFS IS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWING PRECIP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY SAT
NIGHT...WITH THE W POSSIBLY SEEING SOME CONVECTION. PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY OVER THE W HALF ON SUN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE W.
WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER SUN...WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES AROUND
30KTS...BUT MUCAPES WILL ONLY BE 1000-1500J/KG. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST ON SUN AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE 20-22C...PROMOTING WARMEST
TEMPS AROUND 90 IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THE COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH WILL
MEAN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME PRECIP.

MON WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND PRECIP EXITING E. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME COOLER AND DRIER...BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS C BY LATE MON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS DETAILS OF A TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE REGION ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. DOES LOOK COOLER WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KIWD/KSAW WHILE MVFR VSBY IS EXPECTED AT
KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MRD


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