Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMQT 030905
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
505 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN INTERIOR. GIVEN THAT FACTORS WERE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT BUT WILL PLAY UP STRONGER WORDING IN FWF AND HWO
PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.