Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 190710

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
310 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

Seems as though mother nature has the U.P. stuck in the rinse-n-
repeat cycle, with continued rain/clouds; however, it does appear
some adjustments are taking place. The trough axis/shortwave over
the region will shift the warm/humid conditions to the east, with a
quasi-zonal/northwest flow building in for the upcoming week. Temps
this afternoon have struggled to warm due to the thick solar shield
overhead, keeping temps generally in the 50s to a few low 60s in the
far southern portions of the U.P. The precip shield has shifted
northeast over Lake Superior, but with heights beginning to rise
along the western CWFA showers have become less organized with more
cellular/scattered coverage.

Overnight skies will remain cloudy with a few spotty showers, but
expect a period between 6-12z Mon to have dry weather. Then guidance
indicates a weak lobe of vorticy to pivot southeast along the back
side of the 500mb trough axis and help to re-introduce rain around
15z thru Mon aftn/eve. With temps a thermal trough overhead, expect
some differential heating within the column to help maringally
destabilize and produce some isolated thunderstorms by 18z Mon and
persist thru the afternoon. The main instability axis does appear to
be south of Marquette along the Michigan/Wisconsin stateline.
Otherwise to the north chances of rain will return. Highs Mon will
continue unseasonably cool in the low/mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the western U.S. 12z Tue with a trough
over the ern half of the U.S. with a shortwave over the upper Great
Lakes. This shortwave moves through on Tue with more troughing and
shortwaves affecting the area Wed night. Nam has some 850-500 mb q-
vector convergence and deeper moisture Tue morning that moves out by
Tue evening with both returning for Wed night. Did not make too many
changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a flattened and broad 500 mb
ridge over the southern half of the U.S. with a broad trough over
Canada and the northern half of the U.S. 12z Thu. Troughing remains
over the upper Great Lakes into Mon with temperatures remaining
below normal along with unsettled weather through most of this
forecast period.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 139 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

An isolated shower possible overnight at IWD and CMX, but
otherwise scattered showers will pick up again on Monday as
another disturbance moves into the area. Lingering low-level
moisture and upslope wnw flow will likely result in MVFR to
possibly IFR conditions at times at KCMX into Mon morning, but
then expect improvement to VFR Mon afternoon. VFR conditions at
KIWD will likely lower to MVFR overnight tonight in a upslope
westerly flow, but then improve again to VFR Mon afternoon. At
KSAW, VFR conditions could give way to a period of MVFR cigs on
Mon especially if showers develop and move over the area.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 303 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

Low pressure system will depart Lake Superior to the Northeast, this
will usher in slightly cooler air with northwest winds between 15-
20kt. This will help to build waves slightly along the Lake Superior
shoreline. With cooler/less-humid air flowing over the lake, expect
any fog to slowly dissipate by late tonight/early Monday.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Beachler
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