Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 160725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM CNTRL WI
INTO NE IA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN FROM SE WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI.
THE COMINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -8C
RESULTING IN STEEP SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES TO 8C/KM ALONG WITH WEAK
FORCING ON THE NRN END OF THE SHRTWV AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
HAVE SUPPORTED ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAVE SPREAD THROUGH
CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE EAST...DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES...THE PCPN
WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR BELOW
0.5 INCH...OR 50 PCT OF NORMAL...WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FROST INLAND
AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY IN THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES AND OTHER FAVORED COLD SPOTS INTO SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

TUESDAY...SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DAGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. ANY LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
900-800 MB FGEN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE KEWEENAW UNTIL EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE THE CWA TUE EVENING WILL HAVE A
WNW-ESE ORIENTATION OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AT 12Z WED...AND WILL MOVE
S OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE N OF THE FRONT
AND BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT...USHERING IN DRY
AND COLDER AIR. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PRECIP CHANCES IS THAT THE
GREATEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA WED MORNING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ENERGY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOWER TO THE S...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL FOLLOW THE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 OVER NRN
UPPER MI NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL.

THE SFC HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED A NARROW AREA OF
WAA AND GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT NEWEST RUNS SHOW
THAT BEING WELL SW OF THE CWA. THEREFOR...WHILE ERN UPPER MI SHOULD
STILL BE THE COLDEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH AND COLDEST
AIRMASS...THE WRN CWA COULD ALSO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS. LOOKS LIKE
FROST IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND UPPER MI.

LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON THU BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC
HIGH AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THU DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER THAN WED.

WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REALLY INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE
SFC HIGH TO THE E SLOWS AND THE TROUGH TO THE W ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. THE WAA AND POSSIBLY SOME  SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI...BUT BECOME MUCH HARDER TO USE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE /AT LEAST PARTLY/ TO WITH PHASING OF REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH. WHILE MODELS DO ALL SHOW A
GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF FOR SAT...THEY DO NOT AGREE WELL IN THE FEATURES
CAUSING THE PRECIP. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SAT...SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES GOING FOR FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING...BUT AM NOT OVER CONCERNED ABOUT
HEAVY RAIN UNLESS REMNANTS OF ODILE END UP MOVING INTO THE AREA
/WHICH IS HIGH UNCERTAIN/. WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED ON SAT AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 15C.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH NW FLOW SUN AND MON...EVEN BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ECMWF SHOULD BE SET ASIDE BECAUSE IT IS A COLD
OUTLIER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL GET GUSTY AT IWD AND CMX TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
     004-005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS






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