Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 141922
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
322 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO HEAD EAST TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY. NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN BRING IN SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON TUE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -16C AND WITH ALL THE ICE OUT ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T IS 16C WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUE AND
WITH ITS MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFFECTED LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS. WILL NOT GET TOO OUT OF HAND THOUGH
AS ICE COVERAGE IS LIMITING THE INTENSITY A BIT. PUSHED POPS UP A
BIT IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS TO SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE PRETTY COLD THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND THERE COULD BE
A FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FOR LOWS AND MAYBE EVEN COLD
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS ON TUE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. QUITE CHILLY
WITHIN THE TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -20C OVER LK SUPERIOR.
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE IN THE MEAN TROUGH INCREASES DEPTH OF QUALITY
OF MOISTURE AND ALSO STEEPENS H9-H7 LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY. LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES MAY TRANSITION TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
COVERAGE EXTENDING INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER AND LK MICHIGAN SHORE.
POPS LOW CHANCE AT BEST THOUGH. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COOL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30
IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. NORMAL HIGHS ARE INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTH. WAVE MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES
TO TEMPORARILY CLEAR OUT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT BEGINS TO IMPACT
FAR WEST CWA WITH LGT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MAY DIP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY AREAS BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK
IN LATER DURING THE NIGHT.

WHAT TO DO WITH SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME LARGER FOCUS ONCE
WE GET PAST SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW TO MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. WILL
TWO CAMPS STILL PRESENT IN THE MODELS. NAM/GFS BRING SHORTWAVE AND SFC
LOW PRESSURE AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY QUICKER...AND HAVE MORE QPF. BOTH CAMPS OF MODELS GENERATE QPF
INTO WESTERN CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTED BY LARGER SCALE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BTWN JETS EMERGING FM THE PLAINS AND CROSSING LK
SUPERIOR REGION. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND UKMET ARE SLOWER AND NOT AS
HEAVY WITH QPF OVER UPR MICHIGAN...KEEPING FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIP
OVER CNTRL MN INTO WCNTRL WI ALONG TRACK OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVE
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE
MODEL DIFFERENCES...ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO PUSH POPS TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WESTERN AND
PROBABLY CENTRAL CWA WILL SEE MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH BULK OF SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MIXING RATIOS 2.5-3G/KG WOULD SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING AREA OF
MID-LEVEL FGEN...FAIRLY STRONG CONSIDERING HOW FAR OUT WE ARE
STILL...THAT COULD RESULT IN BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LIKELY THE
WEST CWA. HPC HEAVY SNOW GRAPHICS SHOW MUCH OF FAVORED AREA WITH
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SEEING 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOW PROBABILITY
OF SEEING 8 INCHES. BASED ON 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES AND
H85 TEMPS...SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND COULD CHANGE TO RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER SCNTRL AND EAST CWA. RAIN/SNOW MIX CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY FOR THOSE AREAS WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW DIMINISHES
ELSEWHERE. NO WATCH ATTM...AS IT WOULD BE LATER 5TH PERIOD AND STILL
NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS ONGOING SNOW SYSTEM TO AVOID ANY CONFUSION.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN EHWO/HWOMQT.

LATER THURSDAY AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE FORECAST IS AT BEST
MUDDLED...WHICH LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR SURE. GFS
MORE OR LESS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN
STREAM LIFTING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE PHASING WITH NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RESULT IS WRAPPED UP SFC LOW WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER UPR MICHIGAN. GEM-NH SUPPORTS IDEA
SOMEWHAT THOUGH IT IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG. ECMWF WAS TRENDING
NORTH AND WEST WITH THAT SYSTEM...BUT WITH LATEST RUN NOW HAS WENT
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST...KEEPING MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN DRY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF IS NOT PHASING THE SOUTHERN WAVE NEAR AS MUCH AS GFS ATTEMPTS
TO SHOW. CONSENSUS POPS...CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE...WILL BE UTILIZED
FOR NOW. WHATEVER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD BE EXITING TO START THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AS SHOWN BY GFS. NOT SO INDICATES THE ECMWF...WITH A QUICK
PUSH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SFC TROUGH/RAIN SHOWERS FOR
SUNDAY. LATEST RUN BACKED OFF SOME...BUT JUST SHOWS THE HIGH
VARIABILITY THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR THAT FORECAST TIME FRAME. ONE
PRETTY SURE THING IS IT LOOKS LIKE WARMING TREND /TEMPS TRYING TO
RETURN TOWARD AVERAGE/ DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND AFTER WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A CHILLY MID APRIL WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

AT SAW...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMRPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
AFTERNOON AS THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR...DAYTIME HEATING AND
SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/WINDS ARRIVE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD.

IWD/CMX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AROUND CAUSING MVFR CIGS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

NORTH GALES 35-40 KNOTS FOR TODAY...MAINLY EAST HALF...AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO 20 KTS OVER MOST OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATER ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP
TO 25 KTS OVER MAINLY WESTERN LAKE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 20 KTS REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

REPORTS OF ICE JAMS IN DELTA COUNTY SUNDAY ON ESCANABA RIVER AND
ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES. HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT WAS ISSUED SUNDAY
EVENING AND THIS IS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION OCCURS
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW TODAY. OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ALSO IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. FEASIBLE THAT TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEK
MAY EXCEED AN INCH IN SOME AREAS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP
ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES
OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07
HYDROLOGY...JLA






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