Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 250502
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
102 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Surface ridge axis that extends from Ontario through eastern Lake
Superior into the eastern Great Lakes will only shift slowly
eastward tonight. Low level airmass is pretty dry and with several
hours of clear skies across the east tonight temperatures should
fall back into the 40s. Increasing clouds across the west should
keep temperatures much milder in the mid 50s.

Surface low over the northern plains will lift slowly northeastward
to the Manitoba/Ontario border on Sunday dragging an occluded front
eastward into the area. Deep moisture and convergence ahead of the
front should bring widespread shower and isolated thunder activity
to the U.P. during the day on Sunday. Rainfall totals should average
between a quarter and half inch before precipitation tapers off from
the west late in the day. Temperatures will be pretty seasonable in
the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Main story in the long term is an upper low that dives through the
area Sun night then occludes over or NE of far eastern Lake Superior
Monday night and leaves the area Tue night into Wed. Models vary on
the exact placement of the low, especially after is moves through,
and how fast it moved out, so winds speeds may vary decently from
this forecast. Based the forecast on a blend of models as it if
difficult to find a preference for one model over another at this
time. Plenty of rain in the forecast through at least Tue night as
the front will bring precip exiting the eastern U.P. Sun night, then
850mb temps as low as 1-3C and deep cyclonic and moist flow around
the system will lead to widespread lake enhanced rain over all but
maybe far south central Upper MI Mon through at least late Tue
night. W-NW Winds may gust up to 45mph along Lake Superior
(especially the Keweenaw and along eastern Lake Superior) Mon into
Mon night and should gust to 35mph late Mon night through Tue
evening. Again, exact wind speeds are somewhat uncertain, but should
be in that ballpark.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 102 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

VFR conditions will continue overnight at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW as low
levels remain relatively dry. Under a tightening pres gradient,
increasing winds above inversion will be sufficient for llws at KIWD
late tonight. Ahead of a cold front arriving late aftn/evening, a
band of shra will gradually spread e across the area, bringing
deteriorating conditions to low MVFR. May see a short period of IFR
at KIWD/KSAW. Winds will also become gusty to around 20-25kt today.
Toward the end of the fcst period after fropa, KIWD may improve to
VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 253 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Tightening pressure gradient across the lake tonight as high pressure
moves toward Quebec and New England and a low pressure system lifts
across Manitoba to northern Ontario. Southeast winds may gust as
high as 30 kts Sun into Sun evening over north central and eastern
sections of Lk Superior. The low will move east of the region Mon
into Tue and a cold front will cross Lake Superior. With 850
Temperatures falling to 2 C and tight pressure gradient on back side
of surface low dropping southward over the eastern lake...expect
northwesterly gales to around 40 knots on Monday and Monday evening.
Northwest winds to 25 kts continue on Tue then winds diminish to 20
kts or less by Wed as high pressure crosses the Great Lakes.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...07
MARINE...MZ



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