Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 200840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO POP UP OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO. THE VARIOUS HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LITTLE MORE
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SURGE OF LOWER 60S DWPTS MOVING INTO
WESTERN UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE TROUGH /PER THE 63 DEWPT AT
ASX/...WHICH SUPPORTS THE MODEST FORECAST INSTABILITY FROM THE NWP.
AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS OVER
THE WESTERN HALF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DESPITE THE
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW 800 MB. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND GIVEN THE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS BUILDS NORTHWARD. STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO RISE TO
THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASING CAP AS AN EML SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE W-SW
FLOW. WITH ANY FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN STAYING
WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE DAY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WHEN WEAK MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES IN BY 00Z.
OTHERWISE...WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER 850MB
TEMPS...HAVE OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS IN THE AREA INTO THE 80S FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LIKELY SEE MID 80S DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST ON MON WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SWLY WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNWIND AREAS COOLER.
SFC DEW PTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK PRECIP
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL ON MON DUE TO AN EML BEING OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWN QPF OVER
MAINLY NCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR THE SHORELINE WHILE TRYING TO MOVING INLAND AGAINST THE
SW WINDS. THINK THAT EVEN A GOOD LAKE BREEZE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
LIFTING ANY PARCELS PAST THE LFC...SO LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

BETTER PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT UPWIND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATED MORE
THAN ONE WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE LIKELY POPS
IN THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AT SOME POINT DURING THE
PERIOD IS HIGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL /AS WITH POPS IN THE GENERAL/ IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE DECAYING MCS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX/ES/. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND VERY
CONDITIONAL ON MANY OTHER FACTORS...SO MANY DETAILS OF THAT ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCURATELY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WED INTO FRI...MAKING FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A COLDER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S...COOLEST ON WED WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON SAT DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE NEXT WEEKEND
DUE TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHRA DUE
TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY PCPN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE A SERIES OF LOW PRES
SYSTEMS/TROFS MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ONE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N OR
NW. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
(15-25KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME PCPN OCCURS. UNTIL THEN...FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE
THE LAKE WHERE FLOW IS MORE CONVERGENT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MRD






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