Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 201138
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
738 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CWA...WITH THE 1006MB SFC LOW
SLIGHTLY OFFSET OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOW WILL BECOME MORE
VERTICALLY STACKED TODAY WHILE MOVING TO THE EXTREME ERN U.P. BY 00Z
THU AND TO GEORGIAN BAY BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
FAR WRN CWA. THE FOG CURRENTLY OVER NCENTRAL...ERN...AND UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WRN UPPER MI IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE TODAY.
WITH THE LOW MOVES E TODAY...EXPECTED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST DRYING
OVER THE WRN CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. THINK THAT
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A RESULT
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY 12Z THU WITH A BROAD
500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF CANADA INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
AND A RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST. THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH ON FRI INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NAM SHOWS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING LATE ON THU WHICH REMAINS
OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT. ONLY DRY PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE POPS LOOKS
TO BE THU MORNING AND THEN BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE THU
NIGHT WITH DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THEN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT. LOOKS
TO BE GETTING MORE HUMID THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW
POINTS CLIMBING ON THU. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING OFF THE
EAST COAST 12Z SAT. THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION 12Z SUN AND THERE IS A BUNCH OF WARM AIR WITH THE RIDGE
POISED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.
HEADS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WHERE IT AFFECTS THE AREA
INTO TUE. STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND A
COOL DOWN STARTING ON MON AND THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
EVERY PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT
ESE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIFR TO POSSIBLY OCNL VLIFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU AT LEAST MID MORNING. -SHRA/-DZ MAY ALSO OCCUR
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
AFTN...THOUGH ONLY KIWD SHOULD REACH VFR BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTN. KCMX/KSAW MAY NOT GET ABOVE THE LOW MVFR RANGE. AFTER
SUNSET...CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN FALL AT KCMX/KSAW...BUT ESPECIALLY AT
KSAW WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO DEPARTING SYSTEM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER PRIMARILY CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS. FOG THEN LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WARM...HUMID AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS
UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ABOVE THE RELATIVELY COLD WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS






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