Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ON 24/1020 UTC IS LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22.9N 73.3W MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF  SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N-
25N BETWEEN 70W-73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 66W-76W... INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA... WHERE THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N19W TO 10N20W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THE COAST
FROM 8N-21N. THE WAVE AXIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 19W-22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N28W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N42W TO 9N44W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 43W-45W. ELSEWHERE....NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST IS N OF 12N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N20W TO 9N34W TO 10N39W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 10N39W TO 11N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ON THE N GULF
NEAR 28N90W. SURFACE OBS AND SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOW
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT EVIDENT ACROSS THE
GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF
FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 83W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF. A VERY SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 82W-85W. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS
DUE TO THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1002 MB TROPICAL STORM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS FROM
PUERTO RICO TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SECTION ABOVE. OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CENTER OF THE STORM...10-
15 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N
COLOMBIA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 71W-74W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA S OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-86W MAINLY DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER JAMAICA. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW TO MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RESIDUAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE RAINBANDS OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL
OF CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DESCRIBED IN SPECIAL FEATURES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEYOND MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION N OF HISPANIOLA...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N BETWEEN 60W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF
28N. 1024 MB HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH CENTER NEAR
33N29W WITH RIDGING TO NEAR 26N60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
23N67W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT T.S. CRISTOBAL TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DIP A BIT S OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W-80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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