Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 151800

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


Hurricane Ophelia was centered near 41.6N 16.0W at 15/1500 UTC
about 550 nm ENE of the Azores, racing NE at 33 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Ophelia will be a powerful post-
tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches
Ireland on Monday. See the latest Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

A cold front across Texas will move into the Gulf of Mexico
tonight, reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche
late Mon, and then stall from Tampa Bay to 25N91W to 18N93W late
Tue. A tight pressure gradient and cool dry air associated with
the front will allow N winds funneling along the coast of Mexico
to reach minimal gale force from Tampico to Veracruz Monday into
late Tuesday, with seas reaching 8 to 13 ft.


A tropical wave in the central Atlantic along 41.5W is moving W
at 20 kt. The wave has a distinct surface trough, weak troughing
at 700 mb, and moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N-11N
between 40W-45W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic along 50W is moving W at
10 kt. The wave has a distinct surface trough, weak troughing at
700 mb, and moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-14N between 45W-51W.

A tropical wave in the E Caribbean and SW N Atlc along 68W with
a nearby 1012 mb low near 20N66.5W is moving W at 15 kt. The
wave has a distinct surface and 700 mb trough, and abundant
moisture noted on SSMI TPW imagery. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 17N-22N between 61W-66W.


The monsoon trough near Africa is E of 20W. The ITCZ axis
extends from 09N20W to 08N41W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N-09N between 13W-29W.



A well defined surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico along
93W. Scattered showers are along a line from 24N93W to 27N95W.
Mostly fair weather and 10-15 kt winds are over the remainder of
the Gulf. Expect the surface trough to move W, and a strong cold
front to move off the coast of Texas Monday morning with strong
northerly winds behind it. Gale force winds will develop south
of 24N west of the front. See special features above.


A tropical wave axis extends S of the Mona Passage with minimal
convection. A 1008 mb surface low is along the coast of Colombia
near 10N76W with random showers. Scattered showers are near the
coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Expect the tropical wave to
produce increased convection in the central Caribbean during the
next 24 hours.


Isolated showers over the island are expected to increase today
due to diurnal heating and a tropical wave along 68W as it moves
west. Expect scattered showers to persist overnight, mostly due
to the tropical wave.


A surface trough extends NE from the tropical wave along 68W
from 23N68W to 30N65W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is east of the trough axis to 64W from 23N-30N. An upper level
low centered near 27N76W is enhancing scattered showers north of
the Bahamas from 23N-27N between 71W-74W. A stationary front S
and SW of Ophelia extends from 32N20W to 29N24W to 28N45W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front between 30W-40W.

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