


Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
067 AXNT20 KNHC 060543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jul 6 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between a 1036 mb high pressure system located north of the Azores and low pressures in northwest Africa will continue to support gale-force NE winds with severe gusts and 7-11 ft seas, for the waters between the Canary Islands and vicinity waters until at least 07/0900 UTC according to Meteo France. For more details, please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern tropical wave is along 21W from 03-16N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed via satellite from 07-11N between the W Coast of Africa and 25W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 35W from 02N-18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Only isolated showers are seen near the southern part of the wave axis, where it crosses the monsoon trough. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 52W from 04N-16N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Very isolated weak showers are observed near the southern part of the wave axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W extending from extreme southern Haiti southward to inland central Colombia. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 13N to the coast of Venezuela between 70-78W. The far northern extent of a tropical wave along 93W extends into the Bay of Campeche, but with no notable convection or other impacts noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the west coast of Africa near 12N17W, and extends southwestward to near 10N20W, and then west-southwestward to 07N42W. The ITCZ then is analyzed from 07N42W to 08N50W where it is broken by a tropical wave, with the ITCZ then resuming at 08N52W and ending at the coastal border of French Guyana near 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is observed via satellite from 06-09N between 25-31W. All other convection along these features is associated with tropical waves moving across the Atlantic. The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed in the far SW Caribbean S of 12N. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper-level low is helping to initiate scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms over some sections of the far eastern Gulf. Elsewhere, a weak 1016 mb high is analyzed over the central Gulf near 27N92W. Its associated gradient is allowing for gentle to locally moderate winds across the vast majority of the Gulf, with the exception of the SE Bay of Campeche where recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh E winds. Seas across the Gulf range from 1-3 ft. For the forecast, a surface trough will persist across the NE Gulf through Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along this trough over the waters near Florida. Weak high pressure will then prevail into early next week. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through early next week as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure of 1024 mb is analyzed well north of the area. The pressure gradient between this high and the Colombia Low is driving fresh to locally strong trades and seas of 4-7 ft over portions of the south-central and SE Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail across much of the central and eastern Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 1-4 ft are over the remainder of the basin. Satellite imagery shows scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection over most of Central America from Guatemala southward. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, with the exception of moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France for the Canary Islands. Convergent southerly winds are generating widely scattered moderate convection from the NW Bahamas northward to beyond 31N between 71W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Convergent surface winds also appear to be generating scattered moderate convection over the Florida Straits as well. A surface trough extends from near 29N61W to 23N64W. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers in the vicinity of this surface trough. Tropical Storm Chantal has lifted north of the discussion waters. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of 4-8 ft persist in the wake of Chantal across areas N of 27N between 75W and the E coast of Florida. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge stemming from a 1036 mb high N of the area is sustaining a trade wind regime across much of the Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds and 7-11 ft seas are seen N of 22N and E of 27W to the W coast of Africa. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail across areas N of 20N and E of 45W, as well as along the northern shores of the Greater Antilles and the Florida Straits. The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing moderate or weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, as Tropical Storm Chantal continues to move away from the forecast area, the Atlantic ridge will build westward toward Florida and the Bahamas. This pattern will support generally gentle to moderate winds, except for moderate to fresh winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Mon, then fresh to strong winds are expected afterwards. $$ Adams