Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 190547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 997 mb surface low is centered near 31N42W. A surface trough
extends from 31N34W to 23N34W to 17N41W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed north of 28N between 32W-44W. This activity
has become better organized since yesterday. Latest scatterometer
data depicts strong to near-gale winds prevailing mostly to the
west of the low center north of 26N between 42W-49W. This system
still has the opportunity to become a subtropical cyclone during
the next day or so before it becomes absorbed by a larger
extratropical cyclone on Thursday. Due to this, this system has a
medium chance for tropical formation during the next 48 hours.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from
07N12W to 03N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 03N15W to the South American coast near 02S43W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails along and south of the ITCZ between
10W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 31N70W
producing surface ridging reaching the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough was analyzed over the eastern Gulf from 28N84W to 24N86W.
Another trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula at this time.
The cloudiness and scattered convection present over the southern
half of the basin is supported by upper-level diffluence generated
to the east of an upper-level trough/low that prevails over
eastern Mexico. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow across the basin with locally fresh easterly
winds prevailing south of 24N. Expect a similar weather pattern
during the next 24 hours as the upper-level low will move east
across the western Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper-level trough/low that prevails over the western Gulf of
Mexico is also enhancing convection across the western Caribbean
as a diffluent flow prevails west of 77W. This activity is
affecting portions of the Yucatan Channel, Central America, west
and central Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of an upper-level ridge with
axis along 70W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
tradewinds across the basin with the strongest winds along the
coast of Colombia. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cloudiness and isolated showers prevail across the island. Expect
over the next 24 hours for scattered showers to advect over the
island from the east with the tradewind flow. Convection will
also form due to local instability.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 31N70W. Its
ridge extends to 53W. A 997 mb surface low is centered over the
central Atlantic near 31N42W. Please refer to the Special Features
section above for more details. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin. Expect over the next 24 hours for the
Special Feature`s low to move northeast. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA




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