Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 271733

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W along 4N21W to 4N26W where it transitions
to the ITCZ and continues along 7N38W to 8N48W. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 3N to
the coast of southwest Africa between 3W-11W. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are from 3N-8N between 11W-



An upper trough over the west Atlantic is supporting a weakening
cold front that extends from the west Atlantic into the
southeast Gulf across Florida near Miami to 25N86W. Scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are in the Straits
of Florida west of 82W including the Florida Keys. A surface
trough is in the southwest Gulf extending from off Tampico near
23N97W along 21N95W to 19N93W generating scattered showers
within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. A surface ridge
dominates the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1027
mb high over western Virginia. The front will wash out over the
southeast Gulf by tonight. The surface trough over the southwest
Gulf will move inland over Mexico tonight. Strong to near gale
force winds will develop over the northwest Gulf tonight, then
spreading eastward on Monday ahead of a cold front that will
enter and stall over the far northwest Gulf Monday night. The
front will drift back inland early Tuesday, then be reinforced
and move back into the Gulf Tuesday night.


The upper trough over the west Atlantic dips south over the
northwest Caribbean with near zonal westerly flow aloft across
the remainder of the basin. the monsoon trough has returned to
the southwest Caribbean extending from Colombia near 10N75W
through a 1009 mb low near 11N77W continuing across the Costa
Rica/Nicaragua border and into the east Pacific region.
Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from
10N-15N between 74W-76W and from 10N-14N west of 83W to inland
over Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Isolated showers dot the
remainder of the area south of 15N between 63W-74W. A surface
trough is expected to set up tonight and shift from the Mona
Passage to northwest Venezuela coast on Monday then continue
east to Puerto Rico to the ABC Islands on Tuesday.


Isolated showers are developing over the Dominican Republic this
afternoon, with skies mostly clear over most of Haiti. Afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible today.
The surface trough north of Haiti will sweep eastward and
coupled with lingering moisture could produce showers and
possible thunderstorms across the island Monday and the
the Dominican Republic Tuesday.


An upper trough is moving across the west Atlantic supporting a
cold front that extends across Bermuda along 28N75W then across
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico near Miami. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm east of the front
east of 76W. To the south is a surface trough that extends from
25N70W to off the north coast of Haiti near 20N73W. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 20N-26N
between 66W-73W with scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms south of 22N to over Cuba between 73W-76W. A
shortwave upper trough in the central Atlantic along 39W,
supporting 1014 mb low near 32N39W with a cold front extending
from the low along 28N38W to 24N44W where it dissipates to
23N52W. A weak 1015 mb low is centered near 24N39W generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 45/60 nm of
a line from 29N35W to 25N40W. In the Tropical Atlantic is a 1012
mb low near 17N40W with a surface trough extending to 11N50W.
The west Atlantic cold front reach from 32N60W 25N65W to the
central Bahamas Monday. The west Atlantic surface trough will
continue to drift east. The next cold front will move off the
Georgia coast later in the week.

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