National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
AXNT20 KNHC 122322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N20W TO 01S30W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AT 03S41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N15W TO 02N20W TO 03N30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF EARLY THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM A SHALLOW MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS MOVING E ABOUT 25 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. AT THE
SURFACE BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 29N90W TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE GULF. SOUTHEAST TO S
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE NW
GULF IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN S OF ABOUT 19N. A
WESTERLY JET IS LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 21N80W TO 22N76W WITH WINDS
ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT
IS FORECAST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE BASIN
IS VOID OF ANY SURFACE FEATURES. IN THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 70W AND 78W WINDS ARE NE TO E 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SEAS 8
TO 13 FT IN NE SWELL.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE JET MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION EXTENDS FROM
22N76W TO 23N65W TO 22N55W AND THEN WEAKENS. FLOW ALOFT AS
INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS DIFFLUENT FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF 23N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W...MOVING E ABOUT
20 KNOTS...WITH THE AXIS LOCATED THROUGH 32N52W TO 23N57W. NEXT
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED FROM 32N37W TO
25N39W. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT
15 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 28N23W AND IS MOVING E
ABOUT 10 KNOTS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE E SIDE
OF THE CIRCULATION. A TROPICAL JET IS LOCATED THROUGH 10N45W TO
16N35W TO 15N20W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 17N WITH WINDS AS HIGH
AS 50 TO 60 KNOTS. A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED AT 28N25W WITH A
TROUGH LOCATED SW TO 20N35W. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT
IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N60W TO 26N73W TO 23N76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB