Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 151705
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N17W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W TO 4N40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FL AND THE EASTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE FL PANHANDLE HAS AN AXIS THAT ENTERS THE
EASTERN GULF. THIS IS SUPPORTING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TX.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW GULF WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN RETURN FLOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 17N77W TO 10N82W. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KT ARE NW OF THE SHEAR LINE. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE
IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE SHEAR LINE. LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LINE IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE AXIS. A
1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N76W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO
17N71W. THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS
DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 125 NM OF EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH
WHILE REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE REMNANT
SHEAR LINE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

EXTENSIVE MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
IS PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THAT TIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER THE NW ATLANTIC TO 31N53W TO 23N58W TO
18N63W AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50NM
NW OF THE FRONT AND 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N33W SUPPORTS A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 34W AND
38W. A 1039 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES
DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC E OF 35W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE E TO NEAR 30N50W TO 22N55W WITH CONVECTION. THE
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 22N WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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