Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 161749

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
149 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


A gale low is centered over the central Atlantic near 35N49W. An
associated cold front enters forecast waters near 31N43W. Gale
force winds are within 300 nm E of front N of 30N. Gale force
winds are also within 420 nm W of front N of 29.5N. Winds are
forecast to diminish below gale this evening. Please refer to the
high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near
06N11W and continues to 01N14W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone continues from 01N14W to 01N35W to 1S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is S of the Monsoon Trough from 01N-06N between 01W-
07W. Isolated moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 02S-04N
between 17W-51W.



A 1029 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N68W
producing surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. 10-20 kt SE
flow is over the Gulf with strongest winds over the Straits of
Florida. An embedded surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche
from 21N94W to 18N95W. The trough is void of precipitation.
Elsewhere, radar imagery shows isolated showers over the SE Gulf
to include the Straits of Florida. More scattered showers are
inland over S Louisiana. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is
over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Upper level moisture is over
most of the Gulf. Expect over the next 24 hours for showers to
increase over the Straits of Florida.


10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest
winds S of SW Cuba, and the strongest winds along the coast of
Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is inland over Venezuela
and Colombia. Scattered showers are over most of the Caribbean
except over the NW Caribbean where mostly fair weather is noted.
Radar imagery confirms scattered showers S of Puerto Rico.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland over Panama, Costa Rica,
E Nicaragua, and E Honduras. In the upper levels, a broad ridge
is over the Caribbean Sea with axis along 70W. Broken high clouds
covers the central and E Caribbean. Strong subsidence is over the
NW Caribbean. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.


Presently scattered showers are over the island. Expect over the
next 24 hours for more scattered showers to advect over the
island from the east with the tradewind flow.


A 1029 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N68W. A
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N43W to 24N50W to
21N60W to 21N68W. Widely scattered moderate convection is N of 25N
between 37W-42W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
remainder of the front. A 1018 mb high is centered near 30N31W. A
1011 mb low is centered W of the Canary Islands near 27N20W. Of
note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
central Atlantic N of 20N between 35W-65W supporting the cold
front. Expect the over the next 24 hours for the Atlantic front
to move E and produce convection over the Atlantic N of 20N
between 35W-40W.

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