Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 251054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N56W 12N58W 07N60W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 59W AND
62W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PLEASE READ THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVES MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W FROM 17N IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE EARLIER SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 96W AND 100W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N15W AT THE COAST OF MAURITANIA...TO
17N23W IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 15N28W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N23W TO 08N34W TO 05N38W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N38W TO 04N44W TO 03N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO
11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 24N100W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA...INCLUDING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE MAIN
TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW PASSES THROUGH
33N78W TO 30N81W. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAROMETRIC PRESSURE PATTERN
CONTINUES FROM FLORIDA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N69W
TO 31N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N74W INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL GEORGIA...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 32N70W TO 23N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE 32N60W TO 23N80W LINE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.67 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIDELY MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ALONG
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
95W/96W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FORMED NEAR 19N80W TO THE NORTHWEST OF
JAMAICA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS IN SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS....CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS...
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 11 FEET...FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ADDITIONAL AREAS
OF WIND ARE...ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 8 FEET TO 9 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 82W AND
83W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.18 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING
OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A PART OF A
RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CUTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TOWARD
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW. TWO
INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD INTO AND INCLUDING THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD...
UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM TO
THE EAST...AND WITHIN 500 NM TO THE WEST...OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 33N48W...TO 26N51W...TO 20N54W...TO 16N59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 47W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N60W TO 32N70W TO
23N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 23N34W TO
12N33W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 24N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N36W TO 30N44W...TO 23N59W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY BEYOND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR NEAR 23N98W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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