Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 180605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A deep layer trough is digging through the area that is from
western Cuba into eastern Honduras. A surface trough is along
25N68W 22N77W in the Atlantic Ocean and across the Bahamas,
to 19N80W, and NE Nicaragua. Convective precipitation:
numerous strong from 15N to 19N between 72W and 75W, from Haiti
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
15N to Cuba between 76W and 81W. Other rainshowers are possible
from 15N southward from 71W westward, and in the Atlantic Ocean in
broken to overcast multilayered clouds from 20N to 28N between 55W
and 80W. The 17/1200 UTC Kingston, Jamaica rawinsonde indicated
precipitable water values of 2.3 inches. Serious flooding already
has been reported in Haiti and Jamaica. Animated satellite imagery
and model guidance suggest that this system only will move very
slowly NE during the next 24 hours. Heavy rainfall thus will
remain possible in Eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. Life-
threatening flooding and mudslides remain a strong possibility.
Please pay attention to advisories and bulletins from local
meteorology offices, emergency management services, and other
governmental agencies.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas that are called: AGADIR and CANARIAS. The
OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid
until 19/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a local gale
in AGADIR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 10N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: any
precipitation is in the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W from 10N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 06N between 50W
and 59W, in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of Brazil,
French Guiana, Suriname, and Guyana.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 13N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: warming cloud
top temperatures and weakening precipitation in Colombia and NW
Venezuela from 06N to 11N between Lake Maracaibo and 76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W, 12N22W, and 09N23W. The ITCZ continues from 09N23W
to 05N27W 04N34W and 04N44W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 07N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spanning the entire
Gulf of Mexico. High level clouds are moving in the coastal areas
from the deep South of Texas toward the Florida Panhandle.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery elsewhere.

...VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KGRY, and KVOA: 2 to 3, and mist.
KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KMDJ, and KMIS: 3 TO 5 and mist.
KVOA: 3 and haze.

VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FLORIDA: Crestview: light rain.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in the
coastal waters of Haiti. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
elsewhere from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the Atlantic
Ocean between 67W, just to the north of the Mona Passage and 80W.
It has been raining in this area, near Hispaniola and Jamaica and
SE Cuba during the last 24 hours. It is possible that more
rainfall in this area may reach land more and more in Hispaniola,
possibly causing flooding and mudslides. Please pay attention to
advisories and bulletins from local meteorology offices and other
governmental agencies.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 80W
eastward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, moving into the area from the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough extends from 26N84W in the SE corner of the Gulf
of Mexico, across NW Cuba, to 20N80W and 14N81W. a 1009 mb low
pressure center that is near 20N83W, to 18N81W and 13N81W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 11N to 16N
between 80W and 84W in the coastal waters of Nicaragua.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.
Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more
information.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto
Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 24 hours, followed by
westerly wind during day two. The current trough that is in the
westernmost part of the Caribbean Sea will linger for at least
another 24 hours to 48 hours. The upper level ridge will remain to
the east of the trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows
that a short-wave trough will move across Hispaniola early during
day one of the 48-hour forecast period. It will continue for much
if not all of the forecast period. Expect cyclonic wind flow
during the time of the presence of the trough. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that SE and S wind flow will move across
Hispaniola during the first 24 hours, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-
Hispaniola east-to-west oriented ridge. Expect SE wind flow during
day two, with an inverted trough that will be across Hispaniola.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N44W, to 28N47W. A cold
front passes through 32N50W to 31N51W. The cold front is
dissipating from 31N51W to 30N55W. Convective precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
cover the area from 20N northward between 34W and 55W.

A surface ridge 32N40W to 26N50W 24N60W, and 24N70W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is to the NW of the Atlantic Ocean cold
front. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 32N17W, through
32N21W 25N30W, and 22N40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT


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