Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 161807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Gert is centered near 37.4N 65.7W at 16/1500 UTC or
about 308 nm N of Bermuda moving NE at 22 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt
with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 35N-42N between 60W-67W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

The 1010 mb low embedded on a tropical wave centered at 14N35W
shows signs of gradual development. There is a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

A 1010 mb low is centered over the tropical Atlantic near 14N47W,
moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave in a very moist area based on
SSMI TPW imagery and is also reflected at 700 mb. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is W of the low center from
12N-16N between 49W-53W. The low shows signs of gradual
development. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1010 mb low is off the coast of W Africa near 10N19W embedded in
the monsoon trough. A tropical wave is E of this low, still inland
over W Africa along 15W, moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave in a
very moist area based on SSMI TPW imagery and has a well
pronounced 700 mb trough. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
radius of the low.

A tropical wave is in the tropical Atlantic with an embedded 1010
mb low pressure located near 14N35W. The wave axis extends from
19N34W to the low to 09N35W moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave in a
very moist area based on SSMI TPW imagery and has a well
pronounced 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 13N-16N between 37W-40W.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from
22N59W to 16N61W to 09N62W, moving W at 25 kt. The wave has
Saharan dry air and dust N and W of the wave envirnment. Scattered
moderate convection is over the Leeward Islands from 14N-20N
between 57W-63W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from
W Cuba at 22N81W through Panama to the E Pacific at 05N81W,
moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave is in a region of low to moderate
vertical wind shear and dry air subsidence, which is limiting
precipitation to scattered showers within 120 nm of the axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
a 1010 mb low near 10N19W to 09N22W to 13N30W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone axis extends from 11N39W to 13N46W. The ITCZ
resumes W of a low, from 12N50W to 11N55W to 14N60W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 06N-10N
between 12W-16W. Similar convection is from 07N-11N between 23W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N84W.
5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are noted around the high. 15-20 kt SE
surface winds are over the W Gulf W of 90W. Radar imagery shows
scattered showers over the E Gulf and Straits of Florida, E of
83W. Airmass thunderstorms are now from Louisiana to the Florida
Panhandle. Similar thunderstorms are over the Florida Peninsula.
In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W
Gulf near 23N93W. An upper level high is centered over N Florida
near 30N82W. Expect the surface high to remain quasi-stationary
over the Gulf for the next 24 hours. Expect more airmass
thunderstorms thursday during maximum heating. A surface trough
will develop each evening across the Yucatan peninsula shifting W
into the Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours. Locally
higher winds can be expected in the vicinity of the trough axis.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. The eastern
extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection over Costa Rica and Panama.
Expect the tropical waves to move W with convection over the next
24 hours. Also expect continued convection the SW Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently fair weather is over Hispaniola. Expect convection over
E Hispaniola in 24 hours due to the approach of a tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Besides the tropical system mentioned above, a 1026 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 33N44W with surface
ridging extending WSW to the N Bahamas. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorm are over the N Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa




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