Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
AXNT20 KNHC 171128
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
628 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front passes through is along 32N58W to 25N68W to 22N78W.
SW gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 17
feet, are to the north of 30N within 120 nm to the east of the
cold front. Expect these conditions for the next 24 hours or so.
Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and
the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.
The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 07N13W 02N17W, and to the equator along 21W. The
ITCZ continues from the equator along 21W to 02S25W, 03S26W, and
05S35W. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong
from 01N to 07N between 11W and 15W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 10W eastward, and from 03N23W 03N36W 08N50W 08N60W
...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is in
West Texas. A trough extends from the Texas cyclonic center to
Mexico near 20N105W. Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind
flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1020
mb high pressure center is near 28N89W, just off the coast of SE
A surface trough is along the coast of Mexico, from 24N97W to
20N96W, to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are
possible from 28N southward from 90W westward.
...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...
MVFR: KMZG, KVAF, and KVOA.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...
TEXAS: IFR in Brownsville. rain and possible thunder, either
current or temporarily stopped for the moment, from the Deep
South of Texas to the area of Victoria/Port Lavaca/Palacios.
LOUISIANA: VFR. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR
in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: MVFR in Perry. LIFR at the Tampa
...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS CUBA, INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
Deep layer cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 60W westward. A cold front passes through 32N58W
in the Atlantic Ocean, to 24N70W, to Cuba near 22N80W, to 22N82W
and 19N85W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A NE-to-SW
oriented surface trough is along the coast from the NE corner of
the Yucatan Peninsula to southern Belize. Convective precipitation:
the 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 17/0000
UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.71 in Bermuda with the
cold front. in the Atlantic Ocean: Scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 31N northward between 50W and 57W. Isolated moderate
elsewhere to the NW of the line that passes through 32N45W 27N50W
24N60W 20N75W. Rainshowers are possible in the Caribbean Sea from
16N northward from 75W westward.
...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire
Caribbean Sea. High level clouds are moving through the NW corner,
across the Greater Antilles, and moving from South America into
the Caribbean Sea from 77W eastward.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery elsewhere across the area.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea, in
areas of broken low level clouds.
Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area. Anticyclonic
wind flow is present from 600 mb to 800 mb. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo/ La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR.
Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the first 12 hours of the 48-hour
forecast period. W-to-NW wind flow will move across the area
during the rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the first
30 hours or so of the 48-hour forecast period. An anticyclonic
circulation center will move on top of Hispaniola after the first
30 hours, and it will spread anticyclonic wind flow across the
area during the rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700
mb shows that broad anticyclonic wind flow will cover Hispaniola
for the first 24 hours or so, followed by NE wind flow for the
rest of the time.
...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle level to upper level trough passes through the Madeira
Archipelago, to 25N24W and 16N32W to 07N38W. The southernmost
point of a cold front reaches 34N18W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers from 10N northward between 20W and 60W.
A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that
is near 36N31W, to 32N36W 26N43W, to 22N50W. The ridge continues
from 22N50W, across the Greater Antilles, to a 1017 mb high
pressure center that is near 20N82W in the NW corner of the
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