Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 210002

805 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological


The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 11N16W then continues to 07N19W to 06N25W
where the ITCZ begins. The ITCZ then extends to 05N32W to 03N36W
to 02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N E of
20W. Isolated showers are elsewhere from 02S to 09N between 22W
and 42W and from 07N to 16N between 45W and 62W.



A stationary front extends across southern Louisiana, then along
Texas adjacent waters from 29N92W to 25N97W. A diffluent
environment aloft in the NE Gulf between westerly flow and the
base of an upper trough over the lower Mississippi Valley along
with moisture inflow from the Caribbean support clusters of
heavy showers and thunderstorms N of 26N E of 91W. Fair weather
is elsewhere. These thunderstorms generated an outflow boundary
or gust front from approximately 30N83W to 27N90W with fresh to
near gale force winds ahead of it as indicated by the latest
scatterometer pass. Except for the aforementioned region, SE
gentle to moderate flow covers the basin ahead of the front
while NE winds of the same magnitude are W of the frontal
boundary. Within 60 NM off the northern Yucatan Peninsula, a
tighter pressure gradient continue to support moderate to fresh
easterly flow. The front will weaken across the NW Gulf waters
while the portion N of the area stalls along the northern Gulf
coast through early Sunday. Then near sunrise the front will
transition into a cold front to move across NE waters and the
Florida peninsula through Monday.


High pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend S-SW across
the northern Caribbean, thus generating a tight pressure
gradient that support fresh to near gale force winds S of 16N
between 68W and 80W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to
strong trades continue in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trades
prevail across the reminder basin. A diffluent environment aloft
between ridging over the western Caribbean and a trough over the
central and eastern basin along with moisture inflow from the
tropical Atlantic support showers along the Cuba mountain range
and over SW Hispaniola. Isolated showers are likely for the
windward islands as high moisture from the tropical Atlantic
continue to enter the Caribbean. Winds will diminish in the
south central basin on Sunday near sunrise.


Scattered showers are across SW Hispaniola being supported by
moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic by SE to S flow and a
diffluent environment aloft. These conditions are forecast to
persist through the remainder weekend.


The remnants of a squall line continue to support scattered
showers within 90 NM off the Florida coast S of 29N. Farther
east, the tail of a frontal boundary stalls from 30N63W to
27N75W and support scattered to isolated showers N of 26N
between 65W and 74W. Otherwise, the remainder basin continues to
be dominated by surface ridging anchored by a 1028 mb high SW of
the Azores islands.

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