Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 180508

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1207 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

A developing area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen
offshore of the mid-Atlc coast by Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The associated cold front is expected to extend into the SW North
Atlc region generating near gale to gale force SW to W winds
generally N of 29N between 63W-68W. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
02N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 02N22W
to the Equator near 32W. Isolated moderate convection is from
04N-06N between 08W-12W...and S of 04N between 19W-28W.


A middle to upper level ridge prevails over the Gulf basin this
evening with axis extending along 84W. Primarily southwest to
westerly flow aloft is noted on the western periphery of the
ridging with scattered cloudiness and possible isolated showers
occurring across the far NW Gulf waters focused along a stationary
front analyzed from SW Louisiana along the SE Texas Gulf coast to
NE Mexico near 27N102W. Otherwise...the western periphery of a
surface ridge prevails with gentle to moderate SE winds expected
through Wednesday night.

Overall tranquil conditions persist across the Caribbean basin
this evening as water vapor imagery indicates upper level dry air
and strong subsidence to the E of a middle to upper level
trough over the NE Caribbean with axis extending from 26N60W to a
base near 15N68W. Latest scatterometer data depicts generally
moderate to fresh trades across the basin with slightly stronger
winds occurring within close proximity to the coast of Colombia
between S of 14N between 73W-77W. Satellite imagery shows
isolated trade wind showers across Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and
the US/UK Virgin Islands...while the remainder of the basin
remains generally precipitation-free. Similar weather conditions
are forecast through Friday as surface ridging remains anchored to
the N across the SW North Atlc region.

Fresh NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal
waters this evening. Winds will diminish slightly on Wednesday
into Thursday as the ridging to the N weakens. Isolated showers
are forecast to continue through Thursday as the E-NE flow

A broad 1025 mb surface high centered near 30N69W extends
influence across much of the SW North Atlc generally W of 50W. A
slight weakness in the ridging is evident as a cold front enters
the discussion area in the central Atlc near 32N36W and extends
W-SW to 28N40W to 25N53W to 24N63W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front N of
30N. Isolated showers are occurring elsewhere within 90 nm either
side of the front S of 30N between 36W-63W. Farther east...
another weakening boundary is analyzed as a surface trough from
32N28W to 27N33W to 23N36W. Isolated showers are possible within
60 nm either side of the trough axis. Finally...E-SE of the
Windward Islands...a surface trough analyzed from 06N57W to 14N55W
is providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms from
05N-18N between 45W-62W.

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