Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 291103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MINIMUM GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...AND THOSE
MINIMUM GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
SEA HEIGHTS IN GENERAL ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 18
FEET DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/54W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS...PASSING TO THE WEST
OF JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM
5N TO 8N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL
PLAINS OF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...AND IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE
RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG 87W/88W...FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IT PASSES THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN HONDURAS...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N
BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W AND
92W...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N18W 8N23W TO
6N37W AND 4N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND
23W...AND WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N31W 6N37W 9N44W
9N52W 9N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST...TO 25N93W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH
COVERS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. A STATIONARY FRONT
CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 83W AND
86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM BELIZE AND
NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N/18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND
NORTHWESTERN CUBA ALONG 80W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N72W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 500 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 27N72W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL COVER THE
AREA WITH A TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N72W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N/18N AND
THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD TO 31N/32N BETWEEN 65W AND
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N
TO 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.

THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES 32N34W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N40W TO 30N49W TO 32N54W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
TO 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO
29N50W 30N54W BEYOND 32N56W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N21W...TO 29N27W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N44W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 30N59W...EVENTUALLY TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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