Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 141205

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
that exists between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern South America,
will continue to support gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia through the week. The sea heights associated with these
gale-force wind conditions are forecast to range from 12 feet to
15 feet, subsiding some later in the week. Please read the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 06N19W, 05N22W, and 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from
02N25W, crossing the Equator along 27W, to 02S33W, and 04S38W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
03N southward from 06W eastward. isolated moderate to locally
strong from 05N southward between 09W and 22W, and from 10N
southward between 37W and 52W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Upper level SW wind flow is
to the SE of the line that passes through 28N13W 25N24W 16N50W



A stationary front, that is across the northern and western
Gulf, will weaken into a trough this morning. E to SE winds from
a ridge extending from the Atlantic into the central Gulf will
prevail over the basin through Sat. A weak cold front will stall
over the northern Gulf on Sun.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Strong trade winds will continue east of 80W,
including Atlc passages, through Thu morning. Winds to minimal
gale force will persist near the coast of Colombia through Sun
night. Winds and seas outside the central Caribbean will gradually
subside Thu through Sat.


A frontal boundary is along 31N/32N from 60W westward, to
a 1028 mb low pressure center that is near 32N78W. A stationary
front continues from the 1028 mb low center, to Florida near
28N81W, and then westward into the northern sections of the Gulf
of Mexico. A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 29N69W.

A ridge, that is along 29N, will remain in place through the
weekend. A cold front in the far NW waters will stall and
dissipate by tonight. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of
25N, with moderate to fresh winds expected south of 25N through
Sunday. A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on

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