Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 102357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the central Atlc extends from 17N33W to an
embedded 1011 mb near 11N34W to 06N34W. It is moving W at 10 kt.
The wave is in a moist area as seen by SSMI TPW imagery. The wave
has low to moderate vertical wind shear and has extensive Saharan
dry air and dust to the west of its environment. Scattered showers
are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave in the E Caribbean extends from 15N66W to inland
Venezuela near 06N69W, moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave is in a
moist area as seen by SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a region of
low vertical wind shear. A pronounced 700 mb trough is over the E
Caribbean. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over Venezuela from 06N-11N between 68W-72W. Scattered showers are
elsewhere within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave in the W Caribbean extends from 17N87W across
Honduras to EPAC waters near 07N88W, moving W at 10 kt. Shallow
moisture is noted on SSMI TPW. Upper level divergent flow support
is also noted. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
E of the wave axis from 10N-17N between 83W-89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
12N30W to 06N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 06N42W to 05N52W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is along the coast of W Africa from 10N-15N between 13W-18W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-15N between 13W-18W, and
from 06N-10N between 29W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The remnants of former Tropical Storm Franklin is a 1006 mb low
centered over Mexico near 20N100W. Scattered moderate convection
is inland over Mexico from 19N-25N between 97W-104W. Elsewhere, a
surface trough is over S Florida and the Straits of Florida from
26N80W to 24N82W. Isolated moderate convection remains over S
Florida, the Straits of Florida, and W Cuba. In addition,
scattered moderate convection is over the N Gulf of Mexico N of
28N between the Florida Panhandle and SW Louisiana. In the upper
levels, an upper level high is centered over N Mexico near
29N101W. NE upper level flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Expect in
24 hours for a 1019 mb surface high to form over the NE Gulf near
28N87W. Also expect convection to persist over the N Gulf and the
E Gulf especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean basin with most
convection inland. See above. Elsewhere the eastern extent of the
E Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate
convection over the SW Caribbean, Costa Rica, and Panama, S of
13N. Further N, widely scattered moderate convection is over E
Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. Scattered showers are
also over the E Caribbean E of 63W. Of note in the upper levels,
an upper level low is centered over NE Honduras near 16N85W
enhancing convection. Expect the tropical waves to move W with
convection and showers. Also expect convection to persist over the
SW Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection prevails over the island. In 24
hours, an area of low pressure, currently NE of the Leeward
Islands will move to NE Hispaniola with additional convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N78W to S Florida
near 26N80W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-30N between
77W-79W. Scattered showers are over the N Bahamas. A 1015 mb low
is centered N of the Leeward Islands near 20N61W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 20N-23N between 60W-62W, moving W. A
1016 mb Low is centered over the Central Atlantic near 30N39W. A
stationary front extends SW from the low to 26N45W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the front. Of note in the upper
levels, an upper level low is also located N of the Leeward
Islands near 24N59W enhancing showers and convection. Another
upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 30N39W making
the system a deep low. Expect over the next 24 hours for showers
and convection to persist over the the W Atlantic and Florida.
Expect the showers and convection N of the Leeward Islands to move
W. Also expect the surface low at 30N39W to dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa




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