Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 142359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 25.4N 52.1W AT 14/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 747 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 12
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND EDOUARD COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 51W-56W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 21N16W TO
9N19W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LONG LOOP SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 10N19W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N38W TO 10N39W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N39W. THIS
SYSTEM COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY AND
A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 23N87W TO 12N88W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
10N22W TO 9N40W TO 8N44W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N44W TO
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 22W-43W...AND FROM 6N-
10N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N95W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N90W TO THE TIP OF S TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N93W. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...NE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTHWARD...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
GULF SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE W GULF AND MERGE. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF SHOULD LESSEN WHILE THE W
GULF BECOMES MORE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ARE THE DOMINATE FEATURES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
75W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY SINCE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N69W MOVING SLOWLY
W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. A
1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N68W MOVING W. THE
BASE OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 33N34W TO
BEYOND 32N42W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N69W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 63W-71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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