Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N25W 4N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 13W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A
REMNANT...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF
EXTENDING FROM 29N85W TO 26N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
NW GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 29N95W
TO ACROSS TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE
AREA N OF 24N W OF 92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WILL
MOVE E AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OVER NE MEXICO WILL
ENTER THE GULF EARLY THU THEN SHIFT NE AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
MOBILE BAY EARLY FRI WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS THE W GULF.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY SAT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF INTO SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA FROM
17N-19N BETWEEN 66W-73W...FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 76W-82W...AND
FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 82W-87W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SAT. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SAT AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S PORTION OF THE ISLAND INDUCED
BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD
CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN THE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
STARTING ON SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE W ATLC WITH W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N58W INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE
TO THE E WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF
LINE FROM 25N52W TO 31N59W. TO THE S IS A WEAKENING 1016 MB LOW
NEAR 26N59W AND TO THE E IS A WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR 29N50W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
21N61W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W GIVING THE
LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGING. ONE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA TO 28N71W AND A
SECOND BROADER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB
HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC OFF
NE FLORIDA THU MORNING REACHING FROM 31N70W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEFORE SHIFTING E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH FRI. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA EARLY SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.