Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 211112
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 73.5W AND 77.5W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL THEN PULSE AGAIN AT
NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 08N13W ALONG 4N16W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR AT 25W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-
05N BETWEEN 01W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO...THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND THE WESTERN GULF...WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SW
FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE N CAROLINA COAST HAS
AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS PRODUCING S TO
SE FLOW BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THIS MORNING.
S TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF ON SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC
AND TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES ACROSS
HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N75W AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO COSTA RICA NEAR
10N83W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN
NW OF THE FRONT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE N CAROLINA COAST AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA IS
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ISLAND
THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND TODAY EVEN AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ALONG 70W AND IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N56W TO 26N61W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
W OF THE BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE 1040
MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 37N36W DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THE FRONTS WILL REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH
TODAY AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A NEW
COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE INTO THE W ATLC OFF THE SE US COAST ON
MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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