Tropical Weather Discussion
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761
AXNT20 KNHC 042340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SW PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 21N90W TO 16N92W. THESE WINDS ARE INDUCED
BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N38W TO
01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
WITH BASE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 21N90W TO 16N92W. THIS TROUGH COUPLED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 20N. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SW GULF MAINLY S OF 24N. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 24N WHILE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS THE SE
GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TO THE NE OF PUERTO RICO...A BROAD MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N60W.
THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ALSO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IS
ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION AND ENHANCING WINDS. THE SURFACE LOW
NE OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W APPROACHING THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE NE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS GENERATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW...CENTERED TO
THE NE OF PUERTO RICO...WILL MOVE W APPROACHING THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY N OF OUR AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 28N AND W OF 79W. TO
THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED TO THE NE OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 20N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N58W TO
THE LOW TO 15N60W. SCATTERED CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY
OF THESE FEATURES FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 48W-61W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N48W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION AND ENHANCING WINDS. THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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