Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 130550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
04N17W TO 02N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N21W TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF N BRAZIL NEAR
03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 01S-04N
BETWEEN 16W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC WATERS
EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL INTO THE GULF
WATERS. RIDGING IS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH E-SE WIND FLOW
RANGING FROM 10-15 KT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON
MORNING. ALOFT...WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE
BASIN. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC
OCEAN TO THE NW GULF TO SUPPORT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS N
OF 23N W OF 91W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTS HAZE AND DENSE FOG N OF
27N W OF 90W. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE NW BASIN MON AFTERNOON WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
E PACIFIC IS ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. HIGH MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT
AT THE LOWER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER STATIONARY FRONT.
WITH NO LIFTING MECHANISMS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN MAY JUST ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXCEPT FOR THE SW BASIN
S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-80W WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER.
TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-79W WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 20-25
KT. NO SURFACE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FORMER STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LIKELY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAPPENING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS.
THIS SHOWERS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY MOISTURE ALOFT BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE E PACIFIC WATERS AS WELL AS BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC
PROVIDING NE-E FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
30N49W TO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 26N59W TO 26N71W TO 22N78W. MIDDLE
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS NEARBY THE FRONT
FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 56W-73W. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N24W
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SW TO 20N30W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NE OF THE LOW CENTER N OF 27N BETWEEN 18W-
24W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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