Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 240601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W. EXPECT
SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA TO RANGE FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
.COLD FRONT FROM 30N85W TO 18.5N93W. S OF 21N W OF 94W N WINDS
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W...TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO
2N29W 3N44W AND 2N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM
2N TO 4N BETWEEN 6W AND 9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N24W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N34W 16N43W TO 7N54W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 250 NM TO 320 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 5N45W TO 7N34W 12N25W...AND BEYOND
18N15W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A 700 MB TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO
26N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS MORE INLAND IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A....ABOUT 300 NM TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE 700 MB TROUGH.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N82W 25N85W
22N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN
FLORIDA FROM 26N TO 31N...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KGVX...KXIH...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...
KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KVBS... KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...
KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT... KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...AND
KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...IN MISSISSIPPI...IN ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM PERRY
WESTWARD...RAIN AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM BROOKSVILLE TO
SARASOTA...AND TO PUNTA GORDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM 76W EASTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO IS ALONG 80W FROM CUBA NORTHWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.23 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.04 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 4N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 6N86W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO
START THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE NEAR 20N81W...MOVING TO
HISPANIOLA AT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TIME...ENDING NEAR 19N60W AT
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N59W TO HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO
25N48W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N50W TO 30N53W AND 27N59W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM
27N59W TO 27N69W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N47W TO 26N49W AND 22N51W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N44W 30N45W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 28N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 39W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N37W TO 21N42W AND
15N52W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N45W TO 13N53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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