Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 140525

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1225 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight gradient between a strong surface
ridge over the north Atlantic and lower pressures in northern
South America will continue to support gale-force winds near the
coast of Colombia through the week. Seas associated with these
gale conditions are forecast to be 12 to 15 ft, subsiding some
later in the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough extends southwestward from the coast of Africa
near 09N13W to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 04S37W.
No significant convection is related to these boundaries at this



A stationary front extends across the northern portion of the
basin from 29N83W to 28N95W to 22N95W. No significant convection
is related to the front at this time. A surface trough extends
across the Bay of Campeche from 22N92W to 19N92W. Scattered
showers prevail along the southern portion of the trough.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds over
the northern Gulf north of 27N while moderate to fresh easterly
winds are noted south of 27N. Expect for the front to continue
weakening and dissipate during the next 24 hours.


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

A surface ridge north of the area anchored by a 1031 mb high over
the west Atlantic near 30N70W reaches the northern half of the
basin, with the associated pressure gradient supporting fresh to
strong trade winds between 68W-77W. Sea heights of 12 to 15 ft are
expected near Colombia and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere. Strong winds are
also occurring through the Atlantic passages, and are expected to
continue through at least Wed. Satellite water vapor imagery
shows dry and stable atmospheric conditions across the basin. Fast
westward moving shallow trade wind showers with gusty winds are
observed over the basin.


A weak 1028 mb surface low is centered north of the area, and
extending its cold front across the west Atlantic from 31N77W to
29N81W. NO convection is observed with this front. To the east, a
broad surface high pressure over the area is associated with a
1031 mb centered over the west Atlantic near 30N70W. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds south 25N and west
of 40W, while gentle to moderate easterlies prevail elsewhere.
Expect for the front to become stationary across the central
Atlantic through Thursday. The next cold front is forecast to
move over the northwest forecast waters early this weekend.

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