Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 231728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N W
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF ALONG
25N93W TO 19N95W. GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA UNTIL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT/SAT MORNING N OF 29N
W OF 76W IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 7N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 5N20W TO 4N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM S AND 160 NM N OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC
GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WHICH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF 1010 MB LOWS OVER THE N
GULF NEAR 28N89W AND 30N86W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE
EASTERNMOST LOW TO 30N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS BETWEEN THE TWO
LOWS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERNMOST LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW
GULF. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A BAND OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS SE TO E OF THE SURFACE
LOWS AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 25N90W TO 31N83W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE LOW WILL MERGE AND
MOVE NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC US COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS E ACROSS FL AND THE SE GULF AND WILL BE OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND NW CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO E CUBA THEN
OVER THE W ATLC. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N ACROSS THE BASIN. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FORM THE W ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TO 18N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS
FAIR WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE NW OF THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W OVER PUERTO RICO MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND ON SUNDAY
FROM THE NW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA
THROUGH THE W ATLC GIVING THE AREA W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF 32N ALONG 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N76W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THREE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE FIRST IS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 31N56W TO 26N62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A SMALLER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N66W ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TO 18N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THIS
TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A FORMER SURFACE LOW THAT HAS OPENED
INTO A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 23N55W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 47W IS
INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. A 1036 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N23W IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N W OF 76W SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPANDING TO 28N W OF 73W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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