Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 240526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 72.5W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO
END AT 1200 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC WED
AND END AGAIN AT 1200 UTC WED. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 2S30W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 37W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT
28N81W TO A 1019 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N92W
TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
25N-27N BETWEEN 87W-91W. 10-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. PATCHY SEA FOG IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. 5-10 KT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF N OF 21N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-74W N OF
14N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER S GUATEMALA AND W
HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL HOWEVER SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W
TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
AZORES NEAR 39N26W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
26N27W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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