Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 210550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 1N31W 2N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-26W...WITHIN
120 NM S AND 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N87W ALONG 25N86W TO
THE W TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N E
OF 88W TO OVER N FLORIDA AND FROM 24N-27N E OF 83W TO OVER S
FLORIDA. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 24N92W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY...POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WITHIN 45 NM ALONG
THE COAST FROM JUST N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO TO VERMILION BAY
LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF BY WED
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF ON THU WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NEAR 29N88W TO 25N95W TO
21N98W FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR 8N60W ALONG 20N60W
THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N43W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN
71W-84W TO OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT
WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S PORTION OF HAITI INDUCED BY THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N67W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 33N76W TO 26N70W WHICH
IS INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N63W TO
TO BEYOND 32N61W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 62W-72W. A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE
LOW REMAINS NEAR 25N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N48W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N51W TO 23N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE
FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDS FROM 20N56W TO
15N57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC LATE TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM
32N72W TO 28N75W TO 28N81W LATE WED NIGHT MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC ON FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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