Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTED THIS
MORNING IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE TAIL OF A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW TO THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF N
AND NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY EARLY FRI MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N36W TO
01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
WITH BASE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW TO 25N86W...THEN ALONG THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN N ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF GENERATE A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGING ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. GALE-FORCE
WINDS STARTED THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND TO THE
CENTRAL GULF N AND NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY EARLY FRI
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN N ATLC
EXTENDS TO THE SE GULF AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. TO THE NE
OF PUERTO RICO...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SUPPORTS
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 20N59W EXTENDS SW AND COVERS THE REMAINDER
EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THIS LOW SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE LOW IN THE ATLC IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW JUST TO THE N OF
PUERTO RICO BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA SAT
MORNING...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE N TO NE
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE LESSER ANTILLES. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THIS REGION.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COVER THE NW
WATERS W OF 78W THROUGH EARLY SAT. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS A 1011 MB LOW OVER ATLC WATERS NE OF PUERTO RICO
APPROACHES THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN
PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS BY FRI MORNING AND THEN OVER
HISPANIOLA SAT MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE BASIN IS A 1011 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ATLC
WATERS NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N59W. THE LOW IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. THE LOW
WILL SHIFT SW TO NORTHERN PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THIS REGION FRIDAY. THEN WILL MOVE W TO OVER
HISPANIOLA SAT MORNING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SW N ATLC
WATERS THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH
EARLY SAT BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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