Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 222336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W ALONG 3N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 40W THEN ALONG
1N43W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 3N11W TO INLAND
OVER SW AFRICA NEAR 5N9W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 12W-14W AND FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 17W-26W.
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR 33W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL THEN NE INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW
ALOFT. A UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NE ARKANSAS
TO THE N GULF COAST AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE GULF FROM A 1012 MB LOW OVER S MISSISSIPPI ACROSS E
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ALONG 27N93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST N OF
TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE ALABAMA LINE
WHERE A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE SAME 1012 MB LOW. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING MOSTLY
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS RETREATING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL REACH FROM COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TO
COATZACOALCOS MEXICO TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE E OF GULF
MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN NE OVER THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF
83W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THIS IS
LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TUE.
MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE OVER W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOST OF
HAITI LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE GENERATING ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS S FLORIDA TO
BEYOND 32N77W. AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 30N77W
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR JACKSONVILLE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE FRONT IS BEGINNING
TO DRIFT S AS THE THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
30N75W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N57W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N60W TO
25N65W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E
OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE
AZORES. W ATLC STATIONARY/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE W
ATLC THROUGH MON NIGHT AND WILL REACH FROM 32N63W ALONG 29N65W
TO 28N74W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TUE NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUE SHIFTING E WITH THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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