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000
AXNT20 KNHC 042349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
S OF 04N BETWEEN 22W-30W...AND S OF 05N BETWEEN 38W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER TEXAS WITH ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF
29N98W. AS OF 04/2100 UTC...THIS SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N94W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 24N
BETWEEN 85W-96W. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW EASTWARD TO 26N87W AND CONNECTS TO AN ALREADY EXISTING
STATIONARY FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
ENTERING THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR THE TAMPA BAY REGION.
AS EXPECTED...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROVIDING A SECONDARY
PUSH OF ENERGY WITH A NEW COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
CENTER S-SW TO 21N96W. STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW
AND N QUADRANTS OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT BY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NE SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY FINALLY EXITING THE BASIN
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT W OF 70W. THE ONLY
NOTABLE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 76W-81W...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA. FARTHER EAST...REMAINING MID-
LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC DIPS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N63W HOWEVER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...20 TO 30 KT...NOTED IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ON THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES OF THE DAY AND THIS OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE QUIET WEATHER IS
LARGELY DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY
AIR AND STABLE AIR ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NEAR 33N59W THAT SUPPORTS AN ELONGATED FRONTAL TROUGH
ZONE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. THE
FRONTAL TROUGH FOCUSES ON A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N71W
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N W OF 67W. FARTHER EAST...A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 26N48W S TO A
BASE NEAR 17N53W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A WEAK 1018 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N51W AND AN ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO 22N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 46W-52W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE
AZORES NEAR 36N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN