Tropical Weather Discussion
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829
AXNT20 KNHC 050557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF
THE FRONT S OF 25N THROUGH 05/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N17W ALONG 2N26W 1N32W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR W OF 29W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT
MYERS NEAR 27N82W TO OVER THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG
25N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE HONDURAS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 81W-85W TO OVER W CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
LATE TONIGHT WEAKENING AS IT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT THEN RETURN N SAT AND PUSH BACK S
THROUGH THE AREA W OF 85W SAT NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FROM E CUBA TO
NE HONDURAS SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE MON.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN
TONIGHT. A LOW/SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE W FRI AND WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON THEN
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING N OF THE
ISLAND SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON AND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND BY SAT
MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING
FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N79W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC NEAR 21N76W TO BEYOND BERMUDA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N60W COVERING THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE ENTIRE CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N60W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 21N61W
CONTINUING S TO 15N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 16N54W TO 12N58W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO W CUBA FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO
CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN. A SURFACE LOW WILL
THEN DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT AND SEND A NEW COLD
FRONT EASTWARD FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN MORNING THEN
TO 32N65W TO E CUBA SUN NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING OVER C/CENTRAL
ATLC MON. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE N
PORTION OF THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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