Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 170559

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong arctic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico.
The front extends from near 30N86W to 26N91W to 21N97W. Cold
arctic offshore northerly flow behind the front is bringing near
gale-force winds with frequent gusts to gale-force over the
northwest Gulf tonight, and gale-force northerly winds are
expected near Tampico and Veracruz through early Wednesday. A
Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf waters. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters
Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 05N09W to
00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 00N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 100 nm of the ITCZ between



A strong arctic cold front has moved over the northwest Gulf. See
the Special Features section for more details. A ridge dominates
the remainder of the Gulf waters, and will shift eastward and
weaken overnight. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are
noted over the southeast waters and the Straits of Florida per
scatterometer data while mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere ahead of the front.


A stationary front remains across the western portion of the basin
extending from 20N78W to 12N83W. An area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms is noted in the vicinity of the front mainly west of
80W affecting Central America and central and western Cuba. Patches
of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are seen
across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea east of the front.
Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds behind
the front, and moderate to fresh trade winds east of the frontal
boundary, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the
coast of Colombia. The front will weaken and dissipate by this
morning. Moisture associated with the remnants of the front will
drift westward today, keeping showers possible over Central
America and the northwest Caribbean. Strong winds will pulse near
the northwest Colombia coast each night through Saturday night.


Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers will prevail for the next couple of days over the island
due to the influence of a ridge. A surface trough passing north
of Puerto Rico will produce little convection. Computer models
show increasing moisture across the island toward the end of the
work-week as a cold front approaches from the west.


A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N65W
to 22N77W. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are noted in
the wake of the front. These winds will gradually diminish tonight
as the front weakens. To the east, a weak 1018 mb low is centered
near 27N65W with a trough extending from it to 32N61W. Scattered
showers are noted in the vicinity of these features. Scattered
moderate convection has developed to the north of 27N between 57W-
62W ahead of a cold front to the north of the area. An upper-
level low is reflected at the surface as a trough that extends
from 31N45W to 24N45W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
along the trough between 40W-46W. The trough will drift westward
over the next 24 hours. Strong high pressure of 1039 mb is located
near Azores at 41N28W dominating the remainder of the basin. A
strong cold front will move off the southeast United States coast
today, then weaken as it reaches from near 24N65W to the Windward
Passage by Friday morning. Strong high pressure in the wake of
the front will bring strong northerly winds and building seas over
the northern of the Bahamas on Thursday.

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