Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 231751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR ZONE CANARIAS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN BETWEEN ISLANDS TODAY. BEAUFORT
7 OR 32KT-38KT WINDS ARE FORECAST. THE GALE IS DUE TO A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1039 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES
AND A 1004 MB LOW OVER W ALGERIA PRODUCING STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC
EXTENDING 09N31W TO 02N31W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF 09N WITH THE WAVE.
DRIER AIR IS NORTH OF 09N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 29N AND 33W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 5N29W. THE
ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 03N33W AND CONTINUES
THROUGH 04N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 03N
TO 09N BETWEEN 13W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N TO 05N BETWEEN 33W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT
28N80W TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N83W. A PAIR OF
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N97W TO 19N96W. THE
EASTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N92W TO 18N93W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N TO 26N WEST OF 96W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 87W OVER THE GULF BASIN. A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N
TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W...AND IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION DISCUSSED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. NORTHWESTERLY AND
SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS ARE OF DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W...AND S
OF 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. 15 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
CUBA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING ON
SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N71W AND
EXTENDS TO 29N76W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N61W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N45W TO 27N47W. ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1039 MB AZORES HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
AFRICA IS PRODUCING GALE WINDS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION REMAINING LIKELY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 30N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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