Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 251745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.0W
MOVING W OR 280 DEGREES AT AROUND 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMAL
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AND INTENSIFY WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30W BETWEEN 12N
AND 22N WITH A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 15N29W IS MOVING W AT 15
KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THAT THE WAVE AND LOW CENTER ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 27W-30W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IN THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDS E OF 40W FROM
THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 16N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 15N29W TO
13N40W. RANDOM ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 31W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA NEAR
30N83.5W TO 27.5N91W THEN STATIONARY TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N
95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT NEAR 91W-92W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS 30N99W TO THE VERACRUZ COAST
OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE SW GULF FROM 19N-23N W OF 94W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH THU THEN DRIFT NW AS A TROUGH THROUGH SAT. LIGHT N TO NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT...WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS E
OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE FROM DANNY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SE GULF AS A TROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANTS OF DANNY ARE DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 66-69W. MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR FRESH WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THU. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE NE CARIBBEAN LATE WED AND FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF DANNY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO PUERTO RICO THU
NIGHT AND FRI...WITH MAINLY PERIPHERAL EFFECTS IN THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND WILL DETERIORATE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF DANNY EXIT PUERTO RICO AND MOVE INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS TONIGHT AND WED MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 60W AND REACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WED NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N-NE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF DANNY ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 26N64W IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANOTHER TROUGH LINGERING FROM 24N79W NE ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS TO 31N69W IS TRIGGERING A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE STUBBORN TROUGH FROM
THE BAHAMAS TO BERMUDA TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE WITH FEWER
SHOWERS THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MUNDELL


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