Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 8W-
11W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W TO 25N93W TO E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N97W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE
NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
10-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER E NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-
89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. CONVECTION OVER
INLAND COLOMBIA AND INLAND VENEZUELA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N61W TO 22N66W
TO 20N69W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W AT 12 KT TO N OF HISPANIOLA AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-69W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO
24N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 29W-32W... AND
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE E TO 31N32W
IN 24 HOURS AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E LIKEWISE WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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