Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 092350

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 31.5N 39.6W at 09/2100
UTC about 735 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NE at 3 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Minimum central
pressure is 1005 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is NE of the center from 31N-34N between 36W-40W. See
the latest Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave in the E Atlantic along 28W is moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A
surface tough is well defined. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N-09N within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave along 61W/62W is moving W across the Lesser
Antilles at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by SSMI
TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb tough are both well defined.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 19N-22N
within 120 nm of the wave axis.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
10N24W to 07N38W. The ITCZ continues from 07N38W to 09N48W.
Besides convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 30W-41W.



A surface ridge extends SW across the basin from northern
Florida to southern Mexico. A weak surface trough in the N Gulf
extends from southern Mississippi to 29N92W, with minimal
convection. Expect the surface trough to move inland tonight. A
cold front associated with a low pressure system in N Oklahoma
will push off the Texas coast Tue evening with active convection
expected west of 95W.


A tropical wave is moving into the E Caribbean with isolated
convection mainly N and E of the wave axis. The eastern extent
of the Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate
convection over Costa Rica, Panama, and the SW Caribbean, S of
11N. 10-15 kt trade winds prevail over most of the Caribbean.
Expect an increase of convection over the E Caribbean as the
tropical wave moves west. Also expect convection over the SW
Caribbean to persist.


Persistent moderate heavy showers showers are occurring over
southern Haiti near 18N72W. Expect showers to diminish tonight,
with fair skies in the morning becoming mostly cloudy, and
scattered showers developing again in the southern part of the
island Tuesday.


Tropical Storm Ophelia is in the central Atlantic. See above.
A tropical wave is near the Virgin Islands, and another wave is
in the E Atlantic. See above. A surface trough over the central
Bahamas from 26N77W to 21N77W is devoid of convection. Another
surface trough is along 51W from 11N-18N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 14N-20N between 46W-51W. An upper level low
centered near 25N65W is enhancing convective activity from 22N-
27N between 56W-63W. A ridge in the central Atlantic is N of the
area between 43W-66W.

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