Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 100515

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1214 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

A cold front extends across the SW North Atlc waters from 32N72W
S-SW to central Cuba near 22N79W then to offshore of the coast of
Nicaragua near 13N83W. Strong high pressure continues to build in
N and W of the front across western Cuba...the NW Caribbean
Sea...and much of Central America this evening resulting in near
gale to gale force N winds generally S of 19N W of the front.
Through Monday as the front creeps eastward and eventually begins
to stall...the near gale to gale force N winds are expected to
bleed southward along the NE Honduras coast and slip along the
Nicaragua coast. By Tuesday...the remaining boundary will extend
from the Windward Passage region to the coast of Costa Rica with
fresh to strong N winds continuing to diminish gradually through
mid-week. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
05N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N22W to 05N33W to 02N42W. Isolated moderate convection is from
the Equator to 05N between the Prime Meridian and 16W.


A surface ridge axis extends across northern Mexico and the
Yucatan peninsula anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near
28N103W while the Special Features cold front has exited the basin
and remains across the SW North Atlc and western Caribbean Sea
waters this evening. Gentle to moderate N winds are noted W of
90W...and moderate to fresh winds are noted E of 90W. The ridging
will build in across the northern Gulf through Monday with
generally gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds expected across
much of the basin. By Tuesday...the next cold front will emerge
off the SE CONUS coast introducing a brief shot of fresh W-NW
winds to the north-central and eastern waters. The front will be
quick to clear east of the basin with moderate northerly winds
prevailing Wednesday into Thursday.

The primary feature across the basin is the cold front extending
across the western waters generating the near gale to gale force
northerly winds. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from 10N82W
to 16N80W and along with the front supports scattered showers and
tstms occurring generally between 74W-84W...E of the cold front.
Much of this convection is supported aloft by a divergent upper
level pattern with south-southwesterly flow occurring between the
middle to upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
supporting the cold front and an upper level anticyclone anchored
over the central Caribbean near 14N73W. East of the anticyclonic
circulation...dry northerly flow prevails providing overall
stability to the central and eastern Caribbean this evening. A few
isolated showers are noted on satellite imagery across the NE
Caribbean...but remain quick-moving and embedded within moderate
to occasional fresh trades. The front is forecast to stall across
the western Caribbean Sunday and begin to gradually weaken
through mid-week.

Fair weather conditions prevail across the island this evening as
a surface high centered in the central Atlc extends ridging
across the area. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring across
eastern Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters as a cold front is
expected to stall from the Windward Passage region to the SW
Caribbean through Monday.

Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery over the
SW North Atlc between a middle to upper level trough over the
eastern CONUS and eastern Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge
anchored over the central Caribbean Sea. The troughing supports
the Special Features cold front which extends from 32N72W to
central Cuba near 22N79W. Scattered showers and tstms are
occurring generally from 20N-32N between 70W-78W. Otherwise...the
remainder of the SW North Atlc waters are under the influence of
a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 36N49W.
Surface ridging also continues to build in west of the cold front
across the Florida peninsula and far western waters off the coast
of Georgia. Lastly...water vapor imagery indicates a cut-off
middle to upper level low centered near 25N41W that continues to
slowly retrograde. A surface trough extends from 20N40W to 30N39W
providing focus for scattered showers and widely scattered tstms
from 18N-30N between 30W-42W near and E of the trough axis. The
trough is forecast to drift westward across the central Atlc
through Monday.

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