Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 231737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
05N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N16W TO 02S30W TO A 1012 MB LOW N OF THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR
02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
06S-02N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NW GULF. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW
IS CENTERED OVER NORTH FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...WITH ITS COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE SW TO
25N89W TO 21N96W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N84W TO 19N92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N AND E OF 87W AFFECTING
THE E GULF WATERS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NORTHERLY SLIGHT TO
GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE A SLIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT AND TROUGH TO CONTINUE
MOVING SE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING FROM THE W ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING
SUBSIDENCE AND HENCE FAIR WEATHER. A STATIONARY 1017 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR 20N83W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES
DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 14N
BETWEEN 73W-77W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER REGIME TO PERSIST.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. IT ALL
BEGINS WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N76W. ITS COLD
FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N79W...THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 30N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 30N BETWEEN 62W-80W. TO THE
E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N68W TO 32N57W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
E OF THE FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 25N54W TO 34N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 28N BETWEEN 46W-49W. A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. WITH THIS...GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS E OF 54W WHILE A WEAKER AND VARIABLE
FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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