Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 180522

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near
09N13W and continues to 00N19W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone continues from 00N19W to 02S42W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection prevails along and within 150 nm on
either side of the Monsoon Trough between 10W-20W.



A 1024 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 30N69W
with a surface ridge extending across northern Florida to the
northern Gulf of Mexico along 30N. A 1019 mb surface high was
analyzed over the northeast Gulf near 29N84W. With this, a gentle
to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, with
strongest winds over the Straits of Florida. Latest radar imagery
depicts scattered moderate convection developing along the eastern coast
of Mexico reaching portions of southern Texas. This activity could
move offshore through the night, affecting the adjacent Gulf
waters. Little change in marine conditions is expected during the
next 48 hours, with a nocturnal surge of moderate to fresh winds
expected west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the overnight hours.
The surface high is expected to move west during the next 24


Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin, except
pulsing moderate to fresh northeast winds off the coast of
Colombia and across the approach to the Windward Passage.
Scattered moderate convection is developing from western Colombia
to across Panama and southern Costa Rica. In the upper levels, a
trough extends its axis roughly along 80W. With this, cloudiness
and scattered convection prevails east of the trough over
portions of eastern Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, as well as their
adjacent waters. Expect little change over the next 24-48 hours.


Scattered showers are moving across the eastern portion of the
island supported by an upper-level trough to the west, and with
upper-level diffluence which has been over the island. This
activity should diminish overnight, but similar conditions are
possible tomorrow.


A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N69W. To the
east, a gale-force low is centered to the north of the area
supporting near-gale wind north of 26N between 43W-53W. Seas in
this area are ranging between 15-22 ft. Its associated dissipating
cold front extends from 31N36W to 18N42W to 15N58W. No
significant convection is related to this feature at this time.
The gale-force low is forecast to move southeast during the next
24 hours, reaching 31N44W by this afternoon. Expect for the
associated cold front to dissipate by that time. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

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