Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 241956
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
256 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA MON AFTERNOON ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FRONT. A 500MB INVERTED TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST MON NIGHT AND MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TUES MORNING. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA MON NIGHT AS A RESULT
SO WILL MENTION LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS...MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WHILE A 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS BY MID WEEK AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE FROM NEAR 1.5 INCHES TO AROUND 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL WEAKNESS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE 500MB
TROUGH BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S
AT THE BEACH/ 95 TO 99 IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES/ AND 99 TO 103 IN THE
WEST...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 103 TO 108 RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF MON NIGHT AS A RESULT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
NO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  94  78  93 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  98  78  96 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            78 100  77  98 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 103  77 102 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  90  79  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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