Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 131731 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1231 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

High pressure will dominate from the North Gulf to over South
Texas, with a shallow short wave trough scooting across Texas and
east by mid this morning. Deep troughing will initially develop
over the Rockies and will then dip south over the Southwest United
States as a cutoff low. This will support a very southwest flow
aloft over the CWA. Baby short wave troughs will ripple overhead
through the broader flow, yet with nothing strong enough to
generate significant weather locally in the short term.

A generous portion of clouds will continue today, though slightly
less than before by this afternoon. Moderate south southeast breezes
will prevail in the short, with breezy conditions for the Lower RGV
on Thursday. Inland temps both days will be above normal in the 80s
and 90s while beach temperatures will be in the mid 70s. Rip current
risk may remain low today but increasing wave heights could increase
the risk to moderate on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

The forecast continues to focus in on a cold front moving through
the CWA this weekend followed by reinforcing surge of high pressure
to start next week.

A strong midlevel low digging into the Desert Southwest will
amplify the southwesterly flow aloft across Deep South Texas
through the weekend. A secondary low breaks off from the main low
on Thursday into Thursday night, while the main low will continue
to meander across the Desert Southwest through the remainder of
the period. The secondary low will track through the central
Plains and into the Great Lakes into the weekend bringing a cold
front through the region early Sunday morning.

As the aforementioned cold front moves into central Texas on
Friday, lift ahead of the boundary and perturbations in the upper
levels may be enough to increase rain and thunderstorm chances
Friday into Saturday along the northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande
Plains. A better chance of precipitation for the CWA will arrive
Saturday into Sunday along and behind the cold front and again
Sunday night into Tuesday, due to a few continuing perturbations
in the upper levels and overrunning. Along with the chance of
showers and thunderstorms, on Monday winds will once again
increase leading to breezy conditions, especially over the coastal
counties.

Temperatures will remain warm through Friday with highs in 80s/low
90s, with 70s and 80s for the weekend and lows generally in the 60s
and 70s. In wake of the front cooler air arrives Sunday night
into Monday with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s and 50s for
Monday and Tuesday nights. Daytime highs Monday and Tuesday will
be primarily in the 60s with a few 70s across the Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

MVFR ceilings at BRO are expected to lift early this afternoon,
then VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites through
the remainder of the afternoon. MVFR ceilings look to redevelop
tonight as cloud cover thickens and cloud bases lower to just
above IFR levels. Gusty southerly winds are expected to continue
at BRO and HRL this afternoon. Wind gusts look to temporarily
subside this evening, with wind gusts picking back up at all three
TAF sites around midnight, then continuing through the remainder
of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Today through Thursday...Based on forecasted increased afternoon
winds, posted a small craft advisory for the northern Laguna Madre
and northwest nearshore waters from 3 PM to 9 PM. Winds will weaken
tonight, but Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions will
still be possible in places. Sea fog will also have an opportunity
to develop tonight. Marine winds will again increase on Thursday,
and low end Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible in
spots.

Thursday night through Tuesday...Favorable conditions will
return to the waters off the lower Texas coast Thursday night
through the weekend. A cold front passage on Sunday will turn winds
out of the northeast and wind an seas will build into Monday. Small
Craft Advisories will likely be needed Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             85  71  85  72 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               89  68  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 92  71  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      76  69  76  69 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     84  69  83  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for GMZ132-135-
     155.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...60-BE


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