Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 021925
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
225 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE NOW...WITH AN EFFECTIVE END TO
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TODAY. TEMPS DROPPED ABOUT TEN
DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING THAT MUCH AND
THEN SOME. BREEZY NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATED THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST EARLIER TO REFLECT THE
LATEST TRENDS...AND BLENDED INTO THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
PERIODS.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE SHOWS OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S...THOUGH THIS MIGHT
BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION
AND STABILITY...SUGGESTING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY WEAK CLEARING...MOSTLY OUT WEST. BY WED
AFTERNOON HOWEVER...THE SUN SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH A REBOUND IN
HIGH TEMPS...(SEE BELOW).

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LARGE SCALE H5 RIDGE WILL
BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD BY MIDWEEK...WITH SFC HIGH STRETCHING
ACROSS TEXAS. RIDGE WILL REMAIN FIRM THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH
FINALLY BEGINS TO DRIFT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...OPENING THE DOOR
FOR GULF MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD. ONCE THE H5 RIDGE
AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST...THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE EFFECTS
OF THE LARGE H5 LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SWLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SPARK A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO STARTING SATURDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING AROUND
SUNSET...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND CAPPING FURTHER EAST WILL LIMIT
THE ADVANCEMENT ON SATURDAY. A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WITH GOOD DYNAMICS ACROSS THE MEXICO HIGHLANDS...GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF...AND WEAKER INVERSION TO THE WEST
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY. ONCE
THE H5 LOW EJECTS TO THE NE...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR END OF
FORECAST FOR NOW FOR UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH A SLOW RETURN
OF SELY FLOW. NO WEATHER SYSTEM FORMATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST
TEXAS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THIS PERIOD...SO GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN MODEST...WITH SE WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO HOLD BELOW 3 FEET THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  79  69  82 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          66  80  67  84 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            64  83  65  86 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN              67  84  66  89 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      63  84  63  90 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  75  72  79 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

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