Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 171733 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART...WITH ONLY A FEW
SMALL CU IN THE VICINITY OF KBRO. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE GONE BY
SUNSET...WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOT TODAY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS TOMORROW
WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SSW. SKIES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDY TOMORROW AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
VALLEY...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST...BUT SHOWER CHANCES WAY TOO LOW TO MENTION YET IN
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...EXTREMELY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF
TAFS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FINE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS EXPECTED. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A
CUMULUS FIELD TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND SUCCESSIVE
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR PATCHY LIGHT FOG AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...CLEAR SKIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE DEWPOINT AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
SUNRISE.

TODAY...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...IT
WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. COMBINED WITH 500 MB
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER THE BRO CWFA...DRY WEATHER
WILL RESULT. INCREASED INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVED TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY AND FOR BETTER
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFO CRP.

TONIGHT...A MARKED INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MAINLY
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...WILL COMBINE WITH CONTINUED SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG INLAND ONCE AGAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND
BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW OF DEEPER
MOISTURE.

SATURDAY...EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE...APPROACHING ROUGHLY 1.60 INCHES...
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE BRO
CWFA TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR BOTH THE INLAND AND OFFSHORE
AREAS. CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TOO MEAGER TO
HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO EXPECTED HIGHS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...UNSETTLED
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 80S DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET WITH
A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF LOUISIANA WILL REMAIN EXTENDED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOT LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT....MODERATE EAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT.

COASTAL FLOODING...BREEZY TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS
COMBINED WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES OF 1.7 TO 1.9 FEET MAY
RESULT IN MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING WITH OCCASIONAL RUN UP
INTO THE DUNES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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