Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 211018
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
418 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE ADVERTISED
POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
TEXAS SATURDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH 140+ KNOT UPPER JET IS NOTED ON ITS
WESTERN SIDE. SURFACE PRESSURES TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET TO INTENSIFY WHICH IN TURN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH
WINDS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LIMITED LIFT SO EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM EVEN WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SOME LIMITED
BREAKS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAYS OF SUNSHINE. AS MENTIONED SOUTH
WINDS TO INCREASE BECOMING BREEZY. LITTLE DECOUPLING TONIGHT WITH
THE LLJ INCREASING TO AROUND 35-40 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
AND MODERATE SOUTH WIND TO MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE
RGV MAYBE REACHING 70 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.


SATURDAY...INTERESTING DAY IN STORE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FIRST SPC HAS PLACED THE CWA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. INGREDIENTS ARE BECOMING MORE INLINE WITH
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF CAPPING INVERSION...ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG
AS THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL OUT WAY THE OTHER STRONG DYNAMICS
LIMITING THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DOES PLACE OF THE CWA IN
HEART OF THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL JET AND IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ENHANCING THE LIFT. WOULD EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO START
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 60-80 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPER CELLS. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 3-9 PM WITH THE NORTHERN RANCH
LANDS HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER BEFORE THE MAIN
LINE APPROACHES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A VERY HUMID FEEL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS IN THE MORNING LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL READING IN THE
AFTERNOON. PLEASE MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND CHECK THE NWS
WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MUCH CALMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED AS THE INITIAL SQUALL LINE
PULLS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. SUNDAY WILL SEE
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL HELP TO FURTHER DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS MARKING THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 60S...WITH CAA MODIFIED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY
SURGE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL GENERALLY JUST
REINFORCE THE DRIER AIR VALLEYWIDE. SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO TEXAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE GULF WATERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAGUNA LATER TODAY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS
STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE LAGUNA SEEING ANOTHER
ISSUANCE OF SCAS OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LAST PART OF THE SQUALL LINE
WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE MAIN PART OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SOME MODELS STILL PUSHING A
STRONGER FRONT THROUGH SO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 6 FEET DOWN TO 3. THE
REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WINDS BACK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  72  80  63 /  40  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          80  71  81  62 /  40  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            80  70  82  60 /  40  10  30  30
MCALLEN              81  69  84  60 /  30  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      81  68  85  58 /  20  20  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  73  79  67 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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