Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 012018
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
318 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...OUTFLOW AND
SEABREEZE DOMINATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PW
VALUES THIS MORNING WERE ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND STEERING FLOW WAS
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. WITH TROUGH AXIS IN THE REGION...AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE. CONVECTION WILL
END THIS EVENING FOR THE LAND AREAS...WHILE REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY
BEFORE DAWN...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

TROUGH AXIS REMAINS STEADY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH
INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HELPING TO ADD FURTHER LIFT TO THE
ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN
THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOW INITIATION STARTING ACROSS CAMERON
COUNTY THEN MOVING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE UPPED POPS FOR
TOMORROW TO HIGH END CHANCE...AND PUSHED TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WEST OF THE CWA. THIS RIDGE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SE PLAINS KEEPING INFLUX OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE S TEXAS REGION. AT THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INLAND OVER THE AREA WHICH WITH ENHANCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE FAVORABLE
AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND GULF WATERS. INTO FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE
OVER THE PAC NW. GULF MOISTURE MOVES ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON SAT AND
SUN BUT MAINLY OVER THE GULF AT THIS TIME. ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION ACTIVITY HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
MID TO LOW 70S. THE WEATER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SE FLOW AND
ENHANCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE NOW THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT AND
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
PAC NW. THIS WILL CAUSE FOR WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT NO
CONCERN OF SCEC OR SCA ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. THE SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA IN ADDITION TO
THE HIGH LEVEL OF MOISTURE CONTENT MOVING ONSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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