Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBRO 251949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PERSISTENCE IS THE
NAME OF THE GAME WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS
THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS OF COURSE MEANS
THAT THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS WHILE THOSE
AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM
105 TO 110 DEGREES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT
MUCH LIKE IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A STRONG...594 DECAMETER RIDGE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE SUBSIDENT AND STABLE AIR
MASS WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THE MODELS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE H5 TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK...FLATTENING THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
AND NUDGING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE EAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY...THE H5 RIDGE CENTER WILL SHIFT BACK
WEST TO OVER THE SOUTH WEST U.S. LATER IN THE WEEK. WHILE THE
IMPACT TO LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR...THE SHIFT COULD
OPEN THE DOOR TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND LAYER MOISTURE...
SUPPORTING A BIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...
AND EVEN A MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING.
STILL...RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE NOT SHIFTING TO A SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER RAIN CHANCE SIGNAL...AND POP AMOUNTS OVER LAND WILL
REMAIN SPARSE UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE MODELS DO BRING IN MORE
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST.

THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS REASONABLE AND THUS CONTINUED WITH THE
ONGOING THINKING. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 105 TO
110 DEGREES ON MONDAY...BUT WILL SETTLE DOWN NEARER TO 105 DEGREES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE LAGUNA MADRE
RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT NEEDING TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MDT SEAS ALONG THE LOWER
TX COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE
EACH AFTN DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  93  80  93 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  94  79  95 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            78  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              80 102  80 101 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 104  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  87  81  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

58/54


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.