Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 271751
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1251 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...Moderate southeast winds will persist through the
afternoon with winds diminishing to around 10 knots after sunset.
Light winds are anticipated tonight with MVFR cloud decks developing
by late this evening. Southeast winds will begin to strengthen by
mid-morning with VFR conditions developing after 15z.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...Surface winds have diminished to lighter levels while
cloud coverage has largely held off. Increasing winds and cloud
cover will occur this morning with VFR being the rule. These
conditions will then persist through the afternoon and until
sunset when winds will lay. Moderate winds are anticipated tonight
with MVFR cloud decks.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): An initially zonal 500 mb flow
over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will become more
oriented out of the southwest as closed mid-level low pressure
pushes into the Four Corners area. However, despite a breezy to
windy onshore flow off the adjacent Lower Texas Coast, not enough
moisture and instability will exist to produce precipitation during
the short term forecast period. The onshore flow will also help to
reinforce well above normal temperatures through the 36-hour
LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): 500mb low/trough across
the southwest United States/northern Mexico Tuesday will move
eastward across the southern plains Wednesday. Low to mid level
moisture will increase across east Texas towards the coastal bend
Tues night into Wednesday and convection will develop across
portions of west and southwest TX Tues night and move eastward
across portions of central and south-central TX Wed morning. The
best rain chances will remain northeast of the CWA through
Wednesday but will mention a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms across northeast portions of the CWA. Until the
upper level trough moves through the state Thursday...isolated
showers and thunderstorms will develop across portions of south TX
through Wednesday night. 500mb ridge across west TX Thursday will
provide subsidence across south TX Thursday and Friday before the
next 500mb low/trough moves eastward across southwest
U.S./northern Mexico Saturday producing a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the area through the rest of the
MARINE (Now through Tuesday): Buoy 42020 reported south winds
around 16 knots gusting to around 19 knots with seas slightly over
5.5 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 02 CDT/07 UTC. High pressure
and low pressure interaction will produce breezy winds and rough
seas along the Lower Texas Coast during the period. Small Craft
Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed.
Tuesday night through Friday...Moderate to strong southeast winds
will prevail across the coastal waters Tues night into early Wednesday
as low pressure across the Texas panhandle provides a strong
pressure gradient across the lower TX coast. Small craft
advisories will be needed for the coastal waters Tues night
through Wed morning. The pressure gradient will relax Wed
afternoon as a weak cold front approaches the coastal waters.
Winds will diminish Wed afternoon into Wed evening as a result.
Moderate southeast winds should prevail across the western Gulf of
Mexico Wed night before a weak cold front moves offshore the
lower TX coast Thursday. Light northerly winds Thursday will veer
to the east Thurs night and southeast Friday as high pressure
across the northwest Gulf moves eastward.
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