Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 261735
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
18Z SAT. FEW TO SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP 20 KNOTS. TONIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DECOUPLE WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CLD COVER OVER
THE RGV EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CLD DECK FORMING UP WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE LATEST NAM RUN SHOWS DRIER AIR CONTINUING
TO FILTER IN ALOFT OVER THE RGV AS A BROAD 500 MB CLOSED LOW
REMAINS LOCATED OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ONLY SOME SCT FAIR WX CU/SC LIKELY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...IR AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD 500 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS BROAD LOW
DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST TOWARDS THE TX COASTLINE THROUGHOUT TODAY
AND SAT. MEAN RH VALUES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW REMAIN PRETTY
LIMITED. THE LAST COUPLE OF BRO SOUNDINGS SHOW A GRADUAL DECLINE
OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE RGV. EXPECT THE MAIN CONV
THREAT TO BE LIMITED TO THE MARINE AREAS WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB MARINE LOW. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS MAINTAIN POPS IN THE 5 TO 10 % RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING LOW
PWAT. THE MET/MAV AND ECS SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH SAT. SO WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...AMPLIFIED H5
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE BALANCED BY TROUGHING EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI...WITH A LOW OVER OHIO AND A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL ARC SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THEN WEST ALONG THE GULF
COAST INTO EAST TEXAS. INVERTED H5 TROUGHING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO
AND A GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN RIDGING TO
THE WEST AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN TALKING
POINT OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE WEAKNESS WILL FADE TO THE
WEST BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT DEFINITELY BY EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE GULF...
PUSHING EASTERN TROUGHING BACK NORTH IN THE PROCESS.

CONVECTION WILL PRETTY MUCH BE AN ONGOING FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF DURING THIS TIME...BUT AS THE RIDGE ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WEST GULF...WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN FROM A GENERAL LIGHT CATEGORY TO MORE OF A
MODERATE CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY TO
INVADE THE CWA. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
SHOULD SEE MORE NIGHT TIME STREAMER SHOWERS AND BETTER DAY TIME
SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL AS THE GULF RIDGING WORKS ON ITS WESTWARD
EXPANSION. RIDGING WILL NEVER QUITE CONNECT ACROSS TEXAS FROM EAST
TO WEST...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN TO FRONT RANGE CONVECTION AND
MOISTURE FUELED GULF SHOWERS. COVERAGE WILL ALWAYS BE SCATTERED AT
BEST...AND WILL TEND NOT TO BE WELL ORGANIZED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY.

EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY...BUT INCREASING TO MODERATE
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN EXCEPT MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER RAIN CHANCES. WILL SEE AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE ON THOSE
TWO DAYS WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH MOVING UP
ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST. LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED...WITH SEASONAL 90S EACH DAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT
NIGHT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEX WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS AND FAIRLY LOW
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS. NO
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. GENERAL MID LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER SOUTH TEXAS
AND NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING
LOWER PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER...POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITION WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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