148
FXUS64 KBRO 072314 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
614 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Low to medium precipitation chances (20-40%) will continue through
Wednesday evening across Deep South Texas as an inverted trough
interacts with high moisture content and diurnal instability.
Isolated streamer showers may develop each morning, with showers
and thunderstorms becoming more scattered during the afternoon
hours with daytime heating. While severe weather is not expected,
thunderstorms will be capable of gusty winds around 40 MPH and
lightning. Additionally, robust showers and thunderstorms will be
capable of pockets of locally heavy rainfall given precipitable
water values are expected to increase to around 1.8-1.9 inches
along and east of US-281. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near
seasonal normals for early July across the region with highs
mostly in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values in the triple
digits are expected each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Toward the end of the week and into the weekend, precipitation
chances should come to an end as mid-level ridging builds
overhead. While an isolated shower or thunderstorm along the sea
breeze cannot be ruled out through the afternoon hours each day,
chances are fairly low (10% or less) at this time. The heat will
become the main weather story as temperatures gradually warm up
with increasing subsidence and humidity remains elevated as low
level southerly and southeasterly flow advects Gulf moisture
toward Deep South Texas. Slightly above normal temperatures for
early to mid July are expected into early next week, with highs in
the mid to upper 90s and lows in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees. In combination with the humidity, heat index values each
afternoon will range from 100-110 degrees. For anyone spending a
prolonged period outdoors, remember to practice heat safety to
prevent heat-related illnesses. Additionally, there are
indications among guidance of a plume of Saharan dust reaching
Deep South Texas by mid to late week, which may result in hazy
skies and some reductions in air quality.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through
the next 24 hours. Winds will diminish for the overnight hours
before becoming moderate on Tuesday. The next TAF issuance later
tonight may need to include a TEMPO for convection based on the
HRRR model.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through the
period with low to moderate seas and light to moderate winds.
There may be brief Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions during
the afternoon hours due to a locally enhanced pressure gradient
along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Otherwise, there
are low precipitation chances (20-40%) through Wednesday. Rain-
free conditions are expected heading into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  92  78  92 /  10  30  10  30
HARLINGEN               76  94  75  94 /  10  30  10  30
MCALLEN                 79  96  78  96 /   0  30   0  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  95  76  95 /   0  20   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  87  79  87 /  20  20  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  91  77  91 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$