Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 170540 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1240 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE DEVOID OF LOW CLOUDINESS...WHILE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE KBRO VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD AT AROUND 22K FEET. THE VAD WIND PROFILE ALSO
SHOWS STRONGER WINDS A COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL...AND WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AT BRO AND HRL...HAD TO
INSERT A NON-CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR COMPONENT AT THOSE AERODROMES.
BACKING MODERATE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. OVERALL...VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING AROUND 4500
FT THIS HOUR. BASED ON EVENING BALLOON DATA AND THE RATE OF
INCOMING MOISTURE EXPECT IT WILL BE HARD TO GET A PERSISTENT CLOUD
DECK BELOW 3000 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT AROUND 7 TO 12 KNOTS.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CEILINGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 3000 FT. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 137 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL RECOVERING ACROSS THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...THE
WIND MACHINE IS ON AGAIN THANKS TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO
RIDGING...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WHILE CLOUD COVER
INCREASES. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ESSENTIALLY BACK TO NORMAL
WITH MID 70S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S WEST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SOLID...THOUGH ERODING CAP.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEW POINTS SURGING WELL INTO THE 60S...LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDY
SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH...AND A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. POTENTIAL
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE CWA FROM THE WEST MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO THREATEN
RIVER COMMUNITIES IN THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. REFLECTED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OVER THE MID AND
UPPER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 60S.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED AS SMALLER IMPULSES RACE EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS. FRIDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE SOME GULF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR MINOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THIS WILL OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME THAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT ACROSS TEXAS...SUPPRESSION VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY WILL NEED TO SPARK ALONG THE
COAST IN DEEPER GULF MOISTURE...OR WILL HAVE TO DRIFT IN FROM THE
WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. HAVE KEPT A LOW END CHANCE FOR
POPS FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY LATE FRIDAY FOR THIS
SCENARIO...OTHERWISE CHANCES REMAIN LOW. THE NEXT MIDLEVEL TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING INSTABILITY
ALOFT. SFC FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY TO FIRE ON...SHOWERS WILL BE
MINIMAL...CONFINED TO THE COAST ON ANY STREAMER FORMATIONS. A
SMALL SHOWER CHANCE MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY...BUT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL BE RETURNING LATE MONDAY AND WILL DOMINATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTERACTING WITH GULF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY BUMP UP INTO EXERCISE CAUTION TERRITORY
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE MODERATE ON THURSDAY
WITH A FLATTER PRESSURE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BE
ON THE MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY AND WILL FILTER OVER NORTH TEXAS AND THE
NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO MODERATE EAST OR
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REASONABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE EASTER WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN
GULF. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH
DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODERATE WINDS WILL KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET FOR THE GULF AND PRODUCE A
MODERATE SHOP ON THE LAGUNA. NO ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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