Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 021150
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
550 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRONT QUICKLY MOVING
ACROSS THE RGV THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS. STRONG WINDS CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE ARE NOTED IN THE VWP WITH 55 KNOT WINDS AT 2000 FEET.
EXPECT WS OF 55 KNOT WITH FROPA AT AROUND 2000 FEET BUT IT
QUICKLY IMPROVES BY MID MORNING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
EARLY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE BIG HAZARD DECISION
CONTINUES TO BE FOR FIRE WEATHER...SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DRIFTS EAST AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AS OF THIS 08Z. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS PICKED BETWEEN 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 KNOTS NEAR
BRO WHICH IS WHAT WAS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARM UP A FEW DEGREES BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH RANGING LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL DROP INTO THE
MID 50S IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL CUT SHARPLY FOR AN HR OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT THEN PICK UP FROM THE W TO NW RIGHT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND MID MORNING BY
THE LOWER RGV.

LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF THE DECK WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE N TO NE AND
DIMINISH BY MID DAY WHICH ONLY GIVES POSSIBLE TWO HOURS OF GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH LOW LEVEL
MIN RH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
CWA. TONIGHT...AS CAA FILTERS IN COOLER AIR MASS WITH CLEAR SKIES
..EXPECT TEMPS TO LOWER INTO THE MID TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA
AND NEAR 50S IN THE LOWER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DESCEND INTO THE CWA KEEPING
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING
IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH THICKNESS
LOWERING...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE RGV
IN THE LOW 70S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST FINALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EXCITING. ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL BECOME SCATTERED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST DEVELOPS AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PULLING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE BRO CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW OFF
TOWARDS THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH THROUGH
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
USHER IN DRY WEATHER AT THAT TIME AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS MAP APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AND
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED WITH THE LOW AND
FRONT...AN ENHANCED RISK OF WILDFIRE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR...BUT
THESE POSSIBILITIES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A MORE NEAR NORMAL TREND IN DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY... CAUTION CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 KNOTS CONTINUE OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS
TODAY WITH SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK IN THE WINDS LOWERING TO LESS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
FROPA BUT BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT WINDS BACKING N TO NW WIND WITH
SEAS REMAINING AROUND 6 TO 7 FEET. INTO TONIGHT THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS KEEPING A NORTH FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS KEEPING SEAS AT
AROUND 6 FEET BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT DESCENDS
INTO S TEXAS WILL INCREASE N WINDS OVER THE GULF BUILDING SEAS
ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO SCA. AT THIS TIME SCA ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A PERSISTENT REINFORCING COLD AIR
SURGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE ADVERSE WIND AND SEA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR GALE WARNING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS
AND SEAS FOR MONDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...LOW HUMIDITY...WIND AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN STILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SOME DEGREE OF FIRE GROWTH TODAY...SO RECOMMENDED
TO BE VERY CAREFUL IF SCHEDULING ANY BURNS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE RH RECOVERIES EARLY TODAY WILL BE POOR ACROSS THE
WEST RANGING FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH IS ALREADY AGGRAVATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE WITH MORE DRYNESS. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT MINIMUM RH VALUES TO LOWER BELOW 20 PERCENT TODAY. WINDS
WILL CUT SHARPLY FOR AN HR OR TWO ALONG THE FRONT THEN PICK UP
FROM THE W TO NW RIGHT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND MID MORNING BY THE LOWER RGV. LOW
LEVEL WINDS OFF THE DECK WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE N TO NE AND
DIMINISH BY MID DAY WHICH ONLY GIVES POSSIBLE TWO HOURS OF GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. EVEN THOUGH RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW THE TEENS...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE LOWERING
BELOW 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.
LEAN TOWARDS ISSUING ANOTHER RFD FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL WILLACY AND COASTAL CAMERON.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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