000
FXUS64 KBRO 040527 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1127 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY LOW CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT FOG HAS AFFECTED THE BRO
AND HRL AERODROMES EARLIER THIS EVENING AND RIGHT NOW DUE TO SEA FOG
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MOVING INLAND AND RISING. THEREFORE...
THE PREVIOUS TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. ADDITIONAL FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING A TREND THAT HAS PREVAILED
FOR THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WHILE A TEMPO PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG HAS BEEN
CONTINUED FOR BRO AND HRL...MORE SUSTAINED FOG IS ANTICIPATED FOR
MFE...WITH A TEMPO PERIOD OF MORE DENSE FOG EXPECTED. LIFR AT MFE IS
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FOG. TOMORROW...SUNSHINE AND WINDS
INCREASING TO BREEZY LEVELS WILL DISSIPATE THE FOG...LEAVING VFR IN
PLACE. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...POSSIBLY MORE DENSE THAN EXPECTED
TONIGHT...IS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...OVERNIGHT FOG HAS FORMED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT TREND WILL NOT CONTINUE FOR
TONIGHT. WHILE A TEMPO PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR
BRO AND HRL...MORE SUSTAINED FOG IS ANTICIPATED FOR MFE...WITH A
TEMPO PERIOD OF MORE DENSE FOG EXPECTED. LIFR CONDITIONS AT MFE
ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FOG. TOMORROW...SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THE FOG...LEAVING VFR IN
PLACE. THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY INCLUDE
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...POSSIBLY MORE DENSE THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...RELATIVELY ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
INTER MOUNTAIN WEST...EAST OF A BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC. WHILE THE IMPLICATIONS ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE
LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE LOCALLY THROUGH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FOG...THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WHICH WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD TONIGHT AND MORE SO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THOUGH DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN OUT WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE UPPER
VALLEY AND RANCH LANDS TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL PLAY A LARGE
ROLE...WITH LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS NOW ON TAP...THOUGH A FEW
MPH ONE WAY OR THE OTHER COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER
WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FILLING INTO THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH INCREASING CAPPED OFF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCOMING...LARGER AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING LOCALLY DENSE... WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE. OTHERWISE...FEW TO SCT MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BASED CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST...WITH
THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS AT THE INVERSION TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
60S TO NEAR 70 TONIGHT...WITH MID 80S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT ON
TRACK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

POINT SOUNDINGS AND SREF LOW CLOUD/LOW VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT
AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BREAK OUT
FOR A RELATIVELY NICE DAY /CALM BEFORE THE FRONT/...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S. ATTENTION THEN TURNS NORTH FOR THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH SHOULD ENTER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CLEAR THE LOWER VALLEY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON /DEPENDING ON
MODEL OF CHOICE WITH MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASING/. STILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT...TRANSITIONING TO A
MORE STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL PULL THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE WITH DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WORKING IN
FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MODELS
ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE ON A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MONDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

ECX AND MEX GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN COLDER SO HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THAT WAY. STEADY TO
FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WITH
BRIEF WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY BEFORE FALLING TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT. THOSE IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY SHOULD NOT BE
FOOLED WITH THE MIDDLE 60S AT DROPOFF FOR SCHOOL FRIDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AT PICKUP SO THE YOUNG ONES
SHOULD TAKE A LIGHT JACKET. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 30S A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OVER
NORTHERN JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES AT DAWN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE VALLEY
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEY. A WARMUP FOR SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A GENERAL ANTICYCLONIC PRESSURE
PATTERN BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND OVER THE
WEST GULF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY BECOME HAZARDOUS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUST AS WELL.
SEA HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY JUMP TO 10-12 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ABOVE 7 FOOT SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          70  82  71  82 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            68  84  68  83 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              68  87  69  85 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      66  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   72  79  72  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
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