Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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738
FXUS64 KBRO 200907
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
407 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): The stationary front that is
draped over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico extends southwest to
near the Brownsville area early this morning. Convection continues
to fire well south of the RGV and has been creeping back north
edging closer over the last several hours. The stationary front will
weaken later today and tonight as 500 mb ridging builds over the
south central plains in response to closed lows moving over the
Pacific NW and the Great Lakes states. As this 500 mb riding builds
the atms will gradually stabilize with the deep layer moisture
levels diminishing. The closeness of the old stationary front will
combine with daytime heating and lingering CAPE over the region to
allow for one more day of sct conv. Will go with a 3 way blend of
the gfs/nam and ecmwf pops throughout the short term with pops
trending down to slgt chc on Sat.

As the atms starts to dry and stabilize through Saturday overall
temps will start to warm up. The NAM and the ECWMF come in warmer
versus the GFS numbers and will go closer to a blend of these two
models.

The severe weather potential will be on the decrease today with the
loss of the upper level support over the RGV. Some weak 500 mb PVA
will move over the region later today. But believe that the much
better 500 mb dynamics will continue to shift away from the region
allowing the svr conv potential to be more marginal.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): 500mb ridging
continues to build across Texas Saturday night into Sunday.
Lingering low level moisture along with daytime heating will support
isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday. Drier
weather will develop Sunday night and continue through midweek as
the mid level ridge axis prevails over Deep South Texas. Rain
chances begin to increase Wednesday night into Thursday as the ridge
moves east and southwest flow aloft increases. Above normal daytime
high and overnight low temperatures can be expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE: Now through Saturday...Weak surface ridging will remain
in control over the western Gulf of Mex through Saturday. This
will maintain a light to moderate e-se surface flow across the
lower TX Bay and Gulf waters. No SCA conditions expected through
Saturday.

Saturday night through Tuesday night: Moderate winds and seas
will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the period with
high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. Periods of Small
Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisory conditions may
develop Monday through Tuesday night as the pressure gradient
begins to strengthen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  87  77  88  78 /  40  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          89  77  92  77 /  40  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            89  75  93  77 /  40  20  20  20
MCALLEN              91  75  95  77 /  40  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  75  96  76 /  40  30  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  78  83  78 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short term...60
Long term...63
Graphics/Upper air...65



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