Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 110940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
340 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): The respite from the recent cold,
rainy, and eventually snowy weather will continue during the short
term portion of the forecast. Weak 500 mb ridging over central
Mexico will ease closer to the BRO CWFA during the period. However,
deep mid-level troughiness over the eastern half of the United
States will help a cold front come through Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley on Tuesday. Even with the cold front passage, dry
weather is anticipated with cloudiness limited to mainly high cirrus
streaming overhead from the west. Temperatures closer to near normal
are also anticipated aided by the front and no significant onshore
flow from the neighboring Gulf of Mexico.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): A mainly quiet weather
pattern will prevail through much of the forecast period. A
nearly zonal flow aloft will persist through late week. Surface
high pressure will build across Texas Tuesday night bringing light
winds and slightly below normal low temperatures. High
temperatures Wednesday will be near normal, in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees. Moisture begins to increase Wednesday night
into Thursday as surface high pressure moves east over the Gulf of
Mexico. The next cold front arrives Thursday night with some
slightly cooler air filtering into the region in behind the front.
The latest GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement with the
overall pattern including very low rain chances through Thursday.
This GFS is quicker with lifting out the 500 mb trough axis as the
ECMWF is slower and also develops a weak surface low along the
front. Some differences in temperatures and pops continue between
the models late in the week into the weekend.

Overall, near to above normal temperatures are expected Thursday
through the weekend. High temperatures will generally be in the 70s.
Overnight low temperatures initially start in 40s to lower 50s
Wednesday morning will gradually moderate into the 50s towards the
weekend. Rain chances will remain nil through Wednesday night with
rain chances increasing on Thursday with lingering rain chances
through the weekend.


.MARINE (Now through Tuesday): Buoy 42019 reported west-northwest
winds around 4 knots gusting to around 6 knots with seas slightly
under 1 foot with a period of 4 seconds at 03 CST/09 UTC. Surface
high pressure will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast today and
tonight before the passage of a cold front on Tuesday. Increasing
winds and building seas are expected in association with the front,
but Small Craft Advisory and Small Craft Exercise Caution are not
expected to be needed at any time during the forecast period.

Tuesday Night through Saturday: Moderate north winds and low to
moderate seas will continue Tuesday night in the wake of the front.
Favorable marine conditions will prevail Wednesday and Thursday with
light and variable winds and low seas. Another slightly stronger
cold front moves through the lower Texas coastal waters Thursday
night. Moderate to strong north winds and building seas will develop
with the passage of the front. Small Craft Exercise Caution likely
with Small Craft Advisories possible Thursday night and Friday.
Light onshore winds will gradually increase and become southeast on
Saturday. The moderate and steady southeast flow will build seas on
the Gulf waters to near Exercise Caution conditions by Saturday


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  48  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          75  48  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            74  45  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              75  47  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  45  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  56  70  56 /   0   0   0   0




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