Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 070553 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1253 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BY
MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20
KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. /67-MT/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST HAS OCCURRED AMIDST LOWER LAYER WINDS WITH
WINDS UP TO ABOUT 7000 FT BLOWING FROM SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST
ACCORDING TO THE KBRO VWP. THIS HAS RESULTED IN BOTH A MORE DIFFUSE
SEABREEZE WITH THE FLOW RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE SHORE AND DRYING IN
THAT LAYER...WHICH HAD ALREADY STARTED BY THE EARLY MORNING
SOUNDING. RAIN CHANCES ARE DONE FOR THE DAY WITH ONLY A FEW FLAT CU
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES HEADED INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...AND UPPER 90S WEST. WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO UP TODAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.

TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS WITH LOW TEMPS PERHAPS A DEGREE OR SO WARMER AS A RESULT.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF THAT DRIER
LOWEST 6000 FT OR SO.

MONDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE BY TOMORROW WITH
DEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES LEADING TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DRIER AND WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWER POPS LIMITED TO THE TRADITIONALLY FAVORED ZONE ALONG A
TRIANGLE FROM RAYMONDVILLE TO HEBBRONVILLE TO SARITA AND DRY
ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WARM DAY THAT LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY ALL
IN ALL.

MONDAY NIGHT...A LIGHT BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT RIDGING SHOULD
STAY WEAK ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO KEEP IT FROM BEING MUCH MORE THAN
THAT. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LIMITED HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET...SAVE OF COURSE RIGHT AT THE GROUND.
/68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WEAK 500MB INVERTED
TROUGH/LOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS/NORTHEAST MEXICO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAYS BUILDS INTO SOUTH TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WIND SPEEDS ARE UP COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS APPROACHING EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
LOW SEAS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MARGINAL
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE MONDAY. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AGAIN ON THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  78  92  79 /  10  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          94  77  92  78 /  10  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            95  76  95  77 /  10  10  20  10
MCALLEN              96  77  96  77 /  10  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      96  76  96  76 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  79  88  80 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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