Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 141926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
226 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): Light easterly flow at the
surface will bring only a few showers to the area this afternoon and
evening along the developing seabreeze, evident on visible satellite
imagery, as most of the atmosphere above 850mb remains dry. 500mb
high pressure will remain over the northern Gulf coast with weak
inverted surface troughing over the central Gulf, bringing an
increase of rain chances over the coastal waters through the
weekend. The main impacts in the next 24 hours will be the potential
for more fog development overnight into Sunday morning. Light to
calm surface flow with a shallow layer of moisture at the surface
beneath strong subsidence will lead to areas of fog, especially in
the middle Rio Grande Valley and northern Ranchlands. Motorists
should use caution and plan for longer commute times in the morning.

Sunday, winds will turn out of the north during the day ahead of an
approaching cold front. The stronger pressure gradient will
accompany the boundary later in the evening and into Monday morning
with northerly winds expected to increase. Even with an increase in
moisture ahead of the front, not expecting widespread precipitation
with this front with too much dry air and forward movement, so have
kept PoPs between 20 and 40%. Temperatures will also be around
normal to a couple degrees below normal on Sunday with additional
cloud cover and a northerly wind shift expected. Monday morning will
feel much cooler with lower dew points and temperatures falling into
the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): The period begins with post-
frontal drier low level northerly flow across much of Deep South
Texas with remnant showers/thunderstorms over the extreme
southeast portion of the forecast area associated with a surface
cold front that will be poised to exit the region to the south.
Clouds, precipitation, and modest cold air advection that proceed
along with the front during the day will restrict highs on Monday
to the upper 70s at the coast with lower/mid 80s out west.

For Tuesday, early morning lows will be somewhat chilly out west
as the day starts off in the mid 50s. Low temperatures near the
coast will be somewhat below or closer to normal in the lower to
mid 60s. Dry low level northerly flow in place across the region
will begin to weaken and veer to the east as the pressure gradient
relaxes in response to strong surface high pressure building over
Deep South Texas. Due to building high pressure, shifting winds,
and sunnier conditions during the day, the airmass will quickly
begin to moderate from the cooler air brought into the area on
Monday. Highs on Tuesday will range from the lower 80s at the
coast with mid 80s inland and west.

For Wednesday through Saturday, precipitation-free conditions will
prevail as high pressure builds aloft and the low level flow becomes
increasingly onshore. This will bring a day-to-day warming trend
with the trend reaching a maximum late in the week, which will
continue into the weekend. Highs on Wednesday will generally
range from the lower/mid 80s at the coast with mid/upper 80s
inland and west. Highs Thursday through Saturday will range from
the mid 80s at the coast with lower 90s inland and west.


.MARINE (Now through Sunday night): Light surface flow and low seas
of 2 to 3 feet will continue across the Gulf waters through the
first half of Sunday before northerly winds increase the rest of the
day. After sunset, winds of 20 to 25 knots will be possible with
Small Craft Advisories expected through Monday morning.

Monday through Wednesday: Period to start off with Small Craft
Advisory conditions across the waters of the Lower Texas Coast,
mostly in terms of waves, in the wake of a strong cold front that
will have pushed south of the region late Sunday. Waves slowly begin
to subside Tue/Wed as the pressure gradient across the northwest
Gulf relaxes and the low level flow turns onshore.




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