Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 261945
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO TREK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...REMNANTS
OF THE LARGER ACTIVITY THAT WAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.

RIGHT NOW THE CUTOFF H5 LOW IS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE BIG
BEND REGION...WITH AN IMPULSE WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
HEADING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED...AND IS
VERY WEAK AS EXPECTED. THE IMPULSE WRAPPING INTO THE REGION WILL
START TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH GOOD CHANCE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN LOCALIZED LOCATIONS. MY ONE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE H5 LOW...WHICH IS MAKING SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END. THE DRY AIR WOULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BUT WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF
THUNDER IN THE REGION. SO CONTINUOUS RAINFALL NO LONGER A GIVEN
ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATER HOUR TOMORROW. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TOMORROW TO AGAIN HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AS THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUN. LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN DRIER WEATHER AND THE RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST ON TUE...
WITH A MORE ROBUST SOUTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY UNDER A MID LEVEL TROUGH... PREVIOUSLY A
MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEVADA... SHIFTING EAST...WITH THE UNDERLYING
LOW AND ATTACHED COLD FRNT MOVING MORE EAST TO WEST THAN SOUTH...
BUT WITH THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL A
THREAT TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY FROM COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE. GENERAL LONG FETCH SEAS WILL RUN 4 TO 5 FEET...BUT
AGITATION FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADD ANOTHER FOOT TO
WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...SO MARINERS ARE ADVISED
CAUTION. WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AGITATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE
GULF WILL EXTEND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODERATE SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COASTAL FLOODING...A LONG FETCH OF BREEZY WINDS FROM THE EAST
WILL OCCUR OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEX THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE RUN BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
THE COMBO OF THE WINDS...PRODUCING ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST AND
THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ON THE BEACHES THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT
HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  86  76  87 /  60  70  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          74  86  74  87 /  50  70  20  20
HARLINGEN            73  86  73  87 /  50  70  20  20
MCALLEN              73  87  73  87 /  60  60  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      73  85  73  86 /  60  60  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  84  77  86 /  60  70  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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