Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 230410
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1010 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...00Z RAOB AND THE LAST FEW HOURS OF OBS AND SATELLITE
DATA SHOW GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BIG BEND REGION MOVES INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS WILL ARRIVE AROUND MID MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY/STRONG WINDS OVER THE RGV METRO AREAS...WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY PUSHING 35 TO 40 MPH...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INCLUDE A
LITTLE STRONGER WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OR PART OF THE RGV
BUT THAT LIKELY WOULDNT START UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL LET
THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT FURTHER EVALUATE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIVING THE BUS IS JUST A BIT BEHIND SCHEDULE EVEN IN THE 00Z NAM
GUIDANCE AND THINGS MAY NOT OVERLAP EXACTLY AS PLANNED...LEADING
TO LIGHTER WINDS.

MARINE WISE COLD WATER WILL MAKE MIXING OF GALE FORCE GUSTS A
LITTLE STRONGER BUT WITH 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING 925MB WINDS AT 33 TO
37 KTS ONCE THE 850/925MB TROUGH AXIS CLEARS FELT IT PRUDENT TO
HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THE THREAT OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL START ABOUT 8 TO 10 AM AND PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. /68-JGG/

&&

.MARINE...VERY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGHENING SEAS CONTINUE WITH
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A HIGHER CHANCE
OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS BEGINS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AND HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS CIGS FALL FROM MVFR TO IFR BY MIDNIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE PREVAILING OR POSE SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL CONCERNS. POOR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NIGHT SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CIGS RISE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIKELY TO VFR LEVELS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PRETTY STEADY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 21 HOURS OR SO BEFORE STARTING TO SETTLE DOWN. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT OVERCAST SKIES WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FORECAST WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S. A MID LEVEL LOW POSITIONED
ROUGHLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AND EJECT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE BRUNT OF THE UPPER LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED
NORTH OF THE CWA AND... WITH THE COLD LOW LEVEL AIR NOW FILTERING
INTO THE CWA...THE LOCAL DYNAMICS WILL BE PRIMARILY THAT OF OVER
RUNNING.

COLDER...DRIER AIR FROM UPSTREAM WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT FILTERS
TOWARD DEEP SOUTH TX TONIGHT...RETAINING ITS DRIER CHARACTERISTICS.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAX
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLDY
SKIES THOUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE TRANSITING OVERHEAD BY AFTN...
WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO
AROUND 40 FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH
VERY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...LONG TERM CONDITIONS
REMAIN GENERALLY TRANQUIL AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER RIDGING
ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE NW GULF THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE JUST EDGING THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE
RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE REMAINING FOR SATURDAY
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER THIS WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
QUICKER WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT AND SFC LOW PROGRESSING UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD GET THE DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MODEL PROFILES SHOWING ONLY DEEPER
MOISTURE ALOFT IN THE HIGH CIRRUS RANGE. MOIRE MOISTURE WRAPPING
INTO THE REGION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
ALLOW CIRRUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ALL
WEEK WILL GENERALLY REACH THE 70S.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ASSOCIATED SURGE OF HIGH PRES
WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS OF THAT
STRENGTH SHOULD BE SPORADIC AND A GALE WARNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TOP OUT AT UP TO 12 OR 13 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE A VERY TRANQUIL
PERIOD FOR MARINE CONCERNS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF...PROVIDING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  48  54  43  62 /  40  20  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          48  56  42  64 /  40  20  10   0
HARLINGEN            48  57  41  65 /  40  20  10   0
MCALLEN              48  58  41  65 /  40  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      47  58  39  65 /  30  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   50  54  47  60 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ130-
     132-135.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ150-170.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ155-175.

&&

$$

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