Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 091753 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1153 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

...18z Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...The primary story will be surface winds gusting to
around 20kts or so this afternoon and evening. Winds will begin to
weaken later this evening around sunset. Otherwise, expected VFR
clear skies expected through the period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Dry northwest flow aloft and at
the surface will maintain below normal temperatures across deep
south Texas through the forecast period. High temperatures today
and Sunday are expected in the mid to upper 60s, a few locations
may reach 70 degrees on Sunday. Low temperatures tonight will
range from the upper 30s across northern ranchlands to the mid 40s
at the beaches. Rain-free conditions will prevail across the
region through Sunday.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): Weak ridging will
continue in the mid-levels across South Texas with models keeping
a Rex Block over the Pacific Coast of California through much of
the week. This will maintain WNW flow aloft with dry air and
subsidence above 850mb through mid-week. Models bring a weak front
through on Tuesday with virtually no impacts aside from a drop in
temperatures by a couple degrees. As the surface high shifts to
the east, SE flow returns on Thursday with a better moisture
return during the day. A shortwave trough will move through
Southeast Texas with another cold front possibly late Thursday,
so have added slight chance PoPs to the eastern half of the area.
Our next chance of precipitation will be at the end of the long
term period next weekend as WSW flow and deeper moisture return.
Temperatures will be below normal with highs in the low 70s and
lows in the 40s for much of the week as dry air and northerly flow
dominate.

MARINE (Now through Sunday): Hazardous marine conditions continue
for the offshore Gulf waters this morning due to strong northwest
winds and rough seas. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for
the lower Texas Gulf waters 20 to 60 NM east of Padre Island until
noon today. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution on the Gulf waters
out 20 NM east of Padre Island for elevated seas this morning. Much
improved winds and seas are expected tonight and Sunday as the
pressure gradient continues to weaken.

Sunday night through Thursday: Light to moderate winds will
return next week with a weak front possibly moving through late
Tuesday with a brief wind shift to the northeast. A stronger front
is possible by the end of the week with seas building from 1 to 3
feet to 4 to 6 feet.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ170-175.

&&

$$

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